2022 United States Senate election in Florida explained

Election Name:2022 United States Senate election in Florida
Country:Florida
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States Senate election in Florida
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2028 United States Senate election in Florida
Next Year:2028
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Image1:Senator Rubio official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Marco Rubio
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:4,474,847
Percentage1:57.68%
Nominee2:Val Demings
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:3,201,522
Percentage2:41.27%
U.S. senator
Before Election:Marco Rubio
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Marco Rubio
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Val Demings in a landslide. Rubio was first elected in 2010, filling the seat of appointed Senator George LeMieux. Rubio won re-election to a third term, becoming the first Republican to do so in Florida history.[1]

The primary elections for Republicans and Democrats took place on August 23 to finalize candidates for the November election.[2] [3] Rubio won the uncontested Republican primary, while incumbent U.S. Representative Val Demings won the Democratic nomination.

Despite some predicting a close race early,[4] Rubio went on to win by a comfortable 16.4%, improving upon his 2016 performance by 8.7%.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Did not qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Independent and third-party candidates

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Qualified

Unity Party

Candidates

Did not file

Independent candidates

Candidates

Declared
Did not qualify
Did not file
Withdraw
Declined

Write-ins

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[66] October 18, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[67] August 25, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] August 24, 2022
Politico[69] November 3, 2022
RCP[70] February 24, 2022
align=left Fox News[71] May 12, 2022
DDHQ[72] July 20, 2022
538[73] November 4, 2022
The Economist[74] September 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Marco
Rubio (R)
Val
Demings (D)
Undecided
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 17, 2022 – November 6, 2022November 8, 202252.4%43.6%4.0%Rubio +8.8
FiveThirtyEightSeptember 18, 2022 – November 4, 2022November 8, 202252.3%43.5%4.2%Rubio +8.8
270towinNovember 4–7, 2022November 8, 202251.6%42.4%6.0%Rubio +9.2
Average52.1%43.2%4.7%Rubio +8.9
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Val
Demings (D)
OtherUndecided
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%52%42%2%4%
Data for Progress (D)November 2–6, 20221,436 (LV)± 3.0%55%43%2%
Amber Integrated (R)November 1–2, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%49%40%4%7%
CiviqsOctober 29 – November 2, 2022772 (LV)± 3.9%52%45%2%1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)November 1, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%51%45%1%3%
Siena CollegeOctober 30 – November 1, 2022659 (LV)± 4.4%51%43%2%4%
Victory InsightsOctober 30 – November 1, 2022500 (LV)± 4.8%50%46%5%
Florida State University/YouGovOctober 20–31, 20221,117 (RV)51%44%
University of North Florida October 17–24, 2022622 (LV)± 4.7%54%43%<1%3%
Data for Progress (D)October 19–23, 20221,251 (LV)± 3.0%51%44%2%2%
Florida Atlantic UniversityOctober 12–16, 2022719 (LV)± 3.7%48%42%3%7%
RMG Research (R) October 10–13, 2022685 (LV)± 3.7%50%45%5%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategySeptember 26–28, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%47%41%2%10%
Siena CollegeSeptember 18–25, 2022669 (LV)± 4.5%48%41%2%9%
CiviqsSeptember 17–20, 2022617 (LV)± 4.5%49%47%3%2%
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 15–18, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%45%41%4%9%
Sachs MediaSeptember 10, 2022600 (LV)49%46%5%
Kurt Jetta (D)September 9–10, 2022999 (RV)± 3.0%48%40%12%
563 (LV)50%45%5%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022815 (RV)± 4.3%50%41%9%
InsiderAdvantage (R)September 5–6, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%46%44%10%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)August 29 – September 4, 2022500 (LV)± 4.3%47%44%9%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)August 24–31, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%47%4%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)August 25–30, 20223,017 (LV)± 1.8%46%45%9%
Impact Research (D)August 12–18, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%49%46%5%
Kurt Jetta (D)August 12–14, 2022996 (RV)± 3.1%46%39%14%
610 (LV)± 4.0%52%41%7%
University of North Florida August 8–12, 20221,624 (RV)± 3.4%44%48%7%2%
Change Research (D)August 2–5, 20221,031 (LV)± 3.1%46%46%7%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)July 26–31, 20222,244 (LV)± 2.1%45%45%10%
Kurt Jetta (D)July 9, 2022906 (A)± 3.3%46%38%16%
732 (RV)± 3.6%45%40%16%
428 (LV)± 4.7%50%42%8%
Public Policy Polling (D)May 26–27, 2022655 (V)± 3.8%47%41%12%
Phillips AcademyMay 7–9, 2022543 (RV)± 4.2%34%36%30%
Moore Information Group (R)March 14–19, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%47%32%8%12%
Saint Leo University February 28 – March 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.5%45%27%28%
Kurt Jetta (D)March 4, 20221,098 (A)± 3.0%45%26%29%
893 (RV)± 3.3%45%27%28%
446 (LV)± 4.6%49%35%16%
University of North Florida February 7–20, 2022685 (RV)± 3.7%46%34%20%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyFebruary 7–10, 2022625 (RV)± 4.0%49%42%9%
Suffolk UniversityJanuary 26–29, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%41%0%10%
St. Pete PollsNovember 18–19, 20212,896 (LV)± 1.8%51%44%5%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021867 (RV)± 3.3%45%33%3%12%
842 (LV)± 3.4%48%36%3%10%
Saint Leo UniversityOctober 17–23, 2021500 (A)± 4.5%47%29%25%
VCreek/AMG (R)September 23–27, 2021405 (LV)± 4.9%42%38%5%15%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,000 (RV)± 3.1%46%34%3%11%
977 (LV)± 3.1%48%37%3%10%
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R)August 14–18, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.1%55%45%
St. Pete PollsAugust 16–17, 20212,068 (RV)± 2.2%48%46%6%
Change Research (D)August 14–17, 20211,585 (LV)± 2.5%47%44%9%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)August 4–10, 2021700 (RV)± 3.7%50%39%1%9%
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R)June 27, 2021681 (LV)± 3.9%60%40%
Marco Rubio vs. Aramis Ayala
Marco Rubio vs. Alan Grayson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021867 (RV)± 3.3%43%34%4%12%
842 (LV)± 3.4%46%37%4%10%
VCreek/AMG (R)September 23–27, 2021405 (LV)± 4.9%44%32%10%14%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,000 (RV)± 3.1%46%33%4%12%
977 (LV)± 3.1%48%36%4%11%
Marco Rubio vs. Stephanie Murphy
Marco Rubio vs. generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Mason-DixonFebruary 24–28, 2021625 (RV)± 4.0%46%40%14%
Data for Progress (D)September 15–22, 2020620 (LV)± 3.9%42%43%15%

Results

By county

CountyMarco Rubio
Republican
Val Demings
Democratic
Dennis Misigoy
Libertarian
Steven B. Grant
Independent
Tuan Nguyen
Independent
Write-inMarginTotal
votes
data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %
Alachua39,22040.9755,43957.914390.463490.362850.3020.00-16,219-16.9495,734
Baker9,43188.211,18111.05430.40310.2960.0600.008,25077.1610,692
Bay51,65777.1514,54721.733000.452550.381960.2910.0037,11055.4266,956
Bradford8,15679.881,94219.02370.36550.54190.1910.016,21460.8610,210
Brevard165,23361.8598,97837.051,2360.461,0750.406310.24100.0066,25524.80267,163
Broward238,96239.96353,57559.122,0810.352,0830.351,2230.201220.02-114,613-19.16598,046
Calhoun4,06784.1770014.49130.27400.83120.2500.003,36769.684,832
Charlotte63,84569.0627,75730.022540.274520.491380.1520.0036,08839.0492,448
Citrus55,08772.8019,63425.952950.394910.651580.2130.0035,45346.8575,668
Clay65,97273.2623,05425.604410.493770.422010.2240.0042,91847.6690,049
Collier116,05070.9846,53728.463870.243400.211710.1040.0069,51342.52163,489
Columbia18,34477.555,07021.43930.391030.44450.1900.0013,27456.1123,655
DeSoto6,46974.712,09724.22270.31510.59150.1700.004,37250.498,659
Dixie5,22585.1882613.47210.34520.85100.1600.004,39971.726,134
Duval177,40153.95147,64644.901,5670.481,2680.399570.2920.0029,7559.05328,841
Escambia73,22563.4040,79035.325980.524590.404200.3640.0032,43528.08115,496
Flagler37,93464.7120,20434.472040.351910.33860.1520.0017,73030.2558,621
Franklin3,88571.711,47127.15230.42290.54100.1800.002,41444.565,418
Gadsden6,08635.0111,11363.93630.36990.57230.1300.00-5,027-28.9217,384
Gilchrist6,65784.851,08713.85400.51470.60140.1810.015,57070.997,846
Glades3,02679.2676420.01100.26160.4220.0500.002,26259.253,818
Gulf5,06978.971,29520.17190.30240.37120.1900.003,77458.796,419
Hamilton3,03070.761,21528.37180.42150.3540.0900.001,81542.394,282
Hardee4,48081.1398117.77230.42300.5480.1400.003,49963.365,522
Hendry6,00872.972,12125.76360.44540.66140.1700.003,88747.218,233
Hernando54,82268.4024,29830.323520.444620.582140.2710.0030,52438.0880,149
Highlands28,77772.4310,48026.381460.372660.67620.1600.0018,29746.0539,731
Hillsborough253,49552.55222,37846.102,4980.522,3450.491,6180.3490.0031,1176.45482,343
Holmes6,15190.865568.21230.34340.5060.0900.005,59682.646,770
Indian River50,87865.9125,61333.182680.352970.381330.1730.0025,26532.7377,192
Jackson12,18874.873,95624.30410.25800.49140.0900.008,23250.5716,279
Jefferson4,13758.072,92941.11240.34240.34100.1400.001,20816.967,124
Lafayette2,52186.7234811.97110.38220.7650.1700.002,17374.752,907
Lake103,10364.4355,37734.616190.396240.392870.1830.0047,72629.83160,013
Lee185,12367.4487,10831.738980.339340.344460.1610.0098,01535.71274,510
Leon46,51139.5969,67759.314950.424280.363750.3210.00-23,166-19.72117,487
Levy13,69076.633,94422.08700.391160.65440.2510.019,74654.5517,865
Liberty2,16483.1740515.56110.42190.7330.1200.001,75967.602,602
Madison4,47664.162,44235.01230.33260.3790.1300.002,03429.166,976
Manatee108,23463.1561,42335.847370.436800.403120.1880.0046,81127.31171,394
Marion104,65567.1849,69831.906250.405790.372280.1560.0054,95735.28155,791
Martin52,31267.4424,63931.772420.312590.331100.1420.0027,67335.6877,564
Miami-Dade386,25154.27318,97844.822,5930.362,6330.371,2570.1830.0067,2739.45711,715
Monroe19,89758.5713,75640.491510.441070.31610.1800.006,14118.0833,972
Nassau35,94475.3311,33723.762010.421660.35640.1310.0024,60751.5747,713
Okaloosa60,80875.2718,85123.334730.593710.462860.3500.0041,95751.9380,789
Okeechobee8,53278.542,21820.42380.35590.54160.1500.006,31458.1210,863
Orange177,10543.51225,56955.421,7580.431,3880.341,2240.3090.00-48,464-11.91407,053
Osceola51,42250.0749,90748.605320.525130.503120.3070.011,5151.48102,693
Palm Beach267,71549.34269,83949.731,8000.332,2400.411,0100.19140.00-2,124-0.39542,618
Pasco143,76064.0577,66434.601,0630.471,3250.596220.2870.0066,09629.45224,441
Pinellas223,74753.01192,05845.512,5990.622,3530.561,2880.3120.0031,6897.51422,047
Polk144,54862.9882,26135.849800.431,2100.534930.2160.0062,28727.14229,498
Putnam19,81274.656,45024.30960.361390.52430.1600.0013,36250.3526,540
Santa Rosa59,11178.2215,55420.583920.523230.431900.2500.0043,55757.6475,570
Sarasota129,86559.4686,61839.667440.348320.383550.1620.0043,24719.80218,416
Seminole97,76153.4183,28545.508700.486500.364570.2550.0014,4767.91183,028
St. Johns98,56468.2744,37130.736590.464760.332880.20130.0154,19337.54144,371
St. Lucie69,92457.4050,85141.744150.344140.342200.1800.0019,07315.66121,824
Sumter63,80671.4425,01028.001890.212200.25910.1010.0038,79643.4489,317
Suwannee13,12580.493,01818.51570.35830.51230.1400.0010,10761.9816,306
Taylor6,06379.601,49519.63250.33260.3480.1100.004,56859.977,617
Union3,91786.3058012.78130.29220.4870.1500.003,33773.524,539
Volusia139,08561.5884,54337.439430.428710.394170.1830.0054,54224.15225,862
Wakulla10,48569.914,34328.96690.46650.43350.2310.016,14240.9514,998
Walton28,20381.006,32618.171240.36990.28650.1900.0021,87762.8334,817
Washington7,64184.011,34514.79420.46500.55170.1900.006,29669.229,095
Totals4,474,84757.683,201,52241.2732,1770.4131,8160.4117,3850.222670.001,273,32516.417,758,014
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Rubio won 20 of 28 congressional districts.[75]

DistrictRubioDemingsRepresentative
72%27%Matt Gaetz
60%39%Neal Dunn
62%37%Kat Cammack
59%40%Aaron Bean
64%35%John Rutherford
66%33%Michael Waltz
57%42%Stephanie Murphy (117th Congress)
Cory Mills (118th Congress)
63%36%Bill Posey
48%51%Darren Soto
39%60%Val Demings (117th Congress)
Maxwell Frost (118th Congress)
61%38%Daniel Webster
68%31%Gus Bilirakis
56%42%Anna Paulina Luna
45%53%Kathy Castor
57%41%Laurel Lee
60%39%Vern Buchanan
63%35%Greg Steube
68%31%Scott Franklin
68%31%Byron Donalds
28%71%Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
61%39%Brian Mast
46%53%Lois Frankel
48%51%Jared Moskowitz
29%69%Frederica Wilson
45%54%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
70%30%Mario Díaz-Balart
57%42%María Elvira Salazar
63%37%Carlos A. Giménez

Voter demographics

Demings!
RubioNo
answer
% of
voters
Gender
Men3762149
Women4851151
Age
18–24 years old574127
25–29 years old583924
30–39 years old5543N/A13
40–49 years old4158112
50–64 years old3862N/A32
65 and older3762133
Race
White3564164
Black909N/A11
Latino4156221
Race by gender
White men2871N/A32
White women4357232
Black men891115
Black women928N/A6
Latino men4255210
Latina women4157111
Education
High school or less3563215
Some college education4258125
Associate degree4257219
Bachelor's degree4454124
Advanced degree4851117
Party ID
Democrats973N/A28
Republicans397142
Independents4849230
Ideology
Liberals918120
Moderates5741139
Conservatives793242
Marital status
Married4060159
Unmarried5048241
Gender by marital status
Married men3366130
Married women4653129
Unmarried men4851318
Unmarried women5247223
First-time midterm election voter
Yes4258411
No4455N/A89
Most important issue facing the country
Crime3266210
Inflation2872139
Gun policy6336N/A10
Immigration1288N/A10
Abortion8118N/A24
Area type
Urban4554146
Suburban4257244
Rural3168N/A10
Source: CNN[76]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: 2022-11-08 . Florida Governor Election Results . en-US . . 2022-11-09 . 0362-4331.
  2. Web site: United States Senate election in Florida, 2022 . 2022-06-05 . Ballotpedia . en.
  3. Web site: Election Dates - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State . 2022-06-28 . dos.myflorida.com.
  4. Web site: Val Demings Could be Victorious in Florida Senate Race, Poll Suggests . .
  5. Web site: November 9, 2020 . Sen. Marco Rubio for reelection in 2022 . November 9, 2020 . The Floridian . en-US.
  6. Web site: September 28, 2021. FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1539881. live. 2021-10-06. Federal Election Commission. https://web.archive.org/web/20210929013325/http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/S2FL00706/1539881 . September 29, 2021 .
  7. Web site: April 14, 2021. Candidate Tracking system - Florida Division of Elections - Department of State. live. 2021-05-20. Florida Department of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20210520003508/https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=79376 . May 20, 2021 .
  8. Web site: January 13, 2021 . STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY . live . January 18, 2021 . Federal Election Commission. https://web.archive.org/web/20210813005115/https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/939/202101139398461939/202101139398461939.pdf . August 13, 2021 .
  9. Web site: April 20, 2021 . FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY . live . April 25, 2021 . Federal Election Commission. https://web.archive.org/web/20210425050619/https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/432/202104209444016432/202104209444016432.pdf . April 25, 2021 .
  10. Web site: Candidate Tracking system - Florida Division of Elections - Department of State. live. 2021-06-12. Florida Department of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20210612093304/https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=79505 . June 12, 2021 .
  11. Web site: March 24, 2021. FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1506231. live. 2021-03-29. Federal Election Commission. https://web.archive.org/web/20210324230553/https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/S2FL00557/1506231 . March 24, 2021 .
  12. Web site: Candidate Tracking system - Florida Division of Elections - Department of State. live. 2021-06-12. Florida Department of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20210612093723/https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=79341 . June 12, 2021 .
  13. Web site: January 31, 2021 . FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1496158 . live . 2021-02-23 . Federal Election Commission. https://web.archive.org/web/20210131165550/https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/S2FL00490/1496158 . January 31, 2021 .
  14. Web site: Candidate Tracking system - Florida Division of Elections - Department of State . live . 2021-02-26 . Florida Department of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20220422184209/https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=79258 . April 22, 2022 .
  15. Web site: Manjarres . Javier . February 6, 2021 . Ivanka Trump, Pam Bondi will not challenge Rubio in 2022 · The Floridian . live . February 7, 2021 . The Floridian . en-US. https://web.archive.org/web/20210206150037/https://floridianpress.com/2021/02/ivanka-trump-pam-bondi-will-not-challenge-rubio-in-2022/ . February 6, 2021 .
  16. Web site: Manjarres . Javier . November 4, 2019 . Succeeding Marco Rubio in 2022 . September 22, 2020 . The Floridian.
  17. News: Contorno . Steve . January 19, 2021 . Matt Gaetz won't challenge Marco Rubio in 2022, he says . . January 19, 2021.
  18. Web site: Speare-Cole . Rebecca . 2020-12-14 . Roger Stone considers running for Senate in Florida against Marco Rubio or Rick Scott . live . 2021-02-23 . . en. https://web.archive.org/web/20201214155743/https://www.newsweek.com/roger-stone-considers-running-senate-florida-marco-rubio-rick-scott-1554546 . December 14, 2020 .
  19. Web site: Smiley . David . December 17, 2020 . Marco Rubio may face a Florida primary challenge in 2022. Here's why. . December 19, 2020 . . en.
  20. Web site: Zitser. Joshua. June 5, 2021. Trump on idea to run for House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker and launch an impeachment inquiry against Biden: 'It's very interesting'. live. 2021-06-06. Business Insider. en-US. https://web.archive.org/web/20210605110526/https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-eyes-congress-run-to-become-speaker-and-impeach-biden-2021-6 . June 5, 2021 .
  21. Web site: Greenwood. Max. 2021-04-09. Trump hands Rubio coveted reelection endorsement in Florida. 2021-06-06. The Hill. en.
  22. News: Luscombe . Richard . 2021-01-24 . 'I like Ivanka': Marco Rubio sweats over rumoured Trump Senate challenge . en-GB . . 2021-02-23 . 0261-3077.
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