Opinion polling for the 2010 Philippine Senate election explained

Post-filing

Note: Tables only include confirmed candidates by the COMELEC.The following are results of surveys taken after candidates were confirmed by the COMELEC.

width=9% Poll source !width=10% Date(s) administered !width=5% Sample
size !
width=6% Margin of
error !
Candidates
SWSMay 2–3, 2010 2,400 ±2% Revilla
51%
Estrada
50%
Defensor
Santiago

45%
Drilon
39%
Enrile
36%
Cayetano
34%
Marcos
31%
Sotto
30%
Recto
29%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
29%
Lapid
26%
Guingona
22%
Pulse Asia[1] [2] Apr. 23–25, 2010 1,800 ±2% Revilla
52.8%
Estrada
50%
Defensor
Santiago

47.9%
Enrile
40.6%
Drilon
38.4%
Cayetano
38.1%
Sotto
32.3%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
32.2%
Recto
30.1%
Marcos
27.7%
Guingona
23%
Lapid
21%
SWS[3] Apr. 16–19, 2010 2,100 ±2% Revilla
54%
Estrada
53%
Defensor
Santiago

44%
Enrile
36%
Cayetano
36%
Drilon
36%
Sotto
35%
Recto
30%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
29%
Marcos
28%
Lapid
27%
Remulla
21%
SWS[4] Mar. 19–22, 2010 2,100 ±2% Revilla
53%
Estrada
52%
Defensor
Santiago

44%
Cayetano
42%
Drilon
36%
Enrile
35%
Sotto
33%
Recto
30%
Marcos
30%
Lapid
29%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
26%
Remulla
25%
The Center [5] Feb. 24–28, 2010 2,400 ±2% Revilla
49%
Defensor
Santiago

47%
Estrada
45%
Cayetano
44%
Recto
44%
Sotto
39%
Marcos
39%
Lapid
35%
Enrile
35%
Drilon
33%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
31%
Guingona
28%
SWS[6] Feb. 24–28, 2010 2,100 ±2% Revilla
54%
Cayetano
51%
Estrada
47%
Defensor
Santiago

46%
Drilon
45%
Recto
41%
Enrile
40%
Sotto
39%
Marcos
32%
Lapid
31%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
31%
Pimentel
27%
Pulse Asia[7] Feb. 21–25, 2010 1,800 ±2% Revilla
53.6%
Estrada
52.6%
Defensor
Santiago

49.4%
Cayetano
45.4%
Drilon
45%
Enrile
43.8%
Sotto
33.2%
Recto
33.1%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
29.1%
Marcos
28.2%
Lapid
25.8%
Guingona
24.3%
Pulse Asia[8] Jan. 22–26, 2010 1,800 ±2% Revilla
51.9%
Estrada
50.4%
Cayetano
46.8%
Drilon
43.2%
Defensor
Santiago

41.2%
Enrile
39.7%
Recto
34.4%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
31.6%
Sotto
30.5%
Lapid
29.7%
Marcos
26.3%
de
Venecia

24.0%
SWS[9] Jan. 21–24, 2010 2,100 ±2% Revilla
58.0%
Cayetano
57.0%
Estrada
57.0%
Defensor
Santiago

50.0%
Drilon
47.0%
Enrile
42.0%
Sotto
41.0%
Recto
40.0%
Marcos
39.0%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
38.0%
Guingona
31.0%
de
Venecia

30.0%
Pulse Asia[10] Dec. 8–10, 2009 1,800 ±2.0% Estrada
55.1%
Revilla
52.7%
Defensor
Santiago

51.4%
Drilon
48.4%
Cayetano
43.1%
Recto
43.1%
Enrile
42.7%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
40.2%
Sotto
40.2%
Marcos
31.0%
Guingona
28.5%
de
Venecia

24.3%
SWSDec. 5–10, 2009 2,100 ±2.2% Defensor
Santiago

55.0%
Revilla
54.0%
Estrada
53.0%
Cayetano
48.0%
Drilon
47.0%
Recto
44.0%
Sotto
40.0%
Enrile
37.0%
Marcos
32.0%
bgcolor=silverOsmeña
31.0%
Guingona
24.0%
Lapid
23.0%

Graph

The result of each candidate's opinion poll (survey) result is denoted by a plot point, or a "period" (per.). The lines denote moving averages (mov. avg.) of the last three polls (each poll given equal weight) for each candidate; as pollsters may use different methodologies, it is invalid to plot each period from all pollsters as if it is a single series. Hence, a moving average is used to link all polls from all pollsters into one series. Some candidates may not appear on some polls, and these do not include candidates who are not on the final list but were included in other polls. The twelfth ranking candidate in each poll is denoted by a line, for easy reference.

Notes and References

  1. News: Pulse Asia's April 2010 Filipinos' Senatorial and Party-List Group Preferences for the May 2010 Elections. 2010-04-30. 2010-04-30. pulseasia.com.ph. https://web.archive.org/web/20100609204616/http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=717. 2010-06-09. dead.
  2. News: Baraquel, Querubin umangat: Revilla, Estrada nanguna sa survey sa Senado. 2010-05-03 . 2010-04-30 . gmanews.tv.
  3. News: Eleven out of Magic 12 slots all but in the bag?. 2010-04-25. 2010-04-26. bworldonline.com. https://web.archive.org/web/20150923221520/http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=9815. 2015-09-23. dead.
  4. News: Nine consistently in Magic 12. 2010-03-29. 2010-03-29. bworld.com.ph. https://archive.today/20100524072932/http://www.bworld.com.ph/main/content.php?id=8471. 2010-05-24. dead.
  5. News: Re-electionists dominate The Center's senatorial survey. 2010-03-24 . 2010-03-29 . gmanews.tv.
  6. Web site: Archived copy . . 2010-07-24 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150923221517/http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=7378 . 2015-09-23 . dead .
  7. News: Revilla, Estrada lead senatorial race in Pulse survey, Miriam among top gainers . 2010-03-09 . 2010-03-09 . gmanews.tv.
  8. News: Revilla, Estrada top senatorial bets in Pulse Asia's survey . 2010-02-05 . 2010-02-05 . gmanews.tv.
  9. News: Revilla takes top spot in Senate race . 2010-02-01 . 2010-02-01 . bworldonline.com . https://web.archive.org/web/20150923221515/http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=5520 . 2015-09-23 . dead .
  10. News: Pulse Asia's December 2009 Pre-election Survey . 2010-07-24 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100616222308/http://pulseasia.com.ph/resources/photos/table8a_PESSMS_0912.gif . 2010-06-16 . dead .