2012 United States Senate election in Indiana explained

Election Name:2012 United States Senate election in Indiana
Country:Indiana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 United States Senate election in Indiana
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2018 United States Senate election in Indiana
Next Year:2018
Turnout:58.5%[1]
Election Date:November 6, 2012
Image1:File:Congressman joedonnelly (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Joe Donnelly
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,281,181
Percentage1:50.04%
Nominee2:Richard Mourdock
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,133,621
Percentage2:44.28%
Image3:Andy Horning.png
Nominee3:Andy Horning
Party3:Libertarian Party (United States)
Popular Vote3:145,282
Percentage3:5.68%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Richard Lugar
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Donnelly
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2012 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Richard Lugar ran for reelection to a seventh term, but was defeated in the primary by Tea Party-backed Richard Mourdock. U.S. Representative Joe Donnelly, a Democrat from Indiana's 2nd congressional district, was unopposed in his party's primary, and then defeated both Mourdock and Libertarian Andrew Horning in the general election.

As of, this is the last time Democrats won any statewide election in Indiana, and the most recent Senate election in which an elected incumbent was defeated in the primary.[2] This election is also the most recent time a party would flip a Senate seat in a presidential election year without carrying the state in the concurrent presidential election. In addition, with Republicans flipping Indiana's other Senate seat two years earlier, this election is the last time a party would flip a Senate seat in a state whose other seat was flipped by the opposition party in the previous election cycle.

Background and overview

On November 7, 2006, incumbent Richard Lugar was unopposed by any major party candidate as no Democrat filed for the May 2006 primary. He was re-elected to his sixth six-year term with 87.3% of the vote.[3] After the 2012 election, Lugar would have had an even chance, according to Senate Republican Conference rules, to be elected as its president pro tempore.[4] However, the issue was rendered moot with Lugar's primary loss on May 9, 2012, as Indiana state law prohibits candidates from running for an election after losing a primary. Time featured the race in their "Fury of the Senate" article. The article mentioned how Donnelly was lucky that Mourdock won out in the primary against Lugar, a well-liked centrist member of the GOP. Another boost came when Mourdock's remarks regarding rape helped propel Donnelly to victory.

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 8, 2012.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Campaign

Due to Lugar's unpopularity among some Tea Party voters because of his positions regarding illegal immigration, voting to confirm then-U.S. Supreme Court nominees Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, the DREAM Act, the New START Treaty, some gun control bills, and congressional earmarks, he was challenged by a Tea Party-backed candidate.[10] [11]

The Indiana Debate Commission's GOP primary debate with Sen. Richard Lugar and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock was set to air at 7 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, April 11.[12] In a widely published poll taken March 26 to 28, Lugar was still in the lead, but by the time of a second published poll from April 30 to May 1, Mourdock was leading 48% to 38%.[13]

Mourdock defeated Senator Lugar in the Republican primary on May 8, 2012.[14] [15]

According to Indiana law, Lugar's defeat meant that he would not be permitted to run in the election either as a third party or an independent candidate after he lost the primary.[16]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Richard
Mourdock
Richard
Lugar
Undecided
align=left Basswood Research (R)[17] July 23–24, 2011500±4.4%34%32%34%
align=left American Viewpoint (R)[18] July 27–28, 2011600±4.0%31%45%23%
align=left Howey Politics/DePauw University[19] March 26–28, 2012503±4.5%35%42%28%
align=left Howey Politics/DePauw University[20] April 30 – May 1, 2012700±3.7%48%38%14%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Donnelly was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

General election

Candidates

Debates

Confirmed debates with Donnelly, Horning and Mourdock are:[25]

Date: Monday, October 15
Broadcast time: 7 p.m. EDT
City: Indianapolis
Venue: WFYI-TV (in studio/no live audience)

Date: Tuesday, October 23
Broadcast time: 7 p.m. EDT
City: New Albany
Venue: Paul W. Ogle Cultural & Community Center, Indiana University Southeast (live audience – seating up to 500)

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
(D)$5,572,319$5,496,760$95,578$0
(R)$8,982,053$8,698,721$283,332$0
(L)$4,907$2,905$2,005$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[26]

Top contributors

Joe DonnellyContributionRichard MourdockContribution
Faegre Baker Daniels$30,942Club for Growth$290,815
MacAndrews & Forbes$29,500Senate Conservatives Fund$58,728
Renco Group$27,400Koch Industries$30,000
Barnes & Thornburg$22,601Murray Energy$15,000
University of Notre Dame$20,150Lucas Oil$11,400
MWH Global WPP plc$17,000ESOP Association$10,750
Eli Lilly and Company$16,912Blue Cross Blue Shield Association$10,250
Power, Rogers & Smith$16,000American Bankers Association$10,000
Mid Manhattan PAC$13,750ExxonMobil$10,000
Patton Boggs LLP$13,083Citizens United$10,000
Source: OpenSecrets[27]

Top industries

Joe DonnellyContributionRichard MourdockContribution
Lawyers/law firms$463,098Republican/Conservative PACs$474,661
Leadership PACs$298,000Leadership PACs$305,607
Retired$192,716Retired$244,206
Lobbyists$109,987Oil & gas$132,530
Building trade unions$77,000Financial institutions$90,200
Financial institutions$100,235Commercial banks$88,430
Education$91,563Health professionals$86,567
Building trade unions$63,500Misc. finance$64,815
Public sector unions$87,000Manufacturing industry$60,200
Political action committees$63,798Real estate$58,290
Source: OpenSecrets[28]

Campaign

Pregnancy from rape controversy

See main article: Rape and pregnancy statement controversies in the 2012 United States elections.

See also: Pregnancy from rape. Mourdock became embroiled in a controversy after stating that pregnancy from rape is "something that God intended". His remarks were made during a debate on October 23, 2012, while explaining his opposition to abortion even in the case of rape. At the debate Mourdock, when asked what his position on abortion was, responded:

I know there are some who disagree and I respect their point of view but I believe that life begins at conception. The only exception I have to have an abortion is in that case of the life of the mother. I just struggled with it myself for a long time but I came to realize: "Life is that gift from God that I think even if life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen".[29]

Media speculated that this could affect the outcome of the Senate race and Presidential race[30] and multiple sources noted the similarities with the rape and pregnancy statement controversies in the 2012 United States elections.[31] [32]

Responding to the criticism, Mourdock issued a statement saying: "God creates life, and that was my point. God does not want rape, and by no means was I suggesting that he does. Rape is a horrible thing, and for anyone to twist my words otherwise is absurd and sick."[33] He was later quoted at a press conference also saying: "I believe God controls the universe. I don't believe biology works in an uncontrolled fashion."[34] He however refused to issue an apology, even while prominent Republicans, including Sen. John McCain, called for him to do so.[35]

Response

A day before the controversy started, a television ad began airing that showed Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee for United States President, supporting Mourdock.[36] The Romney campaign subsequently issued a statement saying "Gov. Romney disagrees with Richard Mourdock's comments, and they do not reflect his views," but did not pull the ad. Senator John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said "Richard and I, along with millions of Americans—including even Joe Donnelly—believe that life is a gift from God. To try and construe his words as anything other than a restatement of that belief is irresponsible and ridiculous".[37] [38]

Many public Republicans called for Mourdock to apologize for the statement. Sen. John McCain called for him to issue an apology and his support "depends on what he does."[35] Senator Scott Brown refused to state that he supported Mourdock in the election.[39] Rep. Mike Pence, a Republican running for governor of Indiana concurrent to Mourdock's senatorial campaign, urged Mourdock to apologize. "I strongly disagree with the statement made by Richard Mourdock during last night's Senate debate," he said in a statement. "I urge him to apologize."[40]

President Obama stated, "Rape is rape. It is a crime," on the Tonight Show. He continued, "These various distinctions about rape don't make too much sense to me."[41] Dan Parker, chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party, immediately criticized Mourdock, saying: "I'm stunned and ashamed that Richard Mourdock believes God intended rape", and claimed that he is an "extremist" who is out of touch with Indiana.[29]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[42] November 1, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[43] November 5, 2012
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[44] November 2, 2012
align=left Real Clear Politics[45] November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=smallSample
size
class=smallMargin of
error
Richard
Mourdock (R)
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Andrew
Horning (L)
OtherUndecided
Howey Politics/DePauw University[46] March 26–28, 2012503± 4.4%35%35%7%23%
Rasmussen Reports[47] May 23–24, 2012600± 4.0%42%42%2%14%
Rasmussen Reports[48] July 31 – August 1, 2012400± 5.0% align=center42%40%3%15%
Market Research Insight[49] August 6–9, 2012600± 4.0% align=center41%39%3%17%
Howey Politics/DePauw University[50] September 19–23, 2012800± 3.5%38% align=center40%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports[51] October 10–11, 2012600± 4.0% align=center47%42%2%8%
Pharos Research[52] October 19–21, 2012754± 3.6%46%46%8%
Howey Politics/DePauw University[53] October 28–30, 2012800± 3.5%36% align=center47%6%11%
Rasmussen ReportsNovember 1, 2012600± 4.0%42% align=center45%6%6%

with Richard Lugar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=smallSample
size
class=smallMargin of
error
Richard
Lugar (R)
Joe
Donnelly (D)
OtherUndecided
Howey Politics/DePauw UniversityMarch 26–28, 2012503± 4.4% align=center50%29%21%

Results

On election night, Donnelly won by about six percent. Donnelly performed well in Marion County, home of Indianapolis. Donnelly also won areas with major college campuses, such as Indiana University in Bloomington and Purdue University in Lafayette. Mourdock performed well as expected in the Indianapolis suburbs, such as Hamilton County. Mourdock conceded defeat to Donnelly at around 11:30 p.m. EST.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Donnelly won five of nine congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.[54]

DistrictDonnellyMourdockRepresentative
1st66.31%30.99%Pete Visclosky
2nd49.94%45.42%Joe Donnelly (112th Congress)
Jackie Walorski (113th Congress)
3rd40.47%53.96%Marlin Stutzman
4th43.56%49.03%Todd Rokita
5th47.36%46.18%Dan Burton (112th Congress)
Susan Brooks (113th Congress)
6th43.68%48.93%Mike Pence (112th Congress)
Luke Messer (113th Congress)
7th66.03%28.00%André Carson
8th47.74%46.84%Larry Bucshon
9th46.81%47.20%Todd Young

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2012 General Election Turnout and Absentee Report . . November 28, 2012 . July 14, 2017 . January 15, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210115184543/https://www.in.gov/sos/elections/2012_General_Election_Turnout_and_Absentee_Report.pdf . dead .
  2. News: Joe Kennedy Isn't Your Usual Upstart Primary Challenger. FiveThirtyEight. September 24, 2019. March 3, 2021.
  3. Web site: Secretary of State: Elections Division: Election Foundation Wide . . November 7, 2006 . November 29, 2010.
  4. News: GOP Dilemma: Who's on First? . September 14, 2010 . November 29, 2010 . . Al . Kamen.
  5. News: Lugar picks up re-election efforts . November 18, 2010 . November 29, 2010 . . Paul . Steinhauser . November 22, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101122131129/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/18/lugar-picks-up-re-election-efforts/ . dead .
  6. News: Sen. Richard Lugar to seek re-election in 2012 . January 18, 2011 . February 6, 2011 . Associated Press . Charles . Wilson.
  7. Web site: Indiana treasurer Richard Mourdock to run for U.S. Senate seat . February 22, 2011 . February 22, 2011 . . Will . Higgins.
  8. Web site: Delph sitting out U.S. Senate race . September 14, 2011 . September 14, 2011 . . Brian . Francisco . March 30, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120330165112/http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20110914/LOCAL0202/110919776 . dead .
  9. Web site: Mourdock Catches a Break in Indiana . January 3, 2012 . January 3, 2012 . . Sean . Sullivan . https://web.archive.org/web/20120112144443/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/mourdock-catche.php . January 12, 2012 . dead .
  10. News: Dick Lugar vs. the GOP . November 20, 2010 . November 29, 2010 . . Matthew . Kaminski.
  11. Web site: Tea Party sets sights on Dick Lugar . November 12, 2010 . November 29, 2010 . . Jim . Shella . https://web.archive.org/web/20120312235547/http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news/politics/tea-party-sets-sights-on-dick-lugar . March 12, 2012 . dead . mdy-all .
  12. Web site: Indiana Debate Commission Announces U.S. Senate Primary Debate Details . April 2, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131106072158/http://indianadebatecommission.com/indiana-debate-commission-announces-u-s-senate-primary-debate-details/ . November 6, 2013 . dead . mdy-all .
  13. Web site: Warren . Michael . 2012-05-04 . Indiana Poll: Mourdock 48, Lugar 38 - Washington Examiner . 2024-06-04 . en-US.
  14. News: Geiger . Kim . Tea party upstart Mourdock defeats longtime Indiana Sen. Lugar . May 9, 2012 . . May 9, 2012.
  15. News: Nichols . Bill . Indiana primary results: Dick Lugar routed in Senate showdown . May 9, 2012 . Politico. May 9, 2012.
  16. Web site: Could Lugar Run As An Independent? . National Journal . March 10, 2011 . Christopher . Peleo-Lazar . May 9, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120513195918/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/03/could-lugar-run.php . May 13, 2012 . dead . mdy-all .
  17. http://www.rollcall.com/news/Richard-Mourdock-Dick-Lugar-poll-Indiana-Senate-207680-1.html Basswood Research (R)
  18. https://web.archive.org/web/20120514234834/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/07/lugar.php American Viewpoint (R)
  19. https://web.archive.org/web/20120405175918/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/04/lugar-holds-sin.php Howey Politics/DePauw University
  20. https://web.archive.org/web/20120510041406/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/05/howeydepauw-pol.php Howey Politics/DePauw University
  21. Web site: Donnelly to Announce Senate Run in Indiana . May 8, 2011 . June 9, 2012 . . Shira . Toeplitz . June 9, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120609224358/http://www.rollcall.com/news/donnelly_to_announce_senate_run_in_indiana-205426-1.html . dead .
  22. Web site: Ellsworth's name will not appear on 2012 ballot . February 21, 2011 . February 21, 2011 . . Eric . Bradner . February 26, 2011 . https://web.archive.org/web/20110226060640/http://www.courierpress.com/news/2011/feb/21/ellsworths-name-will-not-appear-2012-ballot/ . dead .
  23. News: Baron Hill won't seek office in 2012 . December 16, 2010 . December 16, 2010 . Associated Press.
  24. Web site: Libertarian enters Senate contest . September 20, 2011 . September 27, 2011 . . Brian . Francisco . March 30, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120330164950/http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20110920/LOCAL0202/110929958 . dead .
  25. Web site: Completes Fall Debate Schedule . Indiana Debate Commission . September 11, 2012 . October 29, 2013.
  26. Web site: 2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance . fec.gov . November 26, 2012 . December 19, 2012.
  27. Web site: Top Contributors 2012 Race: Indiana Senate . . November 26, 2012 . December 19, 2012.
  28. Web site: Top Industries 2012 Race: Indiana Senate . . November 26, 2012 . December 19, 2010.
  29. Web site: Raju . Manu . Richard Mourdock under fire for rape remarks . October 24, 2012.
  30. Web site: WONG . SCOTT . Senate 5: Is it over for Mourdock? . October 25, 2012.
  31. News: Richard Mourdock: God at work when rape leads to pregnancy . Associated Press . October 24, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20121026232047/http://news.bostonherald.com/news/national/midwest/view/20121023richard_mourdock_god_at_work_when_rape_leads_to_pregnancy/srvc%3Dhome%26position%3Drecent . October 26, 2012 . dead . mdy-all .
  32. News: McAuliff . Michael . Richard Mourdock On Abortion: Pregnancy From Rape Is 'Something God Intended' . . October 24, 2012 . October 23, 2012.
  33. Web site: Richard Mourdock . Mourdock press release on controversy . Mourdock Senate Campaign . February 18, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130115030618/http://richardmourdock.com/news/richard-mourdock-statement . January 15, 2013 . dead . mdy-all .
  34. News: Mourdock Rape Comment Puts GOP on Defense. ABC News. Krieg. Gregory. Good. Chris .
  35. News: Lobianco . Tom . GOP's Mourdock stands by rape, abortion remark . https://web.archive.org/web/20121027095159/http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jNIqLQEjBCxGz-oqrOJS3UsUMoUA?docId=a6dd3f767f2144eabf3da7463ec0e30e . dead . October 27, 2012 . Associated Press . October 25, 2012.
  36. News: Lobianco . Tom . Mourdock: God at work when rape leads to pregnancy . . October 24, 2012.
  37. http://www.indystar.com/viewart/20121023/NEWS0502/210230326/Question-abortion-provokes-controversy-U-S-Senate-debate-between-Richard-Mourdock-Joe-Donnelly-Andrew-Horning Richard Mourdock's response to abortion question provokes controversy in Indiana Senate debate
  38. News: Republican Senate candidate defends rape comment, expresses regret for phrasing . . October 24, 2012 . October 29, 2013.
  39. News: Scott Brown rejects Richard Mourdock's rape comment . Associated Press . October 25, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20121027004154/http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20121024scott_brown_rejects_richard_mourdocks_rape_comment/srvc%3Dhome%26position%3Drecent . October 27, 2012 . dead .
  40. News: Crittenden . Michael R. . Mourdock's Rape Remark Sets Off Firestorm . . October 25, 2012 . October 24, 2012.
  41. News: Memoli . Michael A. . Obama objects to Mourdock's rape comment, skewers Trump . . October 25, 2012 . October 24, 2012.
  42. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . . August 28, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
  43. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . August 28, 2018.
  44. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . August 28, 2018.
  45. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . August 28, 2018.
  46. http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/poll-lugar-leads-mourdock-in-u-s-senate-primary/article_6fc4303d-c724-5ef6-bde6-15380d0bcb62.html Howey Politics/DePauw University
  47. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/indiana/indiana_senate_mourdock_r_42_donnelly_d_42 Rasmussen Reports
  48. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/indiana/indiana_senate_mourdock_r_42_donnelly_d_40 Rasmussen Reports
  49. https://web.archive.org/web/20130609000317/http://www.indianachamber.com/pollingreport/IndianaStatewideVoterSurveyEXECSUMAug2012.pdf Market Research Insight
  50. http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20120927/NEWS02/309270046/Richard-Mourdoch-Joe-Donnelly-dead-heat-Indiana-Senate-race-poll-shows?nclick_check=1 Howey Politics/DePauw University
  51. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/indiana/election_2012_indiana_senate Rasmussen Reports
  52. https://www.scribd.com/doc/111056292/Indiana-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012 Pharos Research
  53. http://www.indystar.com/article/20121102/NEWS0502/121102003/Donnelly-builds-lead-over-Mourdock-Senate-race?nclick_check=1 Howey Politics/DePauw University
  54. Web site: Daily Kos.