2024 European Parliament election in Estonia explained

Election Name:2024 European Parliament election in Estonia
Country:Estonia
Type:Parliamentary
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2019 European Parliament election in Estonia
Previous Year:2019
Next Election:2029 European Parliament election in Estonia
Election Date:6–9 June 2024
Turnout:37.66% (0.07pp)
Map Size:380px
Party1:Isamaa
Alliance1:EPP
Last Election1:1 seat, 10.3%
Seats1:2
Seat Change1:1
Popular Vote1:79,170
Percentage1:21.5%
Swing1:11.2pp
Party2:Social Democratic Party (Estonia)
Alliance2:S&D
Last Election2:2 seats, 23.3%
Seats2:2
Popular Vote2:71,171
Percentage2:19.3%
Swing2:4.0pp
Party3:Estonian Reform Party
Alliance3:RE
Last Election3:2 seats, 26.2%
Seats3:1
Seat Change3:1
Popular Vote3:66,017
Percentage3:17.9%
Swing3:8.3pp
Party4:Conservative People's Party of Estonia
Alliance4:ID
Last Election4:1 seat, 12.7%
Seats4:1
Popular Vote4:54,712
Percentage4:14.9%
Swing4:2.2pp
Party5:Estonian Centre Party
Alliance5:RE
Last Election5:1 seat, 14.4%
Seats5:1
Popular Vote5:45,767
Percentage5:12.4%
Swing5:2.0pp

An election for the Members of the European Parliament from Estonia as part of the 2024 European Parliament election took place on 9 June. Early voting took place from 3 June to 8 June.[1] [2] [3]

This was the first election since the 1993 Estonian municipal elections that neither the Reform Party, Centre Party nor the Conservative People's Party of Estonia have placed among the top 2 in terms of vote share. Significant attention was also paid to the vote share of Together, whose only candidate Aivo Peterson is and was in Tallinn Prison throughout the campaign due to an ongoing trial after being charged with treason.[4] [5] [6] [7] His eventual vote share was considered by some to help measure pro-Kremlin attitudes in Estonia.[8]

Background

In March 2023 Estonia held its latest national election, and in that occasion the Reform Party managed to maintain its position as biggest party in parliament, while its leader and incumbent Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was reconfirmed in the office with the support of the Social Democratic Party and Estonia 200.

Reform Party

In recent months the party's performance in opinion polls has suffered significantly from the party's decision to back several tax increases unpopular with the economically liberal voter base as well as due to a scandal involving party leader Kaja Kallas. In August 2023, she came under the international spotlight after it was revealed that her husband held a significant share in a transportation company, Stark Logistics, which continued business with Russia despite Kallas's previous calls for Estonian companies to cease operations in Russia in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[9] Kallas tried to minimise the affair and ignored the calls for her resignation from her political opponents, calling the controversy a "witch-hunt".[10]

At the same time she has appeared in the news as a prominent figure of the Renew Europe group and therefore as one of the frontrunners to be ALDE's Spitzenkandidat for the European Commission's presidency. She has also been linked to the post of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, whose current holder Josep Borrell will retire at the end of this mandate, or to the post of Estonia's European Commissioner, currently held by Kadri Simson (Centre Party).[11] [12] On 7 March 2024, Kallas announced that she rejected the offer from ALDE to be the alliance's Spitzenkandidat.[13]

Incumbent MEP Andrus Ansip is not running for re-election.[14]

Social Democratic Party

Since the 2023 Riigikogu election, the Social Democrats have remained the only party in the government coalition to avoid losing support in polling. This has been attributed to the party members' public statements, especially those of the leader of the party Lauri Läänemets, setting the Social Democrats apart from the two economically liberal parties in the coalition. Moreover, the party gained MPs and members from the defections out of the Centre Party, including seeing its number of MPs increase from 9 to 13.[15] [16]

Centre Party

In September 2023 Mihhail Kõlvart, then-mayor of Tallinn, won Centre Party's leadership election. His victory marked a significant change in the party's direction, choosing to focus more on its Russophone electoral base and shifting to socially conservative and economically syncretic positions, with the party becoming seen as one specifically of the niche Russian minority concentrated in the capital Tallinn and Ida-Viru County.[17] [18] [19] As a result, in the following months the previous party leader Jüri Ratas and several other party members defected to other political forces, leaving Centre Party with one third of its initial parliamentary representation (down to only 6 MPs) and with an increasingly weaker position in the most recent opinion polls.[20] [21] [22]

Isamaa

Since August 2023, Isamaa has seen its support rocket to unprecedented historic highs.[23] [24] These gains in polling are mainly attributed to the party gaining 3 MPs and several other members defecting from the Centre Party, EKRE being seen as too extreme of an option as an alternative to the government coalition and the success of the newly elected party leader, Urmas Reinsalu, in attracting disgruntled Reform Party voters unhappy with its plans to raise taxes.[25] [26] [27]

Electoral system

Compared to last election, Estonia is entitled to one more MEP has already been assigned in 2020 in the occasion of the redistribution post Brexit. The 7 members are elected through open list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency with seats allocated through D'Hondt method and no electoral threshold.[28]

Both Estonian citizens and other non-Estonian EU citizens residing in the country are entitled to vote in the European elections in Estonian. No registration is needed for Estonian citizens, while other EU citizens residing in Estonia are required to register with the National Electoral Committee only if it's their first time voting in the country. Estonian citizens residing abroad can choose between three options to vote: in person in an embassy or consulate, online or by mail, with only the latter procedure requiring registration. In addition, those eligible to vote must turn 18 years old by election day at the latest.[29]

Outgoing delegation

The table shows the detailed composition of the Estonian seats at the European Parliament as of 1 February 2024.

EP GroupSeatsPartySeatsMEPs
Renew EuropeEstonian Reform Party2
Estonian Centre Party1
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and DemocratsSocial Democratic Party2
Identity and Democracy1
European People's Party1
Total7
Source: European Parliament

Contesting parties

Candidates

The National Electoral Committee registered 66 candidates from 9 parties and 5 independents.[30]

Reform Party

  1. Urmas Paet, Member of the European Parliament (2014–present)
  2. Yoko Alender, Member of the Riigikogu (2015–present)
  3. Luukas Kristjan Ilves, Counsellor for Digital Affairs at the Estonia's Permanent Representation to the EU (2014–2018)
  4. Maria Jufereva-Skuratovski, Member of the Riigikogu (2019–present)
  5. Marko Mihkelson, Member of the Riigikogu (2003–present)
  6. Hanah Lahe, Member of the Riigikogu (2023–present)
  7. Karmen Joller, Member of the Riigikogu (2023–present)
  8. Maarja Metstak, Kuusalu Parish councillor (2021–present)
  9. Hanno Pevkur, Minister of Defence (2022–present)

Incumbent MEP Andrus Ansip is not running for re-election.

Social Democratic Party

  1. Marina Kaljurand, Member of the European Parliament (2019–present), independent candidate in the 2016 Estonian presidential election
  2. Sven Mikser, Member of the European Parliament (2019–present)
  3. Katri Raik, Mayor of Narva (2020–2023)
  4. Tanel Kiik, Minister of Health and Labour (2021–2022)
  5. Riina Sikkut, Minister of Health (2023–present)
  6. Ivari Padar, Member of the European Parliament (2009–2014, 2017–2019)
  7. Natalie Mets, Tallinn nightlife advisor (2021–present)
  8. Vootele Päi, advisor to the Minister of the Interior (2022–present)
  9. Jevgeni Ossinovski, Mayor of Tallinn (2024–present)

Centre Party

  1. Mihhail Kõlvart, Mayor of Tallinn (2019–2024)
  2. Andrei Korobeinik, Member of the Riigikogu (2011–2013, 2019–2022, 2023–present)
  3. Erki Savisaar, Member of the Riigikogu (2015–2023)
  4. Anneli Ott, Minister of Culture (2021)
  5. Janek Mäggi, Minister of Public Administration (2018–2019)
  6. Monika Haukanõmm, Member of the Riigikogu (2015–2019)
  7. Aivar Riisalu, Member of the Riigikogu (2007–2015)
  8. Jana Toom, Member of the European Parliament (2014–present)
  9. Lauri Laats, Member of the Riigikogu (2023–present)

Conservative People's Party

  1. Martin Helme, Minister of Finance (2019–2021)
  2. Anti Poolamets, Member of the Riigikogu (2019–present)
  3. Helle-Moonika Helme, Member of the Riigikogu (2019–present)
  4. Henn Põlluaas, Chairman of the Riigikogu (2019–2021)
  5. Siim Pohlak, Member of the Riigikogu (2019–present)
  6. Merle Kivest, Tartu city councillor (2021–present)
  7. Rain Epler, Minister of Environment (2020–2021)
  8. Arvo Aller, Minister of Rural Affairs (2019–2021)
  9. Jaak Madison, Member of the European Parliament (2019–present)

Isamaa

  1. Riho Terras, Member of the European Parliament (2020-present), Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces (2011–2018)
  2. Urmas Reinsalu, Minister of Foreign Affairs (2019–2021, 2022–2023)
  3. Urve Palo, Minister of Entrepreneurship (2015, 2016–2018)
  4. Riina Solman, Minister of Public Administration (2022–2023)
  5. Tõnis Lukas, Minister of Education and Research (1999–2002, 2007–2011, 2022–2023)
  6. Virve Linder, Mayor of Kohtla-Järve (2022–2023)
  7. Üllar Saaremäe, Member of the Riigikogu (2019–2023)
  8. Ahti Kallikorm, entrepreneur
  9. Jüri Ratas, Prime Minister of Estonia (2016–2021)

Estonia 200

  1. Margus Tsahkna, Minister of Foreign Affairs (2023–present)
  2. Kristina Kallas, Minister of Education and Research (2023–present)
  3. Grigore-Kalev Stoicescu, Member of the Riigikogu (2023–present)
  4. Liisa-Ly Pakosta, Member of the Riigikogu (2009–2015, 2023–present)
  5. Igor Taro, Member of the Riigikogu (2023–present)
  6. Irja Lutsar, Member of the Riigikogu (2023–present)
  7. Hendrik Johannes Terras, Member of the Riigikogu (2023–present)
  8. Kadri Tali, Member of the Riigikogu (2023–present)
  9. Indrek Tarand, Member of the European Parliament (2009–2019)

Greens

  1. Evelyn Sepp, Member of the Riigikogu (2001–2011)
  2. Rasmus Lahtvee
  3. Alina Lerner-Vilu
  4. Olev-Andres Tinn
  5. Riin Ehin
  6. Kaia Konsap
  7. Liina Freivald
  8. Tuula Raidna
  9. Marko Kaasik

Parempoolsed

  1. Lavly Perling, state prosecutor general (2014–2019)
  2. Rainer Saks, national security expert
  3. Ilmar Raag, columnist
  4. Annela Anger-Kraavi, climate expert
  5. Marti Aavik, journalist
  6. Eero Raun, entrepreneur
  7. Kadri Kullman, entrepreneur
  8. Andres Kaarmann, vice mayor of Saue Parish (2017–present)
  9. Kristjan Vanaselja, entrepreneur

Together

  1. Aivo Peterson

Others

Party manifestos and slogans

Party!EP Group! colspan="2" class="unsortable"
Slogan and manifesto (external link)Other slogan(s)
Reform PartyREA safe Estonia in Europe[31] (Estonian: Kindel Eesti Euroopas)
Social Democratic PartyS&DFreedom, justice, security.[32] (Estonian: Vabadus, õiglus, julgeolek.)A rock-solid choice![33] (Estonian: Kaljukindel valik!)
Centre PartyREStand tall, Estonia![34] (Estonian: Selg sirgu, Eesti!)
Conservative People's PartyIDFor Estonia in Europe[35] (Estonian: Eesti eest Euroopas)
IsamaaEPPTo the right path![36] (Estonian: Õigele teele!)
Estonia 200Yes-people to Europe[37] (Estonian: Jah-inimesed Euroopasse)
Greens
ParempoolsedLet's defend freedom![38] (Estonian: Kaitseme vabadust!)
Together

Campaign

Controversies

Greens' candidate list

The Greens originally announced a full list of 9 candidates but only paid the fee sufficient enough to register two, leading to the National Electoral Committee to register only two candidates. The party disputed the decision and sued, and as a legal remedy, the Supreme Court required the National Electoral Committee to register all 9 candidates on 14 May 2024.[39] Several other parties expressed surprise and disagreement over the decision due to the Greens effectively being able to register all of its candidates without having paid the fee for 7 of them.[40]

Debates

2024 European Parliament election debates in Estonia
DateOrganisers
ReformSDECentreEKREIsamaaE200EERParempoolsedRefs
25 AprilPostimeesHanah LaheTanel KiikLauri LaatsHelle-Moonika HelmeNIrja LutsarNEero Raun[41]
Eesti TelevisioonPAndrus Ansip
Urmas Paet
PMarina Kaljurand
Sven Mikser
PJana ToomPJaak MadisonPRiho TerrasNNN[42]

PHanah LahePJevgeni OssinovskiPErki SavisaarPRain EplerPJüri RatasPZüleyxa IzmailovaNN[43]

Opinion polling

See also: Opinion polling for the 2024 European Parliament election. The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The seats the result would produce is shown below the result for each party.

Polling executionPartiesLead
PollingfirmFieldworkdateSamplesizeReform
SDE

Centre

EKRE

Isamaa
E200EER G/EFAParemKoosOthersPartyEP group
data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
Norstat8–20 May 20241,47119.1
19.3
11.5
14.2
21.3
3.8
0.9
4.3
2.9
2.7
2.04.6
Kantar Emor6–15 May 20241,47117.2
23.6
11.0
13.6
14.0
4.1
0.9
7.2
3.1
5.4
6.49.3
Norstat29 Apr–6 May 20241,48419.3
21.4
9.4
17.9
17.1
3.9
0.9
4.5
3.0
2.7
2.17.3
Kantar Emor8-17 Apr 20241,48418.8
20
13.8
13.8
16.8
4.7
1.5
6
4.5
1.212.6
Norstat11-15 Apr 20243,50020.1
22.0
11.0
17.2
17.6
5.0
1.2
4.7
1.2
1.99.1
Kantar Emor14-20 Mar 20241,13518.9
21.4
13.9
15.4
16.7
5.6
5.9
2.1
2.511.4
2023 parliamentary election31.2
9.3
15.3
16.1
8.2
13.3
1.0
2.3
3.3
15.130.4
2019 EP election26.2
23.3
14.4
12.7
10.3
3.2
1.8
8.0
2.917.3
European Parliament polling in Estonia is candidate-oriented as opposed to party-oriented due to the short length of the electoral lists.[44] [45]

References

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  2. Web site: Valimised Eestis . 2023-10-06 . www.valimised.ee.
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  11. Web site: Daily: Kaja Kallas faces dilemma ahead of European Parliament election . 16 February 2024 . 27 February 2024 . ERR News.
  12. Web site: Ots . Mait . There are still several turning points on Kallas' road to Brussels . 17 February 2024 . 27 February 2024 . ERR News.
  13. Web site: ERR . 2024-03-07 . Kallas: ma ei hakka ALDE esikandidaadiks Euroopa Parlamendi valimistel . 2024-03-08 . ERR . et.
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  29. Web site: How to vote in Latvia . 13 February 2024 . European Parliament.
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  35. Web site: ERR . 2024-03-23 . Galerii: EKRE esinumber europarlamendi valimistel on Martin Helme . 2024-03-23 . ERR . et.
  36. Web site: ERR . 2024-03-24 . Isamaa eurovalimiste nimekirja esinumber on Terras, ankrumees Ratas . 2024-03-24 . ERR . et.
  37. Web site: ERR . 2024-04-19 . Fotod: Eesti 200 andis üle oma valimisnimekirja . 2024-04-20 . ERR . et.
  38. Web site: Programm . 2024-04-13 . Parempoolsed . et.
  39. Web site: ERR . 2024-05-14 . Riigikohus lubab kõik Roheliste kandidaadid europarlamendi valimistele registreerida . 2024-05-15 . ERR . et.
  40. Web site: 2024-05-15 . Riigikohtu otsus valimiskautsjoni asjus üllatas erakondade esimehi . 2024-05-15 . Postimees . et.
  41. Web site: 2024-04-23 . POSTIMEHE EURODEBATT 2024 ⟩ Kas Euroopa Liit ikka peab õigusriigi teemadel järeleandmisi tegema? . 2024-04-25 . Postimees TV . et.
  42. Web site: ERR . 2024-04-10 . Eurosaadikud: EL peab Ukraina toetamisel ja enda kaitse tugevdamisel julgem olema . 2024-04-10 . ERR . et.
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