2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey explained

See main article: article and 2016 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Country:New Jersey
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Previous Year:2012
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Next Election:2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Next Year:2020
Turnout:68%
Image1:Hillary_Clinton_by_Gage_Skidmore_2.jpg
Nominee1:Hillary Clinton
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:New York
Running Mate1:Tim Kaine
Electoral Vote1:14
Popular Vote1:2,148,278
Percentage1:55.45%
President
Before Election:Barack Obama
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Donald Trump
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate2:Mike Pence
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:New York
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:1,601,933
Percentage2:41.35%

The 2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Clinton won the state with 55.5% of the vote over Trump's 41.35%, or a 14-point margin. Despite her victory in the state, Clinton's vote share was slightly poorer than the vote shares President Barack Obama got from the state in 2008 and 2012. This was the first time since 1976 that New Jersey did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Pennsylvania, and the first time since 1932 that New Jersey voted Democratic while Pennsylvania voted Republican. Donald Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Somerset County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888.

Primary elections

New Jersey's presidential primaries were on June 7, 2016, with the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian parties participating.[2] Registered members of each party could only vote in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated could choose any 1 primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

See main article: 2016 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary. Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3]

Republican primary

3 candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times[4] November 6, 2016
CNN[5] November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[6] November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[7] November 8, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[8] November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[10] November 8, 2016
Fox News[11] November 7, 2016

Candidate ballot access

[12]

Results by county

CountyHillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Atlantic60,92451.61%52,69044.64%4,4273.75%8,2346.97%118,041
Bergen231,21154.76%175,52941.57%15,4733.67%55,68213.19%422,213
Burlington121,72555.01%89,27240.34%10,2864.65%32,45314.67%221,283
Camden146,71764.06%72,63131.71%9,6994.23%74,08632.35%229,047
Cape May18,75038.07%28,44657.75%2,0614.18%-9,696-19.68%49,257
Cumberland27,77151.11%24,45345.01%2,1073.88%3,3186.10%54,331
Essex240,83776.97%63,17620.19%8,8712.84%177,66156.78%312,884
Gloucester66,87047.34%67,54447.82%6,8404.84%-674-0.48%141,254
Hudson163,91774.32%49,04322.24%7,5823.44%114,87452.08%220,542
Hunterdon28,89840.33%38,71254.02%4,0505.65%-9,814-13.69%71,660
Mercer104,77566.29%46,19329.23%7,0904.48%58,58237.06%158,058
Middlesex193,04458.76%122,95337.42%12,5603.82%70,09121.34%328,557
Monmouth137,18143.17%166,72352.47%13,8464.36%-29,542-9.30%317,750
Morris115,24945.46%126,07149.72%12,2174.82%-10,822-4.26%253,537
Ocean87,15031.49%179,07964.71%10,4963.80%-91,929-33.22%276,725
Passaic116,75959.50%72,90237.15%6,5673.35%43,85722.35%196,228
Salem11,90439.88%16,38154.87%1,5685.25%-4,477-14.99%29,853
Somerset85,68954.55%65,50541.70%5,8983.75%20,18412.85%157,092
Sussex24,21232.21%46,65862.08%4,2885.71%-22,446-29.87%75,158
Union147,41465.94%68,11430.47%8,0423.59%79,30035.47%223,570
Warren17,28134.78%29,85860.10%2,5445.12%-12,577-25.32%49,683
Totals2,148,27854.99%1,601,93341.00%156,5124.01%546,34513.99%3,906,723

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[13]

By congressional district

Clinton won 7 of 12 congressional districts. Trump and Clinton each won a district held by the other party.[14]

DistrictClintonTrumpRepresentative
60.6%36.1%Donald Norcross
46.0%50.6%Frank LoBiondo
45.2%51.4%
41.0%55.8%Chris Smith
47.7%48.8%Scott Garrett
Josh Gottheimer
56.2%40.6%Frank Pallone Jr.
48.6%47.5%
75.7%21.5%Albio Sires
64.3%33.1%Bill Pascrell
85.2%12.8%Donald Payne Jr.
47.9%48.8%Rodney Frelinghuysen
65.0%31.8%Bonnie Watson Coleman

Analysis

Hillary Clinton's 55.5% of the vote was 2.9% less than Barack Obama's win in the state in 2012. Overall, the trend from 2012 to 2016 was that suburban areas of central and northern New Jersey voted more Democratic, while the shore and southern New Jersey voted more Republican. Clinton's most notable improvements over Obama in 2012 were seen in Union, Somerset, and Morris Counties. In Morris, Clinton came within 5% of winning the county, which had not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Clinton's stronger performance in the suburban towns of north-central New Jersey, such as Summit, Westfield, and Bridgewater, helped her narrowly win the 7th congressional district.

On the other hand, southern New Jersey, especially Cumberland County and Salem County, voted significantly more Republican than they had in 2012. For example, even though Cumberland County voted Democratic in both 2012 and 2016, Clinton won it by just 6%, whereas Obama won it by nearly 24% in 2012. Additionally, the four shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May all voted more Republican than they had in 2012. While Mitt Romney had won these four counties collectively by around 6% in 2012, Trump won them by 17% in 2016.

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. December 14, 2020.
  2. Green papers for 2016 primaries (D) (R). Retrieved 2016-04-05.
  3. Web site: Official List / Candidates for President / For PRIMARY ELECTION 06/07/2016 Election . NJ.gov . April 14, 2016 . 2017-11-04 . 2017-04-30 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170430031359/http://nj.gov/state/elections/2016-results/2016-official-primary-candidates-president.pdf . dead .
  4. News: Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours. . . 2016-11-06 . 2016-11-13.
  5. News: Chalian . David . David Chalian. Road to 270: CNN's new election map . March 3, 2019 . . November 4, 2016.
  6. Web site: 2016 Electoral Scorecard . November 7, 2016 . . en . March 3, 2019 . March 1, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190301010353/https://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard . dead .
  7. Web site: 2016 Electoral Map Prediction . November 8, 2016 . . March 3, 2019.
  8. Web site: Presidential Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . August 16, 2021.
  9. Web site: 2016 President . Sabato . Larry J. . Larry Sabato . November 7, 2016 . . March 3, 2019.
  10. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House. RealClearPolitics. 2016-11-13.
  11. Web site: Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge . . 2016-11-07 . 2016-11-13.
  12. Web site: Official List Candidates for President For GENERAL ELECTION 11/08/2016 Election . August 12, 2016 . New Jersey Secretary of State - Division of Elections . November 9, 2016.
  13. News: Bump. Philip. The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election. en-US. The Washington Post. 2020-09-01. 0190-8286.
  14. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project. www.swingstateproject.com. 7 April 2018.