2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky explained

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky should not be confused with 2020 Kentucky Senate election.

Election Name:2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Country:Kentucky
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Next Year:2026
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Image1:Mitch McConnell portrait 2016.jpg
Nominee1:Mitch McConnell
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,233,315
Percentage1:57.76%
Nominee2:Amy McGrath
Party2:Democratic Party (US)
Popular Vote2:816,257
Percentage2:38.23%
Map Size:300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Mitch McConnell
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Mitch McConnell
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:59.7%

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville.[1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early, a far greater number than usual.[2]

Despite much speculation about this race being potentially competitive and large amounts of money being poured in to try to defeat McConnell, he wound up winning a seventh term with his largest margin of victory since 2002, defeating McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points. He also won Elliott and Wolfe Counties for the first time, solidifying rural Kentucky's hard swing towards the GOP. This was the first election in which McConnell attained more than 1 million votes.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Campaign

There were debates on March 5, 2020[31] [32] and June 1, 2020.[33] [34]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Charles
Booker
Amy
McGrath
OtherUndecided
Data for ProgressJune 10–22, 2020556 (LV)43%46%10%
Garin-Hart-YangJune 16–18, 202032%42%
Civiqs/Data for ProgressJune 13–15, 2020421 (LV)± 5.5%44%36%9%11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsJune 8–12, 2020313 (RV)± 7.0%39%49%6%3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsMay 202013%62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsApril 202011%62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsJanuary 20207%65%

Results

Other candidates

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate.[35] [36] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[37]

Nominee

Reform Party

Withdrawn

Independents

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Despite record breaking fundraising from McGrath and speculation that the race could be competitive, McConnell was handily re-elected. Throughout the general election, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist" and made use of a comment from 2018 where McGrath compared her reaction to Trump being elected in 2016 to how she felt during the September 11 attacks.

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[42] October 29, 2020
align=left Inside Elections[43] October 28, 2020
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[45] October 30, 2020
Politico[46] November 2, 2020
RCP[47] October 23, 2020
DDHQ[48] November 3, 2020
538[49] November 2, 2020
Economist[50] November 2, 2020

Polling

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Amy
McGrath (D)
Brad
Barron (L)
Other /
Undecided
Swayable October 23 – November 1, 2020365 (LV)± 7.9%49%46%5%
Morning ConsultOctober 22–31, 2020911 (LV)± 3%51%40%
Bluegrass Community & Technical College October 12–28, 2020250 (RV)50%40%10%
CygnalOctober 19–20, 2020640 (LV)± 3.9%50%40%5%5%
Mason-DixonOctober 12–15, 2020625 (LV)± 4%51%42%4%3%
Morning ConsultSeptember 11–20, 2020746 (LV)± (2% – 7%)52%37%
Data for Progress (D)September 14–19, 2020807 (LV)± 3.5%46%39%3%12%
48%41%11%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 10–14, 20201,164 (LV)± 2.9%53%41%5%
Quinnipiac UniversityJuly 30 – August 3, 2020909 (RV)± 3.3%49%44%7%
Bluegrass Data (D) July 25–29, 20203,020 (RV)± 2.0%49%46%4%
Morning ConsultJuly 24 – August 2, 2020793 (LV)± 3.0%53%36%12%
Spry Strategies (R)July 11–16, 2020600 (LV)± 3.7%55%33%12%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) July 7–12, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%45%41%7%7%
Civiqs/Data for ProgressJune 13–15, 2020898 (RV)± 3.8%53%33%4%11%
RMG ResearchMay 21–24, 2020500 (RV)± 4.5%40%41%19%
Bluegrass Data (D) April 7–12, 20204,000 (RV)40%38%7%
Change Research (D)January 17–21, 20201,281 (LV)± 2.8%41%41%18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)January 8–13, 2020802 (LV)± 3.5%43%40%17%
Fabrizio WardJuly 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%47%46%6%
Change Research (D)June 15–16, 20191,629 (LV)47%45%8%
with Charles Booker
with Jim Gray
with Generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy PollingMay 14–15, 20201,104 (V)47%44%9%
Public Policy Polling (D) Feb 11–12, 2019748 (RV)± 3.6%45%42%12%
Public Policy Polling (D) Aug 15–16, 2017645 (V)37%44%19%
on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
YesNoOther /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARPJuly 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%31%62%8%
Public Policy Polling (D) Feb 11–12, 2019748 (RV)± 3.6%32%61%8%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
CygnalOctober 19–20, 2020640 (LV)± 3.9%55%39%6%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 10–14, 20201,164 (LV)± 2.9%54%38%8%
Fabrizio Ward/AARPJuly 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%48%42%13%

Results

McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3.[51] When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea, since, "at the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close."[52] [53]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

McConnell won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[54]

DistrictMcConnellMcGrathRepresentative
67%28%James Comer
62%33%Brett Guthrie
37%61%John Yarmuth
60%36%Thomas Massie
74%22%Hal Rogers
51%46%Andy Barr

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  • Voter samples
  • External links

    campaign websites

    Notes and References

    1. Web site: Charles Booker is determined to fight voter suppression in Kentucky. John. Nichols. The Nation. 2020-06-22. 2020-06-28.
    2. Web site: Kentucky sees fewer absentee ballot requests for general election than in the primary. Ben. Tobin. The Courier-Journal.
    3. News: Mitch McConnell to Kentucky Gov. Bevin: Stay home and run for re-election. Miami Herald. Lesley. Clark. Daniel. Desrochers. June 13, 2018.
    4. News: McConnell announces re-elect campaign at Fancy Farm picnic. AP News. Adam. Beam. August 4, 2018.
    5. News: Brammer . Jack . Former Kentucky lawmaker challenging Mitch McConnell in GOP primary for U.S. Senate . May 31, 2019 . Lexington Herald Leader . May 29, 2019.
    6. Web site: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell just got two more primary opponents. wdrb.com. December 18, 2019 .
    7. Web site: June 2, 2020 . June 2, 2020 . Kentucky Secretary of State . Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State . May 23, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200523214628/https://web.sos.ky.gov/electionmall/default.aspx?id=3 . dead .
    8. News: Amy McGrath launches campaign for U.S. Senate, paints a target on Mitch McConnell . Lexington Herald Leader . Daniel. Desrochers. July 9, 2019 . November 8, 2019.
    9. Web site: Amy McGrath just won her unexpectedly close Kentucky Senate primary. Vox. Ella. Nilsen. June 30, 2020.
    10. News: Desrochers . Daniel . Kentucky lawmaker Charles Booker launches bid to unseat Mitch McConnell in 2020 . January 5, 2020 . Lexington Herald Leader . January 5, 2020.
    11. Web site: Democrat Charles Booker is running for US Senate in 2020. Phillip M.. Bailey. The Courier-Journal.
    12. Web site: Bailey . Phillip . Kentucky farmer, retired Marine wants to challenge Mitch McConnell in 2020 US Senate race . The Courier-Journal . July 18, 2019.
    13. Web site: Eric Rothmuller for U.S. Senate 2020 – Kentucky – Ditch Mitch & Take Back Your Senate. January 21, 2020. January 27, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200127015644/https://ericrothmuller.com/. dead.
    14. Web site: Bennie J Smith for Senate (D-KY) – Home. benniejsmith.com. October 1, 2020. September 24, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200924151015/https://www.benniejsmith.com/. dead.
    15. Web site: Cooney . Lynnette . See who filed to run on the 2020 Kentucky ballot . www.wymt.com . WYMT Mountain News . January 10, 2020.
    16. Web site: About the Candidate: Jimmy Ausbrooks – Jimmy Ausbrooks For Kentucky 2020 US Senate. November 19, 2019. April 20, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210420232656/https://jimmyausbrooks.com/about/. dead.
    17. Jimmy Ausbrooks For Kentucky. jimmy4congress. 1266373010522431488. May 29, 2020. I welcome all my supporter to join me in supporting @MikeForKY for the Democratic nomination and together we will #BeTheChange Kentucky deserves!. May 29, 2020.
    18. Web site: Home. Steve Cox for US Senate. November 19, 2019. December 5, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20191205004452/https://coxforus.com/. dead.
    19. Steve Cox-KY.US.Sen.Candidate. StevenCoxUSA. 1215990346468950016. January 11, 2020. I'm out of this race. I cant thank those that supported me enough. I love you all & this great state. I'll keep fighting. Mitch is done. Please everyone support Charles Booker. He is the only progressive hope left in this race. https://youtu.be/-6zgaujqwo8 via @YouTube. January 11, 2020.
    20. Web site: 17 changes to the candidate list. 2020 Delegate Selection Update: District of Columbia Republican. The Green Papers . May 15, 2020 . November 27, 2019 .
    21. News: McGrath running for Senate, hopes to challenge Sen. McConnell in 2020. May 15, 2020 . July 9, 2019 . WKYT .
    22. Web site: FEC . May 15, 2020 . FILING FEC-1347619 .
    23. Web site: Rocky Adkins passes on U.S. Senate bid and takes job in Andy Beshear's administration. Desrochers. Daniel. December 2, 2019. Kentucky.com. January 13, 2020.
    24. News: Green. J.P.. Can McConnell Be Defeated in 2020?. May 13, 2019. The Democratic Strategist. March 20, 2019. May 14, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190514043907/https://thedemocraticstrategist.org/2019/03/can-mcconnell-be-defeated-in-2020/. dead.
    25. Web site: Beshear set for 'next chapter' as Bevin concedes in Kentucky. November 14, 2019. AP News.
    26. News: Matt Bevin concedes defeat in Kentucky governor's race. The Washington Post.
    27. News: Bailey. Phillip M.. Amy McGrath vs Mitch McConnell in 2020? Group launches campaign to 'draft' her. The Courier-Journal. March 12, 2019. March 14, 2019.
    28. Web site: Singiser . Steve . Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours? . Daily Kos . February 19, 2019.
    29. Web site: FEC . MATT JONES FOR KENTUCKY EXPLORATORY COMMITTEE. May 17, 2020 .
    30. News: Matt Jones, potential McConnell opponent, says he will not run for Senate. Strauss. Ben. The Washington Post. November 16, 2019.
    31. News: Ramsey . Mary . 2020-03-05 . Kentucky's Democratic Senate candidates face off in Indivisible candidate forum . en-US . Courier Journal . 2020-07-05.
    32. News: 2020-03-05 . WATCH LIVE: Ky. Democratic Senate Candidates Debate In Newport . en-US . WFPL . 2020-06-19.
    33. News: Gershon . Aaron, and Al Cross . 2020-06-02 . McGrath takes on Booker and Broihier in only scheduled Democratic U.S. Senate debate . Winchester Sun . 2020-06-19.
    34. News: 2020 Primary Election Candidates, Part Two . en-US . Kentucky Educational Television – KET/PBS . 2020-07-05.
    35. Web site: LPKY Convention Participation Guidelines . Libertarian Party of Kentucky.
    36. Web site: 2020 LP Kentucky Annual Convention. March 4, 2020. March 4, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200304014001/https://lpky.org/event/2020-lp-kentucky-annual-convention-2020-03-07/. dead.
    37. Web site: The Libertarian Party of Kentucky Constitution. Libertarian Party of Kentucky.
    38. Web site: Brad Barron 2020 US Senate. Brad Barron 2020 US Senate. March 4, 2020. January 27, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200127015653/https://www.bradbarron2020.com/. dead.
    39. Web site: May 15, 2020 . Derek Petteys Reform Party for Senate . May 27, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200527033825/https://kysenator2020.com/ . dead .
    40. Web site: October 12, 2020 . September 21, 2020 . Kentucky Secretary of State . Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State . October 10, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201010183700/https://web.sos.ky.gov/electionmall/default.aspx?id=3 . dead .
    41. News: Kentucky Senate 2020 Race. Open Secrets . May 15, 2020 .
    42. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020 . . March 11, 2021.
    43. Web site: 2020 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . March 11, 2021.
    44. Web site: 2020 Senate race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 12, 2021.
    45. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings . Daily Kos Elections. March 13, 2021.
    46. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
    47. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2020. October 23, 2020 . RCP.
    48. Web site: September 2, 2020 . 2020 Senate Elections Model. September 2, 2020 . Decision Desk HQ.
    49. Web site: Silver . Nate . Forecasting the race for the Senate . . September 18, 2020 . September 18, 2020.
    50. Web site: November 2, 2020 . Forecasting the US elections . March 13, 2021 . The Economist.
    51. News: U.S. Senate Election Results. en-US. The New York Times. November 3, 2020 . 2020-11-04. 0362-4331.
    52. News: McConnell treads cautiously in Trump's post-election fight. Alexander. Bolton. The Hill. November 12, 2020. December 2, 2020.
    53. News: 2020-11-03. Kentucky U.S. Senate Election Results. en-US. The New York Times. 2021-10-03. 0362-4331.
    54. Web site: DRA 2020. Daves Redistricting. August 18, 2024.