2020 United States presidential election in Nevada explained

Election Name:2020 United States presidential election in Nevada
Country:Nevada
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
College Voted:yes
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in Nevada
Previous Year:2016
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in Nevada
Next Year:2024
Turnout:78.22%
Image1:Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Joe Biden
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Delaware
Running Mate1:Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote1:6
Popular Vote1:703,486
Percentage1:
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Florida
Running Mate2:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:669,890
President
Before Election:Donald Trump
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Biden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States presidential election in Nevada was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Nevada voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Nevada has six votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Throughout the campaign, polls of the state generally showed a Biden lead, albeit with a sometimes slender margin. Before polling day, most news organizations considered that Nevada was leaning towards Biden. Biden carried Nevada by 2.39%, a slightly smaller margin than Hillary Clinton's 2.42% in 2016, making it one of just six states (along with Washington DC) in which Trump improved on his 2016 margin. Biden's somewhat narrow victory in Nevada also made it his weakest victory in a state that Hillary Clinton had won in 2016, as he carried all other such states by more than 7%.

Most counties in the state of Nevada are rural, and voted heavily for Trump. However, Biden won the two most populous counties, Clark and Washoe, which make up almost 89% of Nevada's population.[3] The state's three largest cities are located in these counties: Las Vegas and Henderson in the former, and Reno in the latter. His strength in these areas was likely due to high presence of minority and union voters: Biden's strength came from heavy turnout among culinary unions in populous Clark County, anchored by Las Vegas. Biden had the backing of Culinary Union Local 226, based on right-to-work standards.[4] Additionally, Biden was able to win about 43% and 34% of votes in the tourism-heavy Lake Tahoe areas of Carson City and Douglas County respectively, sealing his victory in the state. Nevada weighed in for this election as 2% more Republican than the nation-at-large.

Caucuses

Canceled Republican caucuses

On September 7, 2019, the Nevada Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[5] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[6] [7] In August 2019, the Associated Press quoted the state party spokesman, Keith Schipper, who stated it "isn't about any kind of conspiracy theory about protecting the president... He's going to be the nominee... This is about protecting resources to make sure that the president wins in Nevada and that Republicans up and down the ballot win in 2020."[8]

In lieu of conducting their caucuses, the state party's governing central committee instead formally held an Alternative Presidential Preference Poll on February 22, 2020,[9] voting by acclamation to officially bind all 25 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[10] [11]

Democratic caucuses

General election

Final predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report[12]
Inside Elections[13]
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]
Politico[15]
RCP[16]
Niskanen[17]
CNN[18]
The Economist[19]
CBS News[20]
270towin[21]
ABC News[22]
NPR[23]
NBC News[24]
538[25]

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"
Donald
Trump

Other/
Undecided
Margin
270 to Win[26] October 16–31, 2020November 1, 202049.4%44.4%6.2%Biden +5.0
Real Clear Politics[27] October 23 – November 2, 2020November 1, 202048.7%46.3%5.0%Biden +2.4
FiveThirtyEight[28] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202049.7%44.4%5.9%Biden +5.3
Average49.3%45.0%5.7%Biden +4.3

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump

Joe
Biden
Jo
Jorgensen

OtherUndecided
Trafalgar Group[29] Oct 31 – Nov 2, 20201,024 (LV)± 2.98%49%48%1%1%1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[30] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20202,366 (LV)± 3%49%49%-
Data for Progress[31] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,442 (LV)± 2.6%44%51%3%2%
Emerson College[32] Oct 29–31, 2020720 (LV)± 3.6%47%49%-4%
Trafalgar Group[33] Oct 28–29, 20201,024 (LV)± 2.98%47%49%2%1%1%
Gravis Marketing[34] Oct 27–28, 2020688 (LV)± 3.7%44%50%6%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20203,333 (LV)49%50%-
Siena College/NYT Upshot[35] Oct 23–26, 2020809 (LV)± 3.8%43%49%3%2%4%
BUSR/University of Nevada[36] Oct 16–21,
Oct 23, 2020
809 (LV)± 4%41%50%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[37] Oct 17–20, 2020712 (LV)± 5.3%43%52%-3%1%
WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal/AARP[38] Oct 7–11, 2020512 (LV)± 4.4%42%44%3%5%6%
YouGov/CBS[39] Oct 6–9, 20201,036 (LV)± 4.1%46%52%-2%0%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[40] Oct 2–6, 2020660 (LV)± 4.3%42%48%3%1%6%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20201,239 (LV)47%51%--2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC[41] Sep 23–25, 2020750 (LV)48%49%-2%1%
Qualtrics/University of Nevada/BUSR[42] Sep 10–25, 2020641 (LV)± 4%41%46%-7%6%
Fox News[43] Sep 20–23, 2020810 (LV)± 3%41%52%3%2%2%
911 (RV)± 3%40%50%3%3%4%
ALG Research/ALG Research/The Nevada Independent (D)[44] Sep 15–21, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%43%47%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[45] Sep 8–10, 2020462 (LV)± 5.3%42%46%3%1%7%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 2020998 (LV)49%50%-1%
Qualtrics/University of Nevada/BUSRAug 20–30, 2020682 (LV)± 4%39%44%5%12%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20201,021 (LV)52%47%--2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 2020609 (LV)49%50%--1%
ALG Research/ALG Research/The Nevada Independent (D)[46] Apr 27–30, 2020763 (LV)± 3.6%45%49%
AtlasIntel[47] Feb 19–21, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%41%44%15%
FOX News[48] Jan 5–8, 20201,505 (RV)± 2.5%39%47%9%4%
FOX News[49] Nov 10–13, 20191,506 (RV)± 2.5%40%47%9%4%
Emerson College[50] Oct 31 – Nov 2, 20191,089 (RV)± 2.9%51%49%
Gravis Marketing[51] Aug 14–16, 2019926 (RV)± 3.2%43%49%8%
Emerson College[52] Mar 28–30, 2019719 (RV)± 3.6%48%52%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
OtherUndecided
AtlasIntelFeb 19–21, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%41%52%7%
FOX NewsJan 5–8, 20201,505 (RV)± 2.5%41%46%8%4%
FOX NewsNov 10–13, 20191,506 (RV)± 2.5%40%47%9%4%
Emerson CollegeOct 31 – Nov 2, 20191,089 (RV)± 2.9%50%50%
Gravis MarketingAug 14–16, 2019926 (RV)± 3.2%44%47%8%
Emerson CollegeMar 28–30, 2019719 (RV)± 3.6%51%49%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
OtherUndecided
AtlasIntelFeb 19–21, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%41%48%12%-
FOX NewsJan 5–8, 20201,505 (RV)± 2.5%42%43%10%5%
FOX NewsNov 10–13, 20191,506 (RV)± 2.5%41%44%10%5%
Emerson CollegeOct 31 – Nov 2, 20191,089 (RV)± 2.9%51%49%
Gravis MarketingAug 14–16, 2019926 (RV)± 3.2%47%46%7%
Emerson CollegeMar 28–30, 2019719 (RV)± 3.6%54%46%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
OtherUndecided
AtlasIntelFeb 19–21, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%38%49%14%-
FOX NewsJan 5–8, 20201,505 (RV)± 2.5%40%41%12%7%
FOX NewsNov 10–13, 20191,506 (RV)± 2.5%41%41%9%6%
Gravis MarketingAug 14–16, 2019926 (RV)± 3.2%46%42%12%
Emerson CollegeMar 28–30, 2019719 (RV)± 3.6%52%48%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Donald Trump vs. Marianne Williamson

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Gravis MarketingAug 14–16, 2019926 (RV)± 3.2%45%45%11%
Emerson CollegeMar 28–30, 2019719 (RV)± 3.6%51%49%

Donald Trump vs Generic Democrat vs Howard Schultz

Results

By county

CountyJoe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Carson City12,73542.82%16,11354.18%8913.00%-3,378-11.36%29,739
Churchill3,05123.67%9,37272.71%4673.62%-6,321-49.04%12,890
Clark521,85253.66%430,93044.31%19,7282.03%90,9229.35%972,510
Douglas11,57133.91%21,63063.38%9242.71%-10,059-29.47%34,125
Elko4,55720.74%16,74176.21%6693.05%-12,184-55.47%21,967
Esmeralda7415.20%40082.14%132.66%-326-66.94%487
Eureka10510.32%89588.00%171.68%-790-77.68%1,017
Humboldt1,68921.73%5,87775.63%2052.64%-4,188-53.90%7,771
Lander49617.94%2,19879.49%712.57%-1,702-61.55%2,765
Lincoln33013.49%2,06784.51%492.00%-1,737-71.02%2,446
Lyon8,47328.02%20,91469.16%8512.82%-12,441-41.14%30,238
Mineral82935.50%1,42360.94%833.56%-594-25.44%2,335
Nye7,28828.72%17,52869.07%5622.21%-10,240-40.35%25,378
Pershing54723.58%1,73174.61%421.81%-1,184-51.03%2,320
Storey90231.35%1,90866.32%672.33%-1,096-34.97%2,877
Washoe128,12850.82%116,76046.31%7,2542.87%11,3684.51%252,142
White Pine85919.66%3,40377.89%1072.45%-2,544-58.23%4,369
Totals703,48650.06%669,89047.67%32,0002.27%33,5962.39%1,405,376

By congressional district

Biden won 3 of the state's 4 congressional districts.

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
36.4%61.5%Dina Titus
53.6%43.6%Mark Amodei
49%49.2%Susie Lee
47%50.9%Steven Horsford

Analysis

Given the outcome of the election in other states, Nevada became a crucial swing state to determine whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump would win the 2020 presidential election. With Biden's win, this would mark the fourth presidential election in a row that Nevada has voted Democratic, although this is the first time since the beginning of the Democratic winning streak in Nevada that the state was more Republican than the nation, the last time being 2004, when incumbent George W. Bush carried the state by 2.6% and won the national popular vote by 2.4%. Nevada was the state that came closest to flipping from blue to red in 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic in particular had a strong effect on Nevada, as the pandemic negatively affected gambling and tourism, which the state's economy relies on. 22% of voters regarded the pandemic as the most important issue of the election, and these voters broke for Biden by 73 points.

Most counties in the state of Nevada are rural, and have voted Republican since 1980. As a whole, the rural counties outside of Las Vegas and Reno made up much of Trump's total. The state's two most populous counties, Clark County and Washoe County, which contain over 89% of the state's population, broke for Biden. Trump was able to narrow the Democratic margin in Clark to 9.35%, compared to 10.71% in 2016, winning 44.31% of the vote in the county. Outside of Clark and Reno, Biden's strongest performances would be in the Lake Tahoe areas of Carson City and Douglas County; while these areas are more rural and Republican-leaning, they are also reliant on both the gambling and tourism industries. Biden hit nearly 43% in Carson City, and received 33% of the vote in Douglas County—this totaled to more than 24,000 votes, effectively clinching the state for Biden.

Nevada received enhanced attention because of the delay in its finalization of results compared to most other battleground states. Three days before the state was called, the electoral map showed Biden at 264 electoral votes while having a narrow lead in Nevada, with Trump having a lead in the remaining uncalled swing states. Had the state been called for Biden sooner, its six electors would have increased his electoral vote count exactly to the required 270 to win the presidency. The delay in Nevada's results became an internet meme before the state was projected for Biden on November 7.[54]

Latino voters

Latinos were critical to Biden's victory in Nevada, particularly Latinos of Mexican heritage.[55] Latino membership in the Culinary Workers Union was a key driver of Democratic dominance in the state, with over 60,000 (mostly Latino) members who work in the Las Vegas casino, hotel, and service industries, as well as other tourism industries.

Voter demographics

2020 presidential election in Nevada by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[56]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of
total vote
Total vote504898
Ideology
Liberals89926
Moderates613737
Conservatives128538
Party
Democrats95535
Republicans59435
Independents504430
Gender
Men465148
Women544452
Race/ethnicity
White435665
Black80187
Latino613517
Asian64355
Other42545
Age
18–24 years old69269
25–29 years old52455
30–39 years old593917
40–49 years old494814
50–64 years old415724
65 and older465330
Sexual orientation
LGBT80167
Heterosexual475193
First-time voter
Yes554310
No504890
Education
High school or less494819
Some college education465235
Associate degree524614
Bachelor's degree484820
Postgraduate degree603812
Income
Under $30,000633517
$30,000–49,999504420
$50,000–99,999504933
$100,000–199,999415724
Over $200,00052476
Union households
Yes583919
No485081
Military service
Veterans297017
Non-veterans544483
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality90814
Coronavirus851222
Economy118736
Crime and safety118810
Health care841411
Region
Washoe County514718
Clark County544469
Rest of the state306813
Area type
Urban524671
Suburban584116
Rural306813
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago148435
Worse than four years ago851125
About the same603839

Aftermath

On November 5, the Nevada Republican Party alleged "at least 3,062 instances of voter fraud". Republican lawyers released a list of over 3,000 people who allegedly did not live in Clark County, Nevada, when they voted. However, these were not proven to be illegal votes, because Nevada (a) allows for people who moved states 30 days before the election to vote in Nevada's election, and (b) allows people studying in colleges in another state to vote in Nevada's election. Additionally, the list featured military members who were overseas and voted by mail.[57]

On November 17, representatives of the Trump campaign asked a judge to nullify Biden's 33,596-vote margin, and simply declare Trump the winner and his electors elected.[58] However, on November 24, the Nevada Supreme Court certified Biden as the winner of the state.[59]

In December 2023, six Republicans were indicted for their alleged role in the fake elector scheme.

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
  2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
  3. Web site: County Population Totals: 2010-2019. 2020-11-15. The United States Census Bureau. EN-US.
  4. Web site: Unions, progressives push for Latino Biden votes. 2020-11-09. Culinary Union Local 226. November 3, 2020 . en.
  5. Web site: Nevada, SC, Kansas GOP drop presidential nomination votes. Meg. Kinnard. September 7, 2019. AP NEWS.
  6. News: GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers. Boston Globe. MSN. Annie. Karni. September 6, 2019. September 7, 2019.
  7. News: GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged. ABC News. Will. Steakin. Kendall. Karson. September 6, 2019. September 7, 2019.
  8. News: Price. Michelle. Nevada GOP could let Trump bypass its nominating caucuses. Associated Press. August 2, 2019.
  9. News: Nevada GOP to vote Feb. 22 on endorsing Trump for president. Michelle Price. Associated Press. December 13, 2019. December 23, 2019.
  10. News: Nevada GOP awards all 25 delegates to Trump. Associated Press. PBS Newshour. February 22, 2020.
  11. Web site: The Nevada GOP Binds its Delegates to President Trump. Nevada Republican Party. February 22, 2020.
  12. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2019-05-21.
  13. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
  14. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
  15. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  16. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  17. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
  18. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
  19. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
  20. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
  21. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
  22. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
  23. Web site: 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes. 2020-08-03. NPR.org. August 3, 2020 . en. Montanaro . Domenico .
  24. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
  25. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020 . August 14, 2020.
  26. Web site: Nevada 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin. 270toWin.com.
  27. Web site: 2020 Nevada Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling. www.realclearpolling.com.
  28. Web site: Nevada : President: general election Polls. Ryan. Best. Aaron. Bycoffe. Ritchie. King. Dhrumil. Mehta. Anna. Wiederkehr. June 28, 2018. FiveThirtyEight.
  29. Web site: Nevada Nov 2, 2020 Presidential Poll.
  30. Web site: Candidate preference. www.tableau.com.
  31. Web site: Data for Progress.
  32. Web site: Emerson Polling - Super Poll Sunday: Toss-ups in Nevada and Arizona. emersonpolling.reportablenews.com.
  33. Web site: NV '20 Oct 29 Poll Report.pdf. Google Docs.
  34. Web site: Nevada Poll Results. October 29, 2020.
  35. Web site: Siena College/NYT Upshot.
  36. Web site: New poll shows Biden widening his lead over Trump in Nevada - Las Vegas Sun News.
  37. Web site: Civiqs/Daily Kos.
  38. Web site: The Nevada Poll™: Trump, Biden virtually tied. October 13, 2020.
  39. Web site: Biden leads Trump in Michigan and Nevada, and race is tied in Iowa — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll - CBS News. Jennifer De. Pinto. Fred. Backus. Anthony. Salvanto. Kabir. Khanna. Elena. Cox. October 12, 2020. www.cbsnews.com.
  40. Web site: Siena College/NYT Upshot.
  41. Web site: Trump Surging With Hispanic and Black Voters In Critical States › American Greatness. September 27, 2020. American Greatness.
  42. Web site: U.S. Presidential Election Poll – Nevada.
  43. Web site: Fox News.
  44. Web site: New Democratic poll shows Biden up 4 in Nevada. September 25, 2020. The Nevada Independent.
  45. Web site: Siena College/NYT Upshot.
  46. Web site: Poll: Sisolak looks strong despite shutdown; Biden has small lead over Trump. May 6, 2020. The Nevada Independent.
  47. Web site: AtlasIntel.
  48. Web site: Fox News Poll January 5-8, 2020: Nevada | PDF | Opinion Poll | Democratic Party (United States). Scribd.
  49. Web site: Fox News Poll Joe Biden, November 10-13, 2019 | PDF | Opinion Poll | Democratic Party (United States). Scribd.
  50. Web site: Emerson Polling - Nevada 2020: Biden Extends Lead, Warren Jumps to Second. emersonpolling.reportablenews.com.
  51. Web site: Gravis Marketing.
  52. Web site: Emerson College. https://web.archive.org/web/20190420142322/http://emersonpolling.com/2019/03/31/nevada-2020-biden-and-sanders-lead-democratic-primary-field-trump-looks-to-flip-the-silver-state-red/. April 20, 2019.
  53. Web site: DFM Research.
  54. Web site: CNN Announces the date of publication of crucial results for Nevada . Cnn.com. November 4, 2020 . 2020-11-05.
  55. Web site: Polls show how Latino voters helped drive Biden win in Nevada, though Trump gained ground since 2016. 2020-12-14. thenevadaindependent.com. November 16, 2020 . en.
  56. Web site: Nevada 2020 President exit polls.. 2020-12-14. www.cnn.com. en.
  57. News: Valverde . Miriam . Republicans in Nevada found "at least 3,062 instances of voter fraud. ... Thousands of individuals have been identified who appear to have violated the law by casting ballots after they moved from NV." . November 11, 2020 . . November 6, 2020.
  58. News: Wolfe . Jan . As options dwindle, Trump allies ask court to halt Biden's win in Nevada. November 20, 2020 . November 17, 2020 . Reuters . President Donald Trump's campaign on Tuesday announced a lawsuit to halt President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in Nevada.
  59. Web site: Durkee . Alison . Nevada Certifies Election Results, Making Biden's Victory Official . Forbes . November 24, 2020.