Election Name: | 2024 Wisconsin State Assembly election |
Country: | Wisconsin |
Type: | legislative |
Ongoing: | yes |
Previous Election: | 2022 Wisconsin State Assembly election |
Previous Year: | 2022 |
Next Election: | 2026 Wisconsin State Assembly election |
Next Year: | 2026 |
Seats For Election: | All 99 seats in the Wisconsin State Assembly |
Election Date: | November 7, 2024 |
Majority Seats: | 50 |
Image1: | Robin Vos speaks at Racine Tea Party event (8378614585).jpg |
Image1 Size: | x150px |
Leader1: | Robin Vos |
Party1: | Republican Party of Wisconsin |
Leaders Seat1: | 33rd –Rochester |
Last Election1: | 64 seats, 53.6% |
Seats Before1: | 64 |
Image2 Size: | x150px |
Leader2: | Greta Neubauer |
Party2: | Democratic Party of Wisconsin |
Leaders Seat2: | 66th–Racine |
Last Election2: | 35 seats, 44.6% |
Seats Before2: | 35 |
Speaker | |
Before Election: | Robin Vos |
Before Party: | Republican Party of Wisconsin |
Seats Needed2: | 15 |
The 2024 Wisconsin State Assembly election is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. All 99 seats in the Wisconsin State Assembly are up for election. Currently, 64 Assembly seats are held by Republicans and 35 seats are held by Democrats.
The primary election was held on August 13, 2024. The filing deadline to appear on the ballot was June 3, 2024.[1]
This election will be significantly affected by the legislative maps drawn as a result of the Wisconsin Supreme Court decision in Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission, which declared the previous legislative district map to be unconstitutional on December 22, 2023. The court was in the process of selecting a remedial plan, when the legislature chose to embrace the map proposed by governor Tony Evers. Evers signed the plan into law on February 19, 2024.[2]
Under the new maps, these are expected to be the first competitive elections for the Assembly since 2010, when Republicans won control of the chamber. Democrats are expected to gain a number of seats, and while the maps are still considered slightly Republican-leaning, either major party could win a majority of seats if they win a majority of the popular vote in the state. Over 40 incumbent representatives have been drawn into districts with one or more other incumbent, with most of them being Republicans.[3] [4]
Democrats last won a majority of seats in the state assembly in the 2008 elections.
As of the first fiscal quarter, the Democratic Party has outraised their Republican counterparts at a rate of fifteen to one. The Democratic Party raised nearly $6 million since the start of 2024, while the Republican Party raised only $399,049 since the start of 2024.[5]
In the 2010 elections, Republicans won significant majorities in both houses of the Legislature and the governorship. Republicans used their majorities to pass a radical redistricting plan after the 2010 census which substantially shifted the partisan bias of the state legislative maps. The map itself was the product of a Republican project known as REDMAP, created to maximize the partisan bias of redistricting by utilizing new statistical and mapping software.[6] In the end, the maps were used for the 2012 elections, which saw Democrats win 52% of the statewide vote in the Assembly. Despite this, Democrats only won 39% of the seats in the chamber going into the 2013-2015 session. This disproportionality would only grow with future elections, with Republicans consistently winning a large majority of seats while the statewide vote would remain relatively close.[7]
During the 105th Wisconsin Legislature (2021–2023), Wisconsin was again under divided government. The Wisconsin Supreme Court re-asserted a role in arbitrating redistricting disputes for the first time in 60 years. The conservative 4–3 majority on the Court chose to take original jurisdiction over the redistricting case at the urging of state Republican leadership, breaking from prior precedent of deference to federal courts.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled in November 2021, in a 4–3 decision on ideological lines, that the standard they would use to draw new maps would be to seek the "least changes" to the existing maps necessary to comply with the new census data.[8] [9] The standard conferred significant partisan advantage to the Republican Party in this map-making process due to the 2011 map's existing partisan tilt. After initially adopting Democratic governor Tony Evers' "least change" proposal, the United States Supreme Court tossed the decision, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court adopted the Republican "least change" proposal.[10]
See also: Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission. In 2022, Republicans won 64% of the seats, three away from a supermajority. The following April, the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election flipped the majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court to a liberal majority for the first time in over 15 years. The day after Janet Protasiewicz was inaugurated, a lawsuit was filed against the 2022 "least change" map.[11]
The Wisconsin Supreme Court released their decision in the case, Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission, on December 22, 2023, declaring the legislative maps unconstitutional in a 4–3 opinion along ideological lines. The court declared that state legislative districts must be composed of "physically adjoining territory" and pointed out that 50 of 99 existing Assembly districts failed that constitutional criteria.[12] The majority decision also declared that the "least changes" methodology used by the court in 2022 for the Johnson v. Wisconsin Elections Commission case was never properly defined and was without legal or constitutional foundation.[13]
The court was in the process of selecting a remedial plan when the legislature chose to pass the map proposed by governor Tony Evers. Evers signed the plan into law on February 19, 2024. Republicans showed the most favorability towards Evers' proposal due to pairing the least incumbents and providing Republicans with the best opportunity to retain a majority in the fall elections.[14]
To combat the threat of PFAS contamination, the Wisconsin legislature included $125 million in the state budget. Despite this, Republicans on the Joint Finance Committee (JFC) have refused to release the funds to be used by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR). On April 9, Evers vetoed a piece of legislation which would have created grants to fight pollution due to PFAS chemicals, in explaining his veto, Evers cited the restrictions the legislation would have placed on the DNR to prosecute polluters. In vetoing the legislation, Evers also continued calling for the release of the $125 million which was set aside in the budget for combatting PFAS contamination.[15] In response to Evers' veto, JFC members said they would hold the funds hostage.
On April 16, Evers called the JFC to session, but its Republican members refused to attend, denying the committee a quorum to do business.[16] In response to this inaction, Wisconsin Democrats launched a six-figures campaign called "No More Games" which served the purpose to pressure and target members of the Committee from competitive districts. Among their targets included Assembly Republicans Mark Born, Jessie Rodriguez, and Shannon Zimmerman, from the 37th, 21st, and 30th districts respectively.[17]
Party (majority caucus shading) | Total | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Republican | ||||
nowrap colspan=2 | Last election (2022) | 35 | 64 | 99 | |
nowrap style="font-size:80%" colspan=2 | Total after last election (2022) | 35 | 64 | 99 | |
nowrap style="font-size:80%" colspan=2 | Total before this election | 35 | 64 | 99 | |
Up for election | 35 | 64 | 99 | ||
of which: | nowrap style="font-size:80%" | Incumbent retiring | 12 | 12 | 24 |
nowrap style="font-size:80%" | Open | 5 | 12 | 17 | |
nowrap style="font-size:80%" | Moving districts | 1 | 9 | 10 | |
nowrap style="font-size:80%" | Vacated | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
nowrap style="font-size:80%" | Unopposed | 11 | 2 | 13 | |
nowrap style="background:#ccc" colspan=2 | This election | ||||
nowrap style="font-size:80%" colspan=2 | Change from last election | ||||
nowrap style="font-size:80%" colspan=2 | Total after this election | ||||
nowrap style="font-size:80%" colspan=2 | Change in total | --> |
Two recall petitions have been filed with the Wisconsin Elections Commission, against Robin Vos (R–Rochester).[28]
In January 2024, Matthew Snorek, a resident of Burlington, filed paperwork to recall Robin Vos. In the paperwork, Snorek gave a list of grievances against Vos, which included insufficient support for former president Donald Trump, refusing to impeach Wisconsin Elections Commission administrator Megan Wolfe, and his refusal to decertify the 2020 presidential election. Many of the people who were involved in the recall campaign were the same people who were involved in the primary challenge against Vos in 2022.[29] On March 10, the recall campaign claimed to have collected over 10,000 signatures, which would be more than enough to trigger a recall election.[30]
The Wisconsin Supreme Court declined to answer the question of what map would be utilized for the recall election, which was in conflict due to Clarke v. Wisconsin Elections Commission. Clarke prohibited the use of the old maps in any future state legislative elections, while the law establishing the new legislative maps would not take effect until the November general election. After a review by the Wisconsin Elections Commission staff, it was found the recall organizers did not collect enough signatures within either set of boundaries to trigger a recall.[31] [32]
Dist. | Incumbent | Recall petition | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Member | Party | First elected | Signatures required | Signatures approved (%) | Status | |
Old 63 | Rep. | 2004 | 6,850 | 4,989 (72.8%) | Recall petition failed to acquire the required amount of signatures. | |
New 33 | 7,195 | 3,053 (42.4%) |
With the failure of the first petition to get the required amount of signatures, Snorek filed a new petition to recall Vos. He argued that Vos was a supporter of the Chinese Communist Party, had refused to help lower prescription drug costs, and derided members of the petition as "whack-jobs, morons and idiots".[33] Wisconsin Elections Commission staff found that the recall petitioners had turned in 6,866 valid signatures, or 16 more signatures than were necessary to trigger a recall, despite the question of what district was to be used remaining unresolved.[34] Despite the staff findings, the Commission itself rejected an additional 188 signatures, leaving the recall without enough signatures to trigger a recall.[35]
In 2018, following Tony Evers' victory over incumbent governor Scott Walker, the legislature met in a joint lame-duck session and passed legislation to limit the powers of the incoming Governor and Attorney General.[36] [37] The move was widely described as a power grab but was upheld by the courts.[38]
Due to the legislative gerrymander, Democrats were unable to gain a majority in the State Assembly.[39] [40] Beginning in 2020, Wisconsin Democrats launched the "Save the Veto initiative" as a means to preserve Governor Evers' veto power by preventing a Republican legislative supermajority.[41] Despite this, Republicans came within three seats of a veto-proof supermajority in the Assembly.[42] Due to the newly competitive legislative maps, Democratic campaign rhetoric has shifted from protecting the governor's veto to winning a majority in the assembly.[43] [44]
Democrats have run over 120 candidates in 97 districts, the highest number in over a decade.[45] This election also has the fewest uncontested districts since 1982.[46]
Due to redistricting, the primary featured a large number races with multiple incumbents. 46 Assembly primaries were contested across the state, the most since 2012. Four incumbent legislators lost their primary elections, most in races against other incumbents, and in many of these races, candidates considered election deniers lost to more moderate candidates despite having received endorsements from former President Donald Trump.[47] [48] Most incumbents with challengers from outside the legislature won their races.[49]
District | [50] | Incumbent | Approved candidates[51] [52] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Member | Party | First elected | Status | ||||||
01 | Joel Kitchens | Republican | 2014 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
02 | Shae Sortwell | Republican | 2018 | Running |
| ||||
John Macco | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent retiring[57] | ||||||
03 | Ron Tusler | Republican | 2016 | Running |
| ||||
Ty Bodden | Republican | 2022 | Incumbent retiring[58] | ||||||
04 | David Steffen | Republican | 2014 | Running |
| ||||
Elijah Behnke | Republican | 2021 | Running for the 6th district | ||||||
05 | Joy Goeben | Republican | 2022 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
06 | Peter Schmidt | Republican | 2022 | Lost renomination | nowrap |
| |||
07 | Daniel Riemer | Democratic | 2012 | Incumbent retiring |
| ||||
Bob Donovan | Republican | 2022 | Running for the 61st district | ||||||
08 | Sylvia Ortiz-Velez | Democratic | 2020 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
09 | --Vacant-- | nowrap |
| ||||||
10 | Darrin Madison | Democratic | 2022 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
11 | --Vacant-- | nowrap |
| ||||||
12 | LaKeshia Myers | Democratic | 2018 | Running for state senate | nowrap | ||||
13 | Tom Michalski | Republican | 2022 | Running |
| ||||
Robyn Vining | Democratic | 2018 | Running | ||||||
14 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
15 | Adam Neylon | Republican | 2013 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
16 | Kalan Haywood | Democratic | 2018 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
17 | Supreme Moore Omokunde | Democratic | 2020 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
18 | Evan Goyke | Democratic | 2012 | Retiring to serve as Milwaukee city attorney | nowrap |
| |||
19 | Ryan Clancy | Democratic | 2022 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
20 | Christine Sinicki | Democratic | 1998 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
21 | Jessie Rodriguez | Republican | 2013 | Running | nowrap | ||||
22 | Paul Melotik | Republican | 2023 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
23 | Deb Andraca | Democratic | 2020 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
24 | Janel Brandtjen | Republican | 2014 | Lost renomination | nowrap | ||||
25 | Paul Tittl | Republican | 2012 | Running |
| ||||
Amy Binsfeld | Republican | 2022 | Running for the 26th district | ||||||
26 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
27 | Terry Katsma | Republican | 2014 | Incumbent retiring | nowrap |
| |||
28 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
29 | Treig Pronschinske | Republican | 2016 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
30 | Shannon Zimmerman | Republican | 2016 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
31 | Ellen Schutt | Republican | 2022 | Incumbent retiring[79] | nowrap |
| |||
32 | Tyler August | Republican | 2010 | Running for the 31st district |
| ||||
Amanda Nedweski | Republican | 2022 | Running | ||||||
33 | Robin Vos | Republican | 2004 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
34 | Rob Swearingen | Republican | 2012 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
35 | Calvin Callahan | Republican | 2020 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
36 | Jeffrey Mursau | Republican | 2004 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
37 | Mark Born | Republican | 2012 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
38 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
39 | Alex Dallman | Republican | 2020 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
40 | Dave Considine | Democratic | 2014 | Incumbent retiring | nowrap |
| |||
41 | Tony Kurtz | Republican | 2018 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
42 | Jon Plumer | Republican | 2018 | Incumbent retiring |
| ||||
William Penterman | Republican | 2021 | Running for the 38th district | ||||||
43 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
44 | Sue Conley | Democratic | 2020 | Incumbent retiring | nowrap |
| |||
45 | Clinton Anderson | Democratic | 2022 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
46 | Melissa Ratcliff | Democratic | 2022 | Running for state senate | nowrap |
| |||
47 | Jimmy Anderson | Democratic | 2016 | Running for state senate | nowrap |
| |||
48 | Samba Baldeh | Democratic | 2020 | Running for state senate | nowrap | ||||
49 | Travis Tranel | Republican | 2010 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
50 | Jenna Jacobson | Democratic | 2022 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
51 | Todd Novak | Republican | 2014 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
52 | Lee Snodgrass | Democratic | 2020 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
53 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
54 | Lori Palmeri | Democratic | 2022 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
55 | Nate Gustafson | Republican | 2022 | Running |
| ||||
Michael Schraa | Republican | 2012 | Lost renomination | ||||||
56 | Dave Murphy | Republican | 2012 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
57 | Kevin David Petersen | Republican | 2006 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
58 | Rick Gundrum | Republican | 2018 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
59 | Robert Brooks | Republican | 2014 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
60 | Jerry L. O'Connor | Republican | 2022 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
61 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
62 | Robert Wittke | Republican | 2018 | Running for the 63rd district | nowrap |
| |||
63 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
64 | Tip McGuire | Democratic | 2019 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
65 | Tod Ohnstad | Democratic | 2012 | Incumbent retiring | nowrap |
| |||
66 | Greta Neubauer | Democratic | 2018 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
67 | David Armstrong | Republican | 2020 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
68 | James W. Edming | Republican | 2014 | Retiring |
| ||||
Rob Summerfield | Republican | 2016 | Running | ||||||
69 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
70 | Nancy VanderMeer | Republican | 2014 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
71 | Katrina Shankland | Democratic | 2012 | Running for U.S. House | nowrap | ||||
72 | Scott Krug | Republican | 2010 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
73 | Angie Sapik | Republican | 2022 | Incumbent retiring | nowrap |
| |||
74 | Chanz Green | Republican | 2022 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
75 | Gae Magnafici | Republican | 2018 | Incumbent retiring | nowrap |
| |||
76 | Francesca Hong | Democratic | 2020 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
77 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
78 | Shelia Stubbs | Democratic | 2018 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
79 | Lisa Subeck | Democratic | 2014 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
80 | Mike Bare | Democratic | 2022 | Running | |||||
Alex Joers | Democratic | 2022 | Running for the 81st district | ||||||
81 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
82 | Scott Allen | Republican | 2014 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
83 | Dave Maxey | Republican | 2022 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
84 | Nik Rettinger | Republican | 2022 | Incumbent retiring[121] |
| ||||
Chuck Wichgers | Republican | 2016 | Running | ||||||
85 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
86 | John Spiros | Republican | 2012 | Running |
| ||||
Donna Rozar | Republican | 2020 | Lost renomination | ||||||
87 | Patrick Snyder | Republican | 2022 | Running for the 85th district | nowrap |
| |||
88 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
89 | None | nowrap | |||||||
90 | Kristina Shelton | Democratic | 2020 | Incumbent retiring | nowrap |
| |||
91 | Jodi Emerson | Democratic | 2018 | Running |
| ||||
Karen Hurd | Republican | 2022 | Running for the 69th district | ||||||
92 | Clint Moses | Republican | 2020 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
93 | Warren Petryk | Republican | 2010 | Incumbent retiring[132] | nowrap | ||||
94 | Steve Doyle | Democratic | 2011 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
95 | Jill Billings | Democratic | 2011 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
96 | Loren Oldenburg | Republican | 2018 | Running | nowrap |
| |||
97 | Cindi Duchow | Republican | 2015 | Running |
| ||||
Scott Johnson | Republican | 2022 | Running for the 43rd district | ||||||
98 | None | nowrap |
| ||||||
99 | Barbara Dittrich | Republican | 2018 | Running | nowrap |
|
Source | Ranking | As of | |
---|---|---|---|
270toWin[143] | July 17, 2024 | ||
CNalysis[144] | Tossup | August 18, 2024 | |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[145] | June 18, 2024 |
Incumbent Republican Peter Schmidt was running for re-election. Previously Schmidt had been subject to controversy due to being censured by the Shawano County GOP and being criminally convicted for abuse of a migrant worker on his farm, and was seen as vulnerable to a primary challenge.[146] [147] Elijah Behnke had been previously drawn into the 4th Assembly district due to redistricting but decided to run in the 6th against Schmidt. In the primary Behnke defeated Schmidt by a 17 point margin and will face Shirley Hinze in the general election.
Incumbent Democrat Ryan Clancy is running for re-election unopposed. In the primary he faced activist Jarrod Anderson. Clancy, one of the two members of the Wisconsin Democrat's Socialist Caucus, faced opposition due to his criticism of the Biden Administration and support for Uncommitted in the presidential primary, positions on the Israel–Hamas war, and his maverick position within the Democratic caucus more generally.[148] [149] This stands in contrast with Anderson, who campaigned as a "pragmatic progressive," that would be more collaborative with the broader Democratic caucus than Clancy. During the campaign, Anderson garnered endorsements from numerous Democrats in the Assembly and Milwaukee political landscape opposed to Clancy's campaign.[150] In the election, Clancy defeated Anderson by 9 points.
Incumbent Republican Janel Brandtjen was running for re-election. She faced Dan Knodl, state senator and former representative for this district in the primary. Brandtjen had previously represented the 22nd district prior to redistricting and had run against Knodl in the 2023 special election for the 8th Senate district. Brandtjen has been subject to controversy due to her combative relationship with the Republican Caucus and repeated attempts to decertify Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 United States presidential election. Due to her controversies she was barred from attending Assembly Republican closed caucus meetings in November 2022.[151] Additionally, she was charged with a felony by ther Wisconsin Ethics Commission for an alleged plot to skirt campaign finance laws, though these charges were eventually dropped.[152] In May 2024 Brandtjen was endorsed by Donald Trump.[153] Knodl, having originally represented this district from 2009 to 2023, claimed a desire to run again to give the assembly "a conservative who is respected by his colleagues," as Brandtjen had been barred from closed caucus meetings due to a lack of trust. Knodl also ran again as to avoid a primary in the Senate with colleague Duey Stroebel.[154] [155] In the election, Knodl defeated Brandtjen by a 30 point margin, and will face William Walter, head of Our Wisconsin Revolution, in the general election.
Incumbent Republican Chanz Green is running for re-election. He faced and defeated Scott Harbridge, a veteran from Radisson in the primary election. Prior to redistricting, the town of Summit, Wisconsin was placed within the 73rd assembly district, but it was moved into the 74th assembly district. On the day of the primary, county officials learned that ballots contained candidates for the 73rd, and not the 74th, district. Under current Wisconsin law, there is no procedure to handle votes cast for a different district's candidates, and it is up to the discretion of local officials to decide a course of action. Harbridge has called for a new primary election in the 74th district as a result of the error, but Green is set to advance to the general election.[156] [157]