See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico |
| Country: | New Mexico |
| Type: | Presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico |
| Previous Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States presidential election in New Mexico |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Joe Biden |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Image1: | Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Kamala Harris |
| Home State1: | California |
| Running Mate1: | Tim Walz |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Donald Trump |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Running Mate2: | JD Vance |
The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Mexico voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A western state in the American Southwest, since gaining statehood, New Mexico has voted for the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election except for 1976 (only backing the losing candidate by 2.47% and 10,271 votes) and in addition to its bellwether status is today a moderately blue state, with Democrats holding all statewide offices since 2019 and Democratic presidential candidates consistently winning the state since 2008. New Mexico's Democratic lean can be largely credited to the state's sizeable Latino population, which in recent years has become a plurality. The state is favored to remain in the Democratic column in 2024.[2]
See main article: 2024 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary. The New Mexico Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
See main article: 2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary. The New Mexico Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
See main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries. The New Mexico Libertarian primary was held on June 6, 2024. 9 days after the 2024 Libertarian National Convention was held.[3]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Mapstead | 432 | 56.5% | |
| None of the Above | 332 | 43.5% | |
| Total: | 764 | 100.0% | |
| Source:[4] | |||
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Cook Political Report[5] | June 12, 2024 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[6] | April 26, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | June 29, 2023 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[8] | December 14, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[9] | August 18, 2024 | |
| align=left | CNN[10] | January 14, 2024 | |
| align=left | The Economist[11] | August 20, 2024 | |
| 538[12] | June 11, 2024 | ||
| RCP[13] | June 26, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Robert Kennedy Jr | Cornel West | Jill Stein | Chase Oliver | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[14] | data-sort-value="2024-08-15" | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | 6% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% | ||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[15] | data-sort-value="2024-08-03" | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 493 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 8% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling (R)[16] | data-sort-value="2023-08-28" | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 5% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[17] | data-sort-value="2023-08-28" | June 13–14, 2024 | 555 (V) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% | ||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[18] | data-sort-value="2023-08-28" | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | 10% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[19] | data-sort-value="2023-05-08" | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 49% | 38% | 13% | ||
| Emerson College[20] | data-sort-value="2022-10-28" | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% | ||
| Emerson College[21] | data-sort-value="2022-09-11" | September 8–11, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver vs. Randall Terry
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden | Ron DeSantis | Other / Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | data-sort-value="2023-08-28" | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% | ||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | data-sort-value="2023-05-08" | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Partisan clients