2023 Portage—Lisgar federal by-election explained

Election Name:2023 Portage—Lisgar federal by-election
Country:Canada
Seats For Election:Riding of Portage—Lisgar
Type:Parliamentary
Ongoing:no
Party Colour:no
Party Name:no
Previous Election:2021 Canadian federal election
Previous Year:2021
Next Election:45th Canadian federal election
Next Year:45th
Turnout:45.47%
Candidate1:Branden Leslie
Popular Vote1:20,250
Percentage1:64.95%
Swing1: 12.43%
Candidate2:Maxime Bernier
Popular Vote2:5,352
Percentage2:17.16%
Swing2: 4.42
Image5:

NDP

Candidate5:Lisa Tessier-Burch
Popular Vote5:2,208
Percentage5:7.08%
Swing5: 6.30%
Image4:

LPC

Candidate4:Kerry Smith
Popular Vote4:2,666
Percentage4:8.55%
Swing4: 2.40%
MP
Posttitle:Elected MP
Before Election:Candice Bergen
After Election:Branden Leslie

A by-election was held in the federal riding of Portage—Lisgar in Manitoba, Canada on June 19, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen.[1]

The by-election was held on the same day as three others; Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, Oxford and Winnipeg South Centre.[2] It resulted in the landslide victory of Conservative Branden Leslie, in what many analysts described as a test for both the Tories and Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada, the latter of which got 21% of the vote in this riding in 2021, their best nationwide.[3] [4] After the by-election, Bernier announced his intentions to run in the riding again in the next federal election, though acknowledging that the result had not been desirable for him.[5]

Background

Constituency

Portage—Lisgar is a large rural constituency in Southern Manitoba. It includes the cities of Portage la Prairie, Winkler, and Morden, and the towns of Carman, Morris and Altona. Lisgar is named after John Young, 1st Baron Lisgar who was Canadas 2nd Governor General from 1869 to 1872. The riding has voted for centre-right parties since its inception in 1997.

Representation

The riding of Portage—Lisgar was vacated on February 28, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen.[6] [7] Bergen, a cabinet minister in the government of Stephen Harper and the interim leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition from February to September 2022, had held the seat since 2008.[8]

Candidates

Conservative

Bergen's former campaign manager Branden Leslie[9] defeated Rejeanne Caron, the party's 2019 candidate in Saint Boniface—Saint Vital and 2021 candidate in Elmwood—Transcona; Winkler resident Don Cruickshank,[10] Morden-Winkler MLA and former Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba cabinet minister Cameron Friesen;[11] and Lawrence Toet, the MP for Elmwood—Transcona from 2011 to 2015 for the Conservative nomination.[12] [13] [14] Liz Reimer, a Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba staffer and former assistant to Friesen, and Josh Okello were previously running for the nomination, however after Friesen announced his campaign they withdrew their bids in order to run for the Progressive Conservative nomination in Morden-Winkler.[15] [16] [17] Laurence Toet was endorsed by the constituency's former MP Charles Mayer.[18]

Others

Maxime Bernier, who is the former MP for Beauce and the current leader of the People's Party of Canada, announced on May 12, 2023, that he would run for the seat.[19] [20] [21]

The Liberals announced Kerry Smith as their candidate on May 13.[22] She is the senior director of the Manitoba Métis Foundation.[23]

The New Democratic Party announced their candidate as teacher Lisa Tessier-Burch.[24]

The Green Party of Manitoba selected Nicolas Geddert, a community organizer and volunteer as their candidate. He was an unsuccessful candidate for leader of the Green Party of Manitoba in early 2023.[25] In 2022, he was the candidate in the Fort Whyte by-election.[26]

Polling

Polling FirmLast Date
of Polling
LinkCPCPPCLPCNDPGPCOthersUndecidedMargin
of Error
Sample
Size
class=unsortable Polling Method
HTML41 26 14 9 4 2 3 ±5.2 pp 362 IVR
4327 15 10 4 2

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2023-02-01 . Candice Bergen, former interim Conservative leader, resigning from Parliament . 2023-02-02 . CTVNews . en.
  2. Web site: 4 federal byelections set for June in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba Globalnews.ca . 2023-05-31 . Global News . en-US.
  3. Web site: Kives . Bartley . June 18, 2023 . Manitoba byelections matter, but not merely in terms of who wins . CBC.
  4. Web site: Portage--Lisgar (Manitoba) . Elections Canada.
  5. Web site: "I will be your PPC candidate in Portage-Lisgar at the next general election," says Bernier in post results remarks . 2024-07-25 . SteinbachOnline.
  6. Web site: 2023-02-01 . Candice Bergen, former interim Conservative leader, is resigning from Parliament . 2023-02-01 . thestar.com . en.
  7. Web site: Profile - Bergen, Candice . March 2, 2023 . Library of Parliament.
  8. Web site: Manitoba's Bergen a logical choice for Conservatives, but not controversy-free: political scientist - Winnipeg Globalnews.ca . 2023-05-31 . Global News . en-US.
  9. Web site: 2023-05-01 . Branden Leslie wins Conservative nomination for Portage-Lisgar . 2023-05-31 . Winnipeg . en.
  10. Web site: Don Cruickshank steps up to start line in race to represent Portage-Lisgar in Ottawa . 2023-02-14 . PembinaValleyOnline.
  11. Web site: 2023-01-27 . 'An opportunity': Manitoba finance minister quits for federal run . 2023-01-29 . Winnipeg . en.
  12. Web site: Sanders . Carol . January 24, 2023 . Former PC staffer plans to take run at Portage-Lisgar seat . January 26, 2023 . The Winnipeg Free Press . en.
  13. Web site: With former Conservative MP Toet entering the nomination contest, field of high-profile candidates in Portage-Lisgar, Man., is growing . 2023-02-04 . The Hill Times . en-CA.
  14. Web site: Branden Leslie wins Conservative nomination for Portage-Lisgar . 2023-05-01 . PembinaValleyOnline.
  15. Web site: Reimer revises political bid, now seeking Morden-Winkler PC nomination . 2023-04-29 . PembinaValleyOnline.
  16. Web site: Kenyan-born candidate brings international perspective to Conservative contest in Portage-Lisgar . 2023-02-22 . PembinaValleyOnline.
  17. Web site: Josh Okello gives up federal aspirations to run for Morden-Winkler MLA . 2023-04-29 . PembinaValleyOnline.
  18. Web site: Long serving MP for Portage-Lisgar endorses Toet for Conservative Nomination . 2023-05-31 . thegraphicleader . en-CA.
  19. Web site: Maxime Bernier will run in the Portage-Lisgar by-election . 2023-05-12 . PembinaValleyOnline.
  20. News: Kitching . Chris . May 10, 2023 . PPC leader 'looking forward to the future' with eye on possible Portage—Lisgar bid . Winnipeg Free Press . May 11, 2023.
  21. News: May 10, 2023 . People's Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier to run in Manitoba byelection . CBC News . May 11, 2023.
  22. https://twitter.com/liberal_party/status/1657553485443870720
  23. Web site: 2023-05-29 . Kerry Smith running as Liberal candidate in Portage-Lisgar byelection . 2023-05-31 . Winnipeg . en.
  24. Web site: PCI Hosts LGBT+ Conference . 2023-05-31 . PortageOnline.
  25. Web site: Manitoba Greens announce slate of leadership candidates - Winnipeg Globalnews.ca . 2023-06-06 . CJOB . en-US.
  26. Web site: Manitoba byelection the first since Heather Stefanson became Tory leader, premier - Winnipeg Globalnews.ca . 2023-06-06 . Global News . en-US.