| Election Name: | 2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky |
| Country: | Kentucky |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky |
| Previous Year: | 2016 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States Senate election in Kentucky |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| Nominee1: | Rand Paul |
| Image1: | File:Rand Paul Official Portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Party1: | Republican Party (US) |
| Popular Vote1: | 913,326 |
| Percentage1: | 61.80% |
| Nominee2: | Charles Booker |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (US) |
| Popular Vote2: | 564,311 |
| Percentage2: | 38.19% |
| Map Size: | 301px |
| U.S. Senator | |
| Before Election: | Rand Paul |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (US) |
| After Election: | Rand Paul |
| After Party: | Republican Party (US) |
The 2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Rand Paul won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Charles Booker with 61.8% of the vote.
Paul was first elected in 2010 with 55.7% of the vote, filling the seat of retiring Jim Bunning, then re-elected in 2016 with 57.3% of the vote. Paul ran for a third term.[1] Booker is a former state representative and a candidate in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in 2020. The election was called for Paul shortly after polls closed in the state.[2]
This was the biggest landslide victory for a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky since Mitch McConnell's win in 2002.
Although Rand Paul supports a Constitutional amendment limiting Senators to two terms, he said, "I'm not in favor of term limits for some and not others. So I'm not in favor of people self-imposing term limits. I'm a co-sponsor of the constitutional amendment, but I will run again in 2022."[1] Kentucky held its primary election on May 17.[3]
Although Paul had initially pledged to serve only one term,[12] he later reversed this stance and ran for re-election.[13] In both 2010 and 2016, he faced tight races, even as these years were generally unfavorable for the Democratic Party and Kentucky's conservative partisan lean. Paul had gained a reputation as one of the most libertarian senators and often breaks with his party despite still holding conservative views on most issues.[14] [15]
Following a narrow primary defeat to Amy McGrath in the 2020 Kentucky Senate Democratic primaries, State Representative Charles Booker announced his intention to run again, this time against Paul.[16] Booker positioned himself as a progressive populist, advocating for abortion rights, Universal Basic Income, Medicare for All, and a Green New Deal.[17] He aimed to resonate with traditional Democratic voters in the urban centers of Louisville and Lexington, while also reaching out to ancestral Democrats in Kentucky's Appalachian region.[18]
An early February poll showed Paul leading by only a few points against a generic Democrat.[19] However, a later poll revealed Paul had a substantial lead over Booker.[20] In October, a debate was scheduled to include both Paul and Booker, but Paul did not respond to the invitation, resulting in Booker debating alone.[21]
Paul went on to easily win re-election, improving his 2016 performance by approximately 9 percentage points. However, due to lower voter turnout, he underperformed compared to Trump's 2020 performance in the state by 2 points and received a slightly smaller percentage of the vote.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[22] | November 19, 2021 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[23] | January 7, 2022 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | November 3, 2021 | |
| Politico[25] | October 18, 2022 | ||
| RCP[26] | January 10, 2022 | ||
| align=left | Fox News[27] | May 12, 2022 | |
| DDHQ[28] | July 20, 2022 | ||
| 538[29] | June 30, 2022 | ||
| The Economist[30] | September 7, 2022 |
Paul won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[31]
| District | Paul | Booker | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 29% | James Comer | ||||
| 68% | 32% | Brett Guthrie | ||||
| 40% | 60% | John Yarmuth (117th Congress) | ||||
| Morgan McGarvey (118th Congress) | ||||||
| 66% | 34% | Thomas Massie | ||||
| 75% | 25% | Hal Rogers | ||||
| 54% | 46% | Andy Barr |