2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia explained

See main article: 2024 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Country:West Virginia
Type:Presidential
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Previous Year:2020
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Next Election:2028 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Next Year:2028
President
Before Election:Joe Biden
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
Nominee2:Kamala Harris
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:California
Running Mate2:Tim Walz
Image1:Donald Trump 2023 (double cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Florida
Running Mate1:JD Vance

The 2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. West Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of West Virginia has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost one congressional seat.[1]

Despite being a Democratic stronghold for much of the 20th century, West Virginia — as a rural Southern state in the heart of Appalachia and largely within the Bible Belt — has trended dramatically towards the Republican Party in the 21st century. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state was fellow Southerner Bill Clinton, who did so comfortably in both of his 1990s victories. A large factor in West Virginia's rightward trend is the Democratic Party's adoption of more liberal policies – especially environmentalist policies, anathema to the state's coal-dominated economy. Environmentalism was notably embraced by 2000 Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore, also a Southerner, who consequently lost the state by just under six points despite having been vice president under the popular Clinton.

Starting with the 2000 presidential election, West Virginia has seen a mass of counties flip to the GOP at this level, with Republicans consistently carrying the state's electoral votes by double digits since Southerner George W. Bush did so in 2004; and the last Democratic presidential nominee to win at least 40% of the West Virginian vote or carry any county in the state being Barack Obama in 2008. Furthermore, West Virginia was Republican Donald Trump's strongest state in 2016 and his second-strongest state (trading places with Wyoming) in 2020. Nowadays, West Virginia is a deeply red state with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 2021 apart from one U.S. Senate seat, which is expected to flip solidly Republican in a concurrent election.[2] Trump is expected to easily win the state again in 2024.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2024 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary. The West Virginia Democratic presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside the Maryland and Nebraska primaries. 25 delegates (20 pledged and 5 unpledged) to the Democratic National Convention were allocated to presidential candidates.[3]

Four candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:[4]

Republican primary

See main article: 2024 West Virginia Republican presidential primary. The West Virginia Republican presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside the Maryland and Nebraska primaries. 31 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a winner-take-all basis.[5]

Five candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:[4]

Mountain primary

See main article: 2024 Green Party presidential primaries. The Mountain primary (the state's Green Party affiliate) is scheduled to be held on May 14, 2024.

Only one candidate was certified to appear on the primary ballot,[4] who will receive all 4 of the state's pledged delegates:[6]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left Cook Political Report[7] December 19, 2023
align=left Inside Elections[8] April 26, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] June 29, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] December 14, 2023
align=left CNalysis[11] December 30, 2023
align=left CNN[12] January 14, 2024
align=left The Economist[13] June 12, 2024
538[14] June 11, 2024
RCP[15] June 26, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Wang . Hansi . Jin . Connie . Levitt . Zach . Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats . . February 7, 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210819123145/https://www.npr.org/2021/04/26/983082132/census-to-release-1st-results-that-shift-electoral-college-house-seats . August 19, 2021 . April 26, 2021 . live.
  2. Web site: 2024 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin . 2024-07-15 . 270toWin.com.
  3. Web site: West Virginia Democratic Delegation 2024 . 2024-02-04 . www.thegreenpapers.com.
  4. Web site: 2024-02-04 . Who is running for election in West Virginia? . 2024-02-04 . ballotpedia.org.
  5. Web site: October 13, 2023 . West Virginia Republican Presidential Nominating Process. November 18, 2023 . thegreenpapers.com.
  6. Web site: Apportionment of GPUS National Committee 2023 and GPUS Presidential Nominating Convention 2024. GPUS National Committee. February 3, 2024.
  7. Web site: 2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings . December 19, 2023 . cookpolitical.com . . January 11, 2024.
  8. Web site: Presidential Ratings . April 26, 2023 . insideelections.com . . January 11, 2024.
  9. Web site: 2024 Electoral College ratings . June 29, 2023 . centerforpolitics.org . . January 11, 2024.
  10. Web site: 2024 presidential predictions . December 14, 2023 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  11. Web site: 2024 Presidential Forecast . December 30, 2023 . projects.cnalysis.com/ . . January 11, 2024.
  12. Web site: Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270 . . January 14, 2024.
  13. News: Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model . . June 12, 2024 . en.
  14. Web site: Morris . G. Elliott . 2024 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 11, 2024 . en . June 11, 2024.
  15. Web site: 2024 RCP Electoral College Map . RealClearPolitics . June 26, 2024 . en . June 26, 2024.
  16. Web site: West Virginia 2024 Poll: Sen. Manchin Faces Uphill Battle Against Gov. Justice, but Leads Rep. Mooney. Camille. Mumford. October 13, 2023. Emerson Polling.
  17. Web site: Kaplan Strategies.