2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary explained

Election Name:2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary
Country:South Carolina
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:South Carolina Republican primary, 2012
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary
Next Year:2024
Outgoing Members:NH
Elected Members:NV
Candidate1:Donald Trump
Color1:283681
Home State1:New York
Delegate Count1:50
Popular Vote1:240,882
Percentage1:32.51%
Candidate2:Marco Rubio
Color2:c60e3b
Home State2:Florida
Delegate Count2:0
Popular Vote2:166,565
Percentage2:22.48%
Candidate3:Ted Cruz
Color3:d4aa00
Home State3:Texas
Delegate Count3:0
Popular Vote3:165,417
Percentage3:22.33%
Candidate4:Jeb Bush
Color4:8622ff
Home State4:Florida
Delegate Count4:0
Popular Vote4:58,056
Percentage4:7.84%
Candidate5:John Kasich
Color5:29ab87
Home State5:Ohio
Delegate Count5:0
Popular Vote5:56,410
Percentage5:7.61%
Candidate6:Ben Carson
Color6:98d5e9
Home State6:Virginia
Delegate Count6:0
Popular Vote6:53,551
Percentage6:7.23%
Map Size:250px

The 2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary took place on February 20 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Republican Party's third nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The Democratic Party held its Nevada caucuses on the same day, while their South Carolina primary would only take place a week later on February 27.

The states delegates are allocated in this way: 29 delegates are awarded to the winner of the primary; 3 delegates are awarded to the winner of each of the seven congressional districts.[1]

Following a poor result in the primary, Jeb Bush announced the suspension of his campaign.[2]

Forums and debates

January 9, 2016 – Columbia, South Carolina The Kemp Forum was held in the Columbia Metropolitan Convention Center by the Jack Kemp Foundation. Bush, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, and Rubio attended. The forum was moderated by Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senator Tim Scott.[3] [4]

January 14, 2016 – North Charleston, South Carolina

Candidate Airtime[5] Polls
17:12 34.5%
17:52 19.3%
14:19 11.8%
8:26 9.0%
14:25 3.5%
12:36 4.8%
12:26 2.3%
Candidate AirtimePolls
12:062.8%
N/A2.3%
13:001.8%
12:180.0%
On December 8, 2015, it was announced that Fox Business Network would host an additional debate two days after the State of the Union address.[6] The debate was held in the North Charleston Coliseum in North Charleston, South Carolina. The anchor and managing editor of Business News, Neil Cavuto, and anchor and global markets editor, Maria Bartiromo, reprised their roles as moderators for the prime-time debate, which began at 9 p.m. EST. The earlier debate, which started at 6 p.m. EST, was again moderated by anchors Trish Regan and Sandra Smith.[7] [8]

On December 22, 2015, Fox Business Network announced that in order to qualify for the prime-time debate, candidates had to either: place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by FOX News; place in the top five in Iowa, based on an average of the five most recent Iowa state polls recognized by FOX News; or place in the top five in New Hampshire, based on an average of the five most recent New Hampshire state polls recognized by FOX News. In order to qualify for the first debate, candidates must have registered at least one percent in one of the five most recent national polls.[9]

On January 11, 2016, seven candidates were revealed to have been invited to the prime-time debate: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump. The participants were introduced in order of their poll rankings at the debate.

Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum participated in the undercard debate. Rand Paul was also invited to the undercard debate, but said, "I won't participate in anything that's not first tier because we have a first tier campaign."[10] [11] The candidates were introduced in order of their poll rankings. The first question was to assess the economy. The next questions asked Fiorina about the role of the US in the world, Santorum about the Iran deal, and Huckabee about the solution to Afghanistan's problems.

February 13, 2016 – Greenville, South CarolinaThe ninth debate, and second debate in the month of February, was held in another early primary state of South Carolina, and aired on CBS News. The debate was moderated by John Dickerson in the Peace Center, began at 9 p.m. ET and lasted for 90 minutes.[12]

Endorsements

Withdrawn candidates

Polling

Aggregate polls

Marco Rubio
! class="unsortable"
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Jeb Bush
Margin
RealClearPoliticsuntil February 20, 2016February 20, 201618.8%31.8%18.5%10.7%Trump +13.0
FiveThirtyEightuntil February 20, 2016February 20, 201619.8%30.5%19.5%11.4%Trump +10.7
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary resultsFebruary 20, 2016Donald Trump32.51%Marco Rubio22.48%Ted Cruz22.33%Jeb Bush 7.84%, John Kasich 7.61%, Ben Carson 7.23%
Opinion Savvy/Augusta Chronicle[13]

Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 780

February 18–19, 2016Donald Trump
26.9%
Marco Rubio
24.1%
Ted Cruz18.8%Jeb Bush 10.6%, Ben Carson 8.2%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 3.9%
South CarolinaHouse GOP[14]

Margin of error: ± 2.0% Sample size: 3500

February 18, 2016Donald Trump
33.51%
Ted Cruz18.96%Marco Rubio18.07%Jeb Bush 11.56%, John Kasich 8.49%, Ben Carson 5.22%, Undecided 4.19%
National Research[15] Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 500February 17–18, 2016Donald Trump
32%
Ted Cruz19%Marco Rubio18%Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Refused 2%, Undecided 7%
ARG[16] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 401February 17–18, 2016Donald Trump
34%
Marco Rubio22%John Kasich14%Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 4%, Other 1%, Undecided 3%
Emerson College[17] Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 418February 16–18, 2016Donald Trump
36%
Ted Cruz19%Marco Rubio18%John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6%
Clemson University[18] Margin of error: ± 3.0% Sample size: 650February 14–18, 2016Donald Trump
28%
Ted Cruz19%Marco Rubio15%Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 9%, Ben Carson 6%, Undecided 13%
ARG[19] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400February 16–17, 2016Donald Trump
33%
Marco Rubio20%John Kasich15%Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 1%, Undecided 7%
Harper Polling[20] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 599February 16–17, 2016Donald Trump
29%
Ted Cruz17%Marco Rubio15%Jeb Bush 14%, John Kasich 13%, Ben Carson 8%, Undecided 5%
NBC News/Wall StreetJournal/Marist College[21]

Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 722

February 15–17, 2016Donald Trump
28%
Ted Cruz23%Marco Rubio15%Jeb Bush 13%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 9%, Undecided 5%
Fox News[22] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 759February 15–17, 2016Donald Trump
32%
Ted Cruz19%Marco Rubio15%Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 6%, Other 1%, Undecided 8%
Emerson College[23] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 315February 15–16, 2016Donald Trump
33%
Ted Cruz20%Marco Rubio19%John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 4%
ARG[24] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400February 14–16, 2016Donald Trump
33%
Marco Rubio16%Ted Cruz14%John Kasich 14%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 2%, Undecided 8%
Monmouth University[25] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400February 14–16, 2016Donald Trump
35%
Ted Cruz19%Marco Rubio17%John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Undecided 5%
Bloomberg/Selzer[26] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 502February 13–16, 2016Donald Trump
36%
Ted Cruz17%Marco Rubio15%Jeb Bush 13%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 7%, Undecided 3%
Public Policy Polling[27] Margin of error: ± 3.3% Sample size: 897February 14–15, 2016Donald Trump
35%
Ted Cruz18%Marco Rubio18%John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 7%, Undecided 6%
South CarolinaHouse GOP[28]

Margin of error: ± 2.4% Sample size: 1700

February 15, 2016Donald Trump
33.57%
Ted Cruz15.54%Marco Rubio14.83%Jeb Bush 14.54%, John Kasich 7.98%, Ben Carson 6.55%, Undecided 7.03%
CNN/ORC[29] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 404February 10–15, 2016Donald Trump
38%
Ted Cruz22%Marco Rubio14%Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6%, John Kasich 4%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Someone Else 1%, Undecided 1%, No Opinion 3%
ARG[30] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400February 12–13, 2016Donald Trump
35%
John Kasich15%Marco Rubio14%Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 2%, Other 2%, Undecided 10%
South CarolinaHouse GOP[31]

Margin of error: ± ?%

Sample size: 1200

February 11–12, 2016Donald Trump
34.5%
Ted Cruz15.5%Jeb Bush13%Marco Rubio 12.5%, John Kasich 8.5%, Ben Carson 5%, Undecided 11%
CBS News/YouGov[32] Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 744February 10–12, 2016Donald Trump
42%
Ted Cruz20%Marco Rubio15%John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ben Carson 6%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 1%
Opinion Savvy/Augusta Chronicle[33]

Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 779

February 10–11, 2016Donald Trump
36.3%
Ted Cruz19.6%Marco Rubio14.6%Jeb Bush 10.9%, John Kasich 8.7%, Ben Carson 4.7%, Undecided 5.2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[34] Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 718January 17–23, 2016Donald Trump
36%
Ted Cruz20%Marco Rubio14%Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Rand Paul 1%, John Kasich 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 0%, Undecided 6%
CBS/YouGov[35] Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 804January 18–21, 2016Donald Trump
40%
Ted Cruz21%Marco Rubio13%Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0%
Morris News/Opinion Savvy[36] Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 683January 15, 2016Donald Trump
32%
Ted Cruz18%Jeb Bush13%Marco Rubio 11%, Ben Carson 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 3%
Associated Industries of FloridaMargin of error: ± 3.9%

Sample size: 600

December 16–17, 2015Donald Trump
27%
Ted Cruz
27%
Marco Rubio12%Ben Carson 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, Others 5%, Undecided 11%
CBS News/YouGovMargin of error: ± 5%

Sample size: 1469

December 14–17, 2015Donald Trump
38%
Ted Cruz23%Marco Rubio12%Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 4%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 1%
Opinion Savvy/Augusta ChronicleMargin of error: ± 4.2%

Sample size: 536

December 16, 2015Donald Trump
28.3%
Ted Cruz21.1%Marco Rubio11.6%Jeb Bush 9.6%, Ben Carson 9.5%, Chris Christie 5.5%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Rand Paul 2.6%, Mike Huckabee 2.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.9%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, George Pataki 0.2%, Undecided 1.3%
Winthrop University Margin of error: ± 3.4%

Sample size: 828

November 30 – December 7, 2015Donald Trump
24%
Ted Cruz16%Ben Carson14%Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 9%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%
Fox NewsMargin of error: ± 4.5%

Sample size: 437

December 5–8, 2015Donald Trump
35%
Ben Carson15%Marco Rubio/Ted Cruz14%Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 2%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, None of the Above 1%, Don't Know 5%
CBS News/YouGovMargin of error: ± 5.1%

Sample size: ?

November 15–19, 2015Donald Trump
35%
Ben Carson19%Marco Rubio16%Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 5%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%
Public Policy PollingMargin of error: ± 3.5%

Sample size: 787

November 7–8, 2015Donald Trump
25%
Ben Carson21%Ted Cruz15%Marco Rubio 13%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, John Kasich 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 3%
CBS News/YouGovMargin of error: ± 3.4%

Sample size: 843

October 15–23, 2015Donald Trump
40%
Ben Carson23%Ted Cruz8%Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, No Preference 5%
Clemson-Palmetto Margin of error: ± 4%

Sample size: 600

October 13–23, 2015Donald Trump
23%
Ben Carson
19%
Ted Cruz8%Carly Fiorina 6%, Jeb Bush 7%, Marco Rubio 5%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Rand Paul 1%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, undecided/DK 15%
CNN/ORCMargin of error: ± 4.5%

Sample size: 521

October 3–10, 2015Donald Trump
36%
Ben Carson18%Marco Rubio9%Carly Fiorina 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Lindsey Graham 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore *%, George Pataki *% Bobby Jindal *%, None 1%, No opinion 4%
Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 3.6%

Sample size: 762

October 1, 2015Donald Trump
29.1%
Ben Carson16.4%Carly Fiorina11.1%Ted Cruz 8.1%, Marco Rubio 8%, Jeb Bush 5.9%, John Kasich 3.5%, Mike Huckabee 3.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.5%, Chris Christie 1.4%, Rand Paul 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, George Pataki 0.3% Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Unsure 9.9%
CBS News/YouGovMargin of error: ± 4.5%

Sample size: 1002

September 3–10, 2015Donald Trump
36%
Ben Carson21%Ted Cruz6%Lindsey Graham 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Perry 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 5%
Public Policy PollingMargin of error: ± 3.6%

Sample size: 764

September 3–6, 2015Donald Trump
37%
Ben Carson21%Ted Cruz6%Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, John Kasich 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%
Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.6%

Sample size: 453

August 20–23, 2015Donald Trump
30%
Ben Carson15%Jeb Bush9%Carly Fiorina 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Lindsey Graham 4%, Scott Walker 4%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 0%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 11%
Opinion Savvy/Insider AdvantageMargin of error: ± 4.3%

Sample size: 509

August 3, 2015Donald Trump
31.3%
Jeb Bush13.9%Ben Carson9.9%Mike Huckabee 8.5%, Lindsey Graham 6.5%, Scott Walker 5.8%, Ted Cruz 4.3%, Chris Christie 4.1%, John Kasich 3.1%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 1.8%, Rand Paul 1.7%, Bobby Jindal 0.7%, Rick Perry 0.6%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, George Pataki 0%, Someone else 3.1%, Undecided 2.5%
Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 4.0%

Sample size: 609

July 29–30, 2015Donald Trump
34%
Ben Carson10.9%Jeb Bush10.5%Scott Walker 10.3%, Marco Rubio 6%, Mike Huckabee 5.5%, Lindsey Graham 4.9%, Ted Cruz 3.4%, John Kasich 3.3%, Chris Christie 2.5%, Rick Perry 2.5%, Carly Fiorina 2.4%, Rick Santorum 1.3%, Rand Paul 1%, Bobby Jindal 0.9%, George Pataki 0.7%
Morning ConsultMargin of error: ± 5.0%

Sample size: 389

May 31 – June 8, 2015Lindsey Graham
14%
Ben Carson
12%
Jeb Bush
11%
Scott Walker 10%, Marco Rubio 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Donald Trump 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Don't know/No Opinion/Refused 16%, Someone else 2%
Winthrop University Margin of error: ± 3.2%

Sample size: 956

April 4–12, 2015Scott Walker
13.6%
Jeb Bush
12.7%
Ted Cruz8.1%Lindsey Graham 7.6%, Rand Paul 6.2%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4.9%, Mike Huckabee 4.9%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 1.9%, Donald Trump 1.9%, Bobby Jindal 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.3%, John Bolton 0.2%, Other 1.4%, Undecided 25.1%
Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 3%

Sample size: 1,371

March 26–27, 2015Scott Walker
17%
Jeb Bush
16%
Ted Cruz13%Lindsey Graham 9%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Undecided 18%
Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 3%

Sample size: 792

February 24–25, 2015Jeb Bush
19%
Scott Walker
17%
Lindsey Graham12%Mike Huckabee 10%, Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 16%
Public Policy PollingMargin of error: ± 4.3%

Sample size: 525

February 12–15, 2015Jeb Bush
19%
Scott Walker
18%
Ben Carson13%Lindsey Graham 13%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Chris Christie 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ted Cruz 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Other/Undecided 6%
NBC News/MaristMargin of error: ± 4.6%

Sample size: 450

February 3–10, 2015Lindsey Graham
17%
Jeb Bush
15%
Scott Walker12%Ben Carson 10%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Perry 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Ted Cruz 1%, Undecided 11%
Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 3%

Sample size: 831

January 21–22, 2015Mitt Romney
20%
Jeb Bush16%Scott Walker9%Ted Cruz 8%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Undecided 12%
Jeb Bush
18%
Mike Huckabee11%Scott Walker11%Ted Cruz 9%, Marco Rubio 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Rick Perry 5%, Rick Santorum 4%, Undecided 17%
Clemson University Margin of error: ± 6%

Sample size: 400

May 22–29, 2014Jeb Bush
22%
Chris Christie10%Ted Cruz9%Rand Paul 9%, Marco Rubio 6%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Undecided/Don't know 48%
Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 4%

Sample size: 735

March 6–7, 2014Jeb Bush
22%
Mike Huckabee
19%
Chris Christie12%Ted Cruz 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Marco Rubio 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 19%
Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 4%

Sample size: 601

November 30 – December 2, 2013Chris Christie
16.6%
Jeb Bush
16%
Mike Huckabee
15.8%
Ted Cruz 11.1%, Rand Paul 9.7%, Marco Rubio 7.2%, Rick Santorum 2.8%, Scott Walker 2.3%, Undecided 18.5%
Harper PollingMargin of error: ± 5.03%

Sample size: 379

October 27–28, 2013Chris Christie
19%
Ted Cruz
17%
Rand Paul13%Marco Rubio 12%, Paul Ryan 12%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Not sure 21%

Results

Primary date: February 20, 2016
District conventions: April 2016
State convention: May 7, 2016
National delegates: 50

Exit Polls

2016 South Carolina Republican Primary by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[37]
Demographic subgroupCruzTrumpRubioKasichBush% oftotal vote
Total vote22.333.522.57.67.893%
Gender
Men2236227751%
Women2229239949%
Race
White2233228896%
Education and Race
White College Graduate19252711952%
White Non-college2442174645%
Age
17–44 years old2626258427%
45+ years old2135227973%
Income
$30,000 - $49,9992733207817%
$50,000 - $99,9992634197637%
$100,000 - $199,99917282812726%
Issue regarded as most important
Immigration2551113310%
Economy15362413729%
Terrorism2531235932%
Government spending2525258926%
Area type
Urban182331121023%
Suburban2636185748%
Rural2034228829%
Religion
Evangelical2634215767%
Non-Evangelical17382216933%
Veteran household
Yes2135237817%
No2431219883%

Analysis

Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary by ten points. He carried the crucial Evangelical vote with 33% to Cruz at 27% and Rubio at 22%.[38] [39] Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values.[40]

Marco Rubio, who enjoyed the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley,[41] came in second in the primary. Rubio won the two urban counties of Richland and Charleston, both of which have a higher percentage of college-educated voters.

Notes and References

  1. News: Is The South Carolina Primary Winner Take All? There's A Lot At Stake In The Palmetto State. Carrejo. Cate. 2017-02-22.
  2. Web site: Stokols . Eli . Jeb Bush drops out of White House race . 20 February 2016 . 2016-06-21 . POLITICO.
  3. Web site: GOP forum will focus on issues, not ‘drama’. Post and Courier. 2016-01-14.
  4. Web site: In Kemp Forum on Poverty, a Broader GOP Outreach to Voters. WSJ Blogs - Washington Wire. 2016-01-12. 2016-01-14.
  5. Web site: On The Clock: Who's Talking The Most In Tonight's Debate?. NPR.org. January 14, 2016. Barbara. Sprunt.
  6. Web site: Fox Business Network To Air Additional GOP Debate Days After SOTU. Talking Points Memo. December 8, 2015. December 8, 2015.
  7. Web site: FOX Business Network Announces Moderators for GOP Primary Debates on Jan. 14. Fox Business. January 5, 2015. January 5, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20160106023645/http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2016/01/05/fox-business-network-announces-moderators-for-gop-primary-debates-on-jan-14/. January 6, 2016. dead. mdy-all.
  8. Web site: TV Listings & Channel Guide AT&T U-verse. uverse.com. 2016-01-11.
  9. Web site: FOX Business Network Announces Entry Criteria for GOP Primary Debates on Jan. 14. Fox Business. December 22, 2015. December 22, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20151223140443/http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2015/12/22/fox-business-network-announces-entry-criteria-for-gop-primary-debates-on-jan-14/. December 23, 2015. dead. mdy-all.
  10. Web site: Jackson. David. Fox Business invites 7 Republicans to debate; Paul and Fiorina relegated. USA Today. January 11, 2016. January 11, 2016.
  11. Web site: Rafferty. Andrew. Rand Paul Says He'll Boycott Debate After Missing Main Stage. NBC News. January 11, 2016. January 11, 2016.
  12. Web site: CBS News announces details for 2016 debates. www.cbsnews.com. 2015-12-16.
  13. Web site: South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Poll . February 20, 2016 . Opinion Savvy.
  14. Web site: South Carolina House Republican Caucus . February 20, 2016 . South Carolina House GOP.
  15. Web site: Results from our South Carolina GOP Primary Poll! . February 20, 2016 . National Research Inc . February 22, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160222041349/http://www.nationalresearchinc.com/blog/2016/2/19/results-from-our-south-carolina-gop-primary-poll-conducted-february-17-18-2016 . dead .
  16. Web site: South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary . February 19, 2016 . ARG . February 22, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160222051516/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23805 . dead .
  17. Web site: EMERSON POLL: TRUMP EXTENDS HIS LEAD IN SOUTH CAROLINA; RUBIO PASSES CRUZ IN FIGHT FOR SECOND . February 19, 2016 . Emerson College Polling Society.
  18. Web site: 2016 Clemson University Palmetto Poll: The Republican Primary . February 20, 2016 . Clemson University Palmetto Poll . February 21, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160221224927/http://newsstand.clemson.edu/mediarelations/2016-clemson-university-palmetto-poll-the-republican-primary/ . dead .
  19. Web site: South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary . February 19, 2016 . ARG . February 21, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160221143008/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23797 . dead .
  20. Web site: South Carolina Republican Primary Presidential Poll . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20160221001409/http://harperpolling.com/polls/south-carolina-republican-presidential-primary-poll#ballot . February 21, 2016 . February 19, 2016 . Harper Polling.
  21. Web site: Donald Trump's Lead Slashed in South Carolina: Poll . February 19, 2016 . NBC/Marist College.
  22. Web site: Fox News Poll: South Carolina Republican primary . February 19, 2016 . Fox News.
  23. Web site: Trump poised to win South Carolina. Cruz and Rubio battle for second place. Evangelicals and Independents favor Trump . February 18, 2016 . Emerson College Polling Society.
  24. Web site: South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary . February 17, 2016 . ARG . February 20, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160220152647/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23762 . dead .
  25. Web site: SOUTH CAROLINA: TRUMP FAR AHEAD . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20160225084318/http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/55811f0b-8491-4ef3-972e-967977584c58.pdf . February 25, 2016 . February 18, 2016 . Monmouth University.
  26. Web site: Bloomberg Politics South Carolina Poll . February 18, 2016 . Selzer and Company.
  27. Web site: FIRST ON BUZZ:After debate, Trump still tops SC GOP presidential race . February 15, 2016 . PPP.
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