2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey explained

See main article: 2020 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Country:New Jersey
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
College Voted:yes
Previous Election:2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Previous Year:2016
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Next Election:2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Next Year:2024
Turnout: 72%
Image1:Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Joe Biden
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Delaware
Running Mate1:Kamala Harris
Electoral Vote1:14
Popular Vote1:2,608,400
Percentage1:
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Florida
Running Mate2:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:1,883,313
President
Before Election:Donald Trump
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Joe Biden
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Biden carried New Jersey by 15.94%, making the state 11.49% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's victory came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, including 86% of Blacks, 76% of Asians, 72% of Hispanic and Latino Americans, and 50% of Whites.[3] Biden's strength with Asian Americans was evident in New Jersey, where Asians constituted 10.0% of the population in 2019.[4] [5]

Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was reliably Democratic until Trump flipped it in 2016. He also became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win Morris County, which Cory Booker won in the simultaneous senate election.[6] This also became the first presidential election since 2000 in which Salem County did not vote for the national winner.[7] Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, fewer than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310.[8] Biden's 2.6 million votes is the most received by any candidate of either party in a presidential election in the state's history.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[9] On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election. Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application. Unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot. A limited number of polling stations in each county were available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.[10]

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary.[11] The state has 49 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[12]

Green primary

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[13] October 28, 2020
Inside Elections[14] October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] October 8, 2020
Politico[16] September 8, 2020
RCP[17] August 3, 2020
Niskanen[18] July 26, 2020
CNN[19] August 3, 2020
The Economist[20] September 2, 2020
CBS News[21] September 27, 2020
270towin[22] August 2, 2020
ABC News[23] July 31, 2020
NPR[24] October 30, 2020
NBC News[25] August 6, 2020
538[26] September 27, 2020
Fox News[27] November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Joe
Biden
! class="unsortable"
Donald
Trump

Other/
Undecided
Margin
270 to Win[28] October 9 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202056.5%37.3%6.2%Biden +19.2
Real Clear Politics[29] September 4 – October 13, 2020November 3, 202054.7%37.3%8.0%Biden +17.4
FiveThirtyEight[30] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202058.4%37.9%3.7%Biden +20.4
Average56.5%37.5%7.8%Biden +19.0

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
Donald
Trump

Joe
Biden
Jo
Jorgensen

Howie
Hawkins

OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20203,870 (LV)± 2%38%59%--
Research Co.[32] Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%40%59%--1%5%
Swayable[33] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020324 (LV)± 7.2%40%59%1%0%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosOct 1–28, 20206,472 (LV)37%60%--
Swayable[34] Oct 23–26, 2020386 (LV)± 6.5%38%62%0%0%
Rutgers-Eagleton[35] Oct 19–24, 2020834 (LV)± 4%37%59%--1%1%
Stockton College[36] Oct 7–13, 2020721 (LV)± 3.7%36%56%--
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[37] Oct 5–13, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%34%56%--10%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[38] Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020582 (LV)± 4.6%38%53%--5%4%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosSep 1–30, 20202,952 (LV)37%60%--3%
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[39] Sep 8–16, 2020501 (LV)± 4.4%38%52%--10%
Emerson College[40] Sep 4–7, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%40%58%--2%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosAug 1–31, 20202,309 (LV)40%57%--3%
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[41] Aug 5–13, 2020500 (LV)± 4.383%33%52%--15%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJul 1–31, 20202,426 (LV)37%61%--2%
Pollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler[42] Jul 7–12, 2020500 (LV)± 4.383%33%51%--7%8%
SurveyMonkey/AxiosJun 8–30, 20201,110 (LV)37%61%--3%
Quinnipiac[43] Apr 30 – May 4, 2020941 (RV)± 3.2%35%54%--3%8%
Rutgers-Eagleton[44] Apr 22 – May 2, 2020689 (RV)± 4.2%33%56%--5%7%
Monmouth University[45] Apr 16–19, 2020635 (RV)± 3.9%38%54%--2%6%
Fairleigh Dickinson University[46] Feb 12–16, 2020715 (RV)35%53%--

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Results

By county

CountyJoe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Atlantic73,80852.71%64,43846.02%1,7851.27%9,3706.69%140,031
Bergen285,96757.44%204,41741.06%7,4541.50%81,55016.38%497,838
Burlington154,59558.86%103,34539.35%4,7101.79%51,25019.51%262,650
Camden175,06565.91%86,20732.46%4,3271.63%88,85833.45%265,599
Cape May23,94141.33%33,15857.24%8341.43%-9,217-15.91%57,933
Cumberland32,74252.32%28,95246.27%8811.41%3,7906.05%62,575
Essex266,82077.07%75,47521.80%3,8921.13%191,34555.27%346,187
Gloucester86,70249.99%83,34048.05%3,4111.96%3,3621.94%173,453
Hudson181,45272.45%65,69826.23%3,3081.32%115,75446.22%250,458
Hunterdon39,45746.60%43,15350.96%2,0632.44%-3,696-4.36%84,673
Mercer122,53269.14%51,64129.14%3,0501.72%70,89140.00%177,223
Middlesex226,25060.22%143,46738.19%5,9751.59%82,78322.03%375,692
Monmouth181,29147.91%191,80850.69%5,2911.40%-10,517-2.78%378,390
Morris153,88151.14%141,13446.90%5,9021.96%12,7474.24%300,917
Ocean119,45634.85%217,74063.53%5,5501.62%-98,274-28.68%342,746
Passaic129,09757.55%92,00941.02%3,2241.43%37,08816.53%224,330
Salem14,47942.53%18,82755.31%7362.16%-4,348-12.78%34,042
Somerset111,17359.49%71,99638.52%3,7221.99%39,17720.97%186,891
Sussex34,48139.03%51,70158.52%2,1732.45%-17,220-19.49%88,355
Union170,31067.01%80,03831.49%3,7941.50%90,27235.52%254,142
Warren24,90140.78%34,76956.95%1,3872.27%-9,868-16.17%61,057
Totals2,608,40057.14%1,883,31341.25%73,4691.61%725,08715.89%4,565,182

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Biden won 9 out of the 12 congressional districts in New Jersey. Trump won 3, including one that elected a Democrat.[47]

DistrictBidenTrumpRepresentative
62.1%36.6%Donald Norcross
47.9%50.8%Jeff Van Drew
49.2%49.4%
44.1%54.6%Chris Smith
51.9%46.7%Josh Gottheimer
57.2%41.5%Frank Pallone Jr.
54.2%44.3%
71.8%27.2%Albio Sires
62.2%36.8%Bill Pascrell
84.2%15.0%Donald Payne Jr.
52.7%46.0%Mikie Sherrill
67.3%31.4%Bonnie Watson Coleman

[48]

Analysis

As the polls predicted, Joe Biden won New Jersey by a wide margin. Biden ran up huge margins in the state's major cities such as Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, Atlantic City, Camden, and several others. In addition to carrying all the counties that Clinton won in 2016, Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was a reliably blue county before Trump won it in 2016. Biden also won Morris County, which had never voted Democratic in any presidential race since 1964; Senator Cory Booker concurrently won Morris County in his reelection victory as well. In neighboring Hunterdon County, Biden came within 4.4 points of victory despite the county being a reliably Republican stronghold as well. Biden recorded the highest share of the vote in Sussex and Hunterdon Counties for a Democrat since 1964, the last time either county voted Democratic.

Trump, meanwhile, performed strongly in Ocean County, which is reliably red. He also did well in Sussex and Warren counties, two northern rural counties that have not voted Democratic since 1964. Salem County, which Trump flipped in 2016, remained in his column and he also narrowly held on to Monmouth County, which has not voted Democratic since 2000 but where the margins have always been somewhat close. He also improved in the urban counties of Essex and Hudson, due to noticeable improvements in several of those counties' most populated cities, such as Jersey City and Newark.[49]

Ultimately, Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Compared to their 2016 margins, 471 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities swung towards Biden in this election. However, Trump was able to improve significantly upon his 2016 margins in many of New Jersey's most heavily populated cities, which kept the statewide margin within 2% of the 2016 results. For example, in New Jersey's most populated city, Newark, Trump nearly doubled his 2016 share of the vote, going from 6.63% to 12.25% of the vote.[49] This was the best Republican performance in Newark since George W. Bush received 12.8% of the vote in 2004.[50] Other populated cities, such as Paterson and Camden, posted similarly notable shifts towards the GOP, with much of the rest of the state shifting towards the Democrats instead.

Voter demographics

2020 presidential election in New Jersey voter demographics[51]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of
total vote
Total vote5741100
Ideology
Liberals92734
Moderates633535
Conservatives118831
Party (including leaners)
Democrat or lean democrat95453
Republican or lean republican108942
Independent55415
Gender
Men494947
Women643553
Marital status
Married544461
Never married683023
Gender by marital status
Married men474929
Married women584131
Unmarried men--15
Unmarried women683125
Race/ethnicity
White504971
Black861211
Latino722711
Asian76233
Other--3
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men425633
White women564438
Black men--4
Black women--7
Latino men--6
Latina women--6
Other66327
Religion
Protestant/Other Christian564228
Catholic475239
Jewish70308
Other religion67327
None732517
White evangelical or born-again Christian
Yes--9
No594091
Age
18–24 years old59406
25–29 years old66324
30–39 years old663315
40–49 years old574114
50–64 years old544432
65 and older544628
Age by race
White 18–29 years old57427
White 30–44 years old534614
White 45–64 years old475228
White 65 and older475222
Nonwhite 18–29 years old69294
Nonwhite 30–44 years old79198
Nonwhite 45–64 years old752411
Nonwhite 65 and older--6
Sexual orientation
LGBT--6
Non-LGBT574294
Education
High school or less544425
Some college education or Associate degree514727
College graduate633630
Postgraduate degree603918
Education by race
White college graduates574235
White no college degree425635
Black college graduates--4
Black no college degree--7
Latino college graduates-- 4
Latino no college degree69297
All others66327
Education by race/gender
White women with college degrees653417
White women without college degrees475220
White men with college degrees495018
White men without college degrees356315
Nonwhite women with college degrees84157
Nonwhite women without college degrees83159
Nonwhite men with college degrees68306
Nonwhite men without college degrees66328
Income
Under $50,000633626
$50,000–99,999554437
$100,000 or more554337
Military service
Veterans--9
Veteran in household--14
Non-veterans633777
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality80209
COVID-19 pandemic752443
207826
Crime and safety--4
Health care791910
Climate change9193
Area type
Urban673115
Suburban594062
Small town485115
Rural44568
Family's financial situation today
Getting ahead--13
Falling behind663417
Holding steady574370
Abortion should be
Legal in all/most cases702971
Illegal in all/most cases257228
Climate change is a serious problem
Yes772275
No118925

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?. https://web.archive.org/web/20180802011326/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections-key-dates-midterms-2020-presidential-house-congress-senate-a8472821.html . 2018-08-02 . limited . live. Kelly. Ben. August 13, 2018. The Independent. January 3, 2019.
  2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. January 3, 2019.
  3. News: 2020-11-03. New Jersey Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. 2020-11-09. 0362-4331.
  4. Web site: Mehta. Dhrumil. 2020-09-18. How Asian Americans Are Thinking About The 2020 Election. 2020-11-09. FiveThirtyEight. en-US.
  5. Web site: QuickFacts New Jersey . United States Census Bureau . May 21, 2021.
  6. Web site: Homan. Timothy R.. 2020-11-11. On The Trail: Biden wins America's economic engines. 2020-11-15. The Hill. en.
  7. Web site: General Election Results: President (1992). 2020-12-20. New Jersey Division of Elections.
  8. Web site: These 53 N.J. Towns flipped from Trump to Biden in 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210801203909/https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/these-53-n-j-towns-flipped-from-trump-to-biden-in-2020/ar-BB1c8xJr . August 1, 2021 . April 6, 2024 . MSN.
  9. News: New Jersey moves primary elections to July. The Hill. April 8, 2020.
  10. Web site: N.J.'s July 7 primary election will be mostly vote-by-mail during coronavirus pandemic, Murphy says. May 15, 2020.
  11. News: Trump, Biden (no surprise) prevail in N.J.'s presidential primary. NJ.com. July 7, 2020.
  12. Web site: New Jersey Republican Delegation 2020. The Green Papers. June 23, 2020.
  13. Web site: 2020 POTUS Race ratings. The Cook Political Report. en. 2020-10-31.
  14. Web site: POTUS Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. 2019-05-21.
  15. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. 2019-05-21.
  16. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  17. Web site: Battle for White House. April 19, 2019 . RCP.
  18. https://www.niskanencenter.org/bitecofer-post-primary-update/ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions
  19. Web site: David Chalian . Terence Burlij. Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020. 2020-06-16. CNN. June 11, 2020 .
  20. News: Forecasting the US elections . The Economist . July 7, 2020.
  21. Web site: 2020 Election Battleground Tracker. CBS News. July 12, 2020. July 13, 2020.
  22. Web site: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 270 to Win.
  23. Web site: ABC News Race Ratings. CBS News. July 24, 2020. July 24, 2020.
  24. News: Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path . 2020-10-31. NPR. en.
  25. Web site: Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten. 2020-08-06. NBC News. August 6, 2020 . en.
  26. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020 . August 14, 2020.
  27. Web site: 2020 Battleground Power Rankings . Fox News . November 2, 2020.
  28. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/new-jersey/ 270 to Win
  29. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nj/new_jersey_trump_vs_biden-7193.html Real Clear Politics
  30. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/new-jersey/ FiveThirtyEight
  31. https://www.tableau.com/data-insights/us-election-2020/candidate-preference SurveyMonkey/Axios
  32. https://researchco.ca/2020/11/02/us2020-eight-states-uspoli/ Research Co.
  33. https://www.swayable.com/polls/2020-11-02-large.html Swayable
  34. https://www.swayable.com/polls/2020-10-28.html Swayable
  35. https://www.insidernj.com/rutgers-eagleton-poll-biden-holds-large-lead-new-jersey/ Rutgers-Eagleton
  36. https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2020-1016-stockton-poll-biden-booker-lead-trump-stronger-in-sj.pdf Stockton College
  37. https://www.investorideas.com/news/2020/cannabis/10202New-Jersey-Low-Level-Marijuana-Convictions.asp DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler
  38. http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2020/201009/final.pdf Fairleigh Dickinson University
  39. https://cannabislaw.report/nj-law-firm-brach-eichler-survey-reveals-65-voters-in-the-state-want-legal-cannabis/ DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler
  40. https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-jersey-2020-biden-and-booker-with-significant-leads-in-the-garden-state Emerson College
  41. https://www.bracheichler.com/insights/brach-eichler-poll-shows-new-jersey-voters-favor-a-higher-sales-tax-on-legal-marijuana/ DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler
  42. https://www.marijuanamoment.net/nearly-seven-in-ten-new-jersey-voters-support-marijuana-legalization-ballot-measure-poll-finds/ Pollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler
  43. https://poll.qu.edu/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=3660 Quinnipiac
  44. https://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Vote-By-Mail-NJ-Primaries-2020.pdf Rutgers-Eagleton
  45. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nj_042320.pdf/ Monmouth University
  46. http://publicmind.fdu.edu/2020/200218/final.pdf Fairleigh Dickinson University
  47. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012. Daily Kos . 2021-02-10.
  48. Web site: New Jersey Department of State - Division of Elections.
  49. Web site: NJ DOS - Division of Elections - 2020 Election Information.
  50. Web site: 2004 Presidential Election - Essex County.
  51. News: 2020-11-03. New Jersey Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted. en-US. The New York Times. 2024-04-27. 0362-4331.