Opinion polling for the next Polish parliamentary election explained

In the run up to the next Polish parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 15 October 2023, to the day of the next election.

To be represented in parliament electoral committees which are registered as political parties must reach an electoral threshold of 5% and those registered as coalitions must reach 8%.[1]

Pollster bias

The following table displays the pollsters which have alleged funding and links to the political parties:

!Pollster!Alleged bias!Source
Research PartnerThe company has strong ties to the Law and Justice party, and has consistently overestimated its support in past elections above the standard deviation of polling.[2] [3]
CBOSThe institute is under the supervision of the Prime Minister of Poland, and is partially funded from the state budget. As such, it has been accused of greatly underestimating parties belonging to the opposition at any given moment for about the past 20 years.[4] [5]

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

2024

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
United RightCivic CoalitionThird WayThe LeftConfederationThere is One PolandNonpartisan Local Government ActivistsOthers Don't knowLead
data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;"
Pollster / "SE.pl"8 Aug1,00131.6231.4810.069.1313.953.760.14
30.4131.1610.479.0314.434.500.75
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-08-08" 5–8 Aug1,00027.833.911.48.212.41.44.96.1
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-07-28" 26–28 Jul1,10028.333.010.99.99.61.96.44.7
IBRiS / Onetdata-sort-value="2024-07-25" 24–25 Jul1,10029.032.110.58.711.90.47.43.1
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-07-22" 19–22 Jul1,04028.930.78.68.312.02.51.27.81.8
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-07-11" 8–11 Jul1,000283191112093
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-07-11" 8–11 Jul1,00027.131.411.69.013.82.44.64.3
Pollster / "SE.pl"data-sort-value="2024-07-09" 8–9 Jul1,02833.3135.069.219.013.300.211.75
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-07-08" 5–8 Jul1,00027.231.29.07.711.00.013.94.0
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-07-03" 1–3 Jul1,0002831108140103
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-06-27" 24–27 Jun1,000303211911162
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-06-23" 21–23 Jun1,00033.734.410.86.211.90.52.50.7
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2024-06-22" 21–22 Jun1,06732.734.09.26.310.80.46.61.3
IBRiS / Onetdata-sort-value="2024-06-19" 18–19 Jun1,10032.133.88.76.99.00.39.21.7
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-06-11" 10–11 Jun1,00128.833.27.68.111.50.63.50.76.24.4
European Parliament election9 Jun11,761,99436.1637.066.916.3012.080.930.560.90
IBRiSdata-sort-value="2024-06-03" 3 Jun1,06731.333.111.68.29.00.26.61.8
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-05-29" 27–28 May1,00129.829.711.28.311.61.03.60.54.30.1
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2024-05-24" 23–24 May1,06830.331.812.78.97.009.31.5
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-05-23" 20–23 May1,0003030999113Tie
Pollster / "SE.pl"data-sort-value="2024-05-19" 19 May1,03132.4932.1510.879.339.463.162.540.34
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-05-14" 13–14 May1,00030.132.513.37.012.11.73.32.4
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-05-13" 10–13 May1,05131.529.711.49.19.11.50.57.21.8
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-05-12" 10–12 May1,00033.332.011.69.09.80.14.21.3
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-04-26" 22–26 Apr1,0002628117142122
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-04-21" 19–21 Apr1,00032.132.612.18.67.67.00.5
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2024-04-20" 19–20 Apr1,07131.428.913.58.88.23.75.72.5
Pollster / "SE.pl"data-sort-value="2024-04-19" 18–19 Apr1,07432.7732.3111.179.239.641.752.890.240.4
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-04-11" 8–11 Apr1,00023351051421112
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-04-09" 8–9 Apr1,00026.433.811.86.68.52.04.50.65.87.4
Local elections7 Apr14,417,06534.2730.5914.256.327.233.014.333.68
OGBdata-sort-value="2024-04-05" 3–5 Apr1,00034.7533.3413.024.4710.381.762.281.41
IBRiS / Onetdata-sort-value="2024-04-04" 4 Apr1,06829.030.511.89.58.41.98.91.5
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-04-03" 2-3 Apr29.136.014.78.310.41.56.9
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2024-03-23" 22–23 Mar1,06730.031.910.79.58.69.31.9
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-03-22" 18–22 Mar1,000242998131175
Pollster / "SE.pl"data-sort-value="2024-03-17" 16–17 Mar1,07232.02 30.8113.579.199.881.342.790.401.21
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-03-11" 8–11 Mar1,08829.130.29.08.58.02.412.81.1
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-03-07" 6–7 Mar1,00024.632.814.29.310.11.32.30.74.78.2
CBOS data-sort-value="2024-03-07" 4–7 Mar1,0002329129112136
CBM Indicator / DoRzeczy.pldata-sort-value="2024-03-06" 1–6 Mar1,001273215101065
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FMdata-sort-value="2024-02-26" 22–26 Feb1,00030 291361223141
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-02-25" 23–25 Feb1,00028.232.615.28.59.11.15.34.4
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2024-02-24" 23–24 Feb1,07130.132.614.78.77.66.32.5
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-02-22" 19–22 Feb1,0002229157112147
Pollster / TVPdata-sort-value="2024-02-16" 15–16 Feb1,03430.8531.1717.078.208.062.231.740.680.32
IBSP / Stan Politykidata-sort-value="2024-02-15" 12–15 Feb1,00032.9834.2015.254.899.360.792.531.22
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-02-15" 12–15 Feb1,0002429118112155
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-02-12" 9–12 Feb1,08130.129.813.69.36.81.61.17.70.3
Pollster / "SE.pl"data-sort-value="2024-02-11" 11 Feb1,06030.3132.3214.789.018.771.791.941.082.01
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-02-11" 10–11 Feb1,00029.031.715.310.28.00.05.82.7
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-02-07" 6–7 Feb1,00124.031.016.89.18.72.21.51.15.77.0
31 Jan President Andrzej Duda sends budget to the Constitutional Tribunal
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-01-28" 26–28 Jan1,00028.328.218.99.67.61.06.40.1
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-01-26" 22–26 Jan1,000242914911595
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-01-22" 19–22 Jan1,11930.330.113.510.16.72.21.16.00.2
Pollster / "SE.pl"data-sort-value="2024-01-14" 13–14 Jan1,04832.7831.6916.797.857.891.501.280.221.09
United Surveys / "WP.pl"data-sort-value="2024-01-14" 12–14 Jan1,00028.427.516.910.46.81.58.50.9
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2024-01-13" 12–13 Jan1,06733.930.216.99.36.30.52.93.7
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-01-12" 8–12 Jan1,000292910710412Tie
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-01-09" 8–9 Jan1,00226.324.317.39.410.90.91.70.38.92.0
IBRiS / Onetdata-sort-value="2024-01-08" 5–8 Jan1,00034.232.014.18.85.00.95.02.2
2023 parliamentary election [6] data-sort-value="2023-10-15" 15 Oct21,596,67435.3830.7014.408.617.161.631.860.224.68

2023

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
United RightCivic CoalitionThird WayThe LeftConfederationNonpartisan Local Government ActivistsThere is One PolandOthers Don't knowLead
data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;"
Pollster / SE.pldata-sort-value="2023-12-17" 17 Dec1,03333.1531.2816.958.376.731.461.740.321.87
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2023-12-17" 15–17 Dec1,00033.028.419.18.77.70.82.34.6
CBOSdata-sort-value="2023-12-08" 2–8 Dec1,000302513993125
IPSOS / More in Common Polskadata-sort-value="2023-12-08" 1–8 Dec1,507312615107355
Opinia24data-sort-value="2023-12-06" 5–6 Dec29.224.717.38.08.01.71.20.39.64.5
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2023-12-03" 1–3 Dec1,00035.228.816.010.07.72.36.4
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2023-12-02" 1–2 Dec1,07131.527.017.69.39.01.83.84.5
CBOSdata-sort-value="2023-11-24" 20–24 Nov821292413885135
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2023-11-19" 17–19 Nov1,00031.326.714.410.49.12.25.94.6
Social Changes / wPolityce.pldata-sort-value="2023-11-13" 10–13 Nov1,08133321499211
Pollster / SE.pldata-sort-value="2023-11-08" 7–8 Nov1,01435.3430.7716.686.907.011.361.750.194.57
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2023-11-05" 3–5 Nov1,00033.230.416.18.56.00.35.52.8
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2023-11-05" 3–5 Nov1,07132.629.215.49.17.01.15.63.4
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2023-10-22" 20–22 Oct1,00032.829.918.75.46.53.53.22.9
Parliamentary election [7] data-sort-value="2023-10-15" 15 Oct21,596,67435.3830.7014.408.617.161.861.630.224.68

Seat projection

231 seats are needed for a Sejm majority, while 276 seats are needed for a three-fifths Sejm supermajority to override presidential vetoes. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/LinkFieldwork
Period
Sample SizeUnited RightCivic CoalitionThird WayThe LeftConfederationGerman MinorityMajority+++
data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;"
Pollster / "SE.pl" data-sort-value="2024-07-28" 8 Aug1,0001721594228590Hung–30–2
Opinia.pl data-sort-value="2024-07-28" 5–8 Aug1,0001511824725550Hung–148
United Surveys / WP.pl data-sort-value="2024-07-28" 26–28 Jul 20241,0001531834640380Hung–139
IBRiS / Onetdata-sort-value="2024-07-25" 24–25 Jul 20241,1001651694528530Hung–1612
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-07-22" 19–22 Jul 20241,0401741683428560Hung–280
IBRiS / Onetdata-sort-value="2024-06-19" 18–19 Jun 20241,1001861833320380Hung–146
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-07-12" 8–11 Jul 20241,0001561663746550Hung–2838
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-07-12" 8–11 Jul 20241,0001491664930660Hung–1630
IBRiSdata-sort-value="2024-06-03" 3 Jun 20241,0671791744825340Hung–817
IBRiS / "Rzdata-sort-value="2024-04-21" 23–24 May1,068177 1715933200Hung–166
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-04-21" 20–23 May1,031182 1643837390Hung–2918
Pollster / "SE.pl"data-sort-value="2024-04-21" 19 May1,031182 1634433380Hung–2420
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-05-14" 13–14 May1,0001681636018510Hung–711
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-05-13" 10–13 May1,0511801565133391Hung–2310
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-04-21" 10–12 May1,000184 1624727400Hung–2212
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-04-21" 22–26 Apr1,000158 1585122710Hung–222
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-04-21" 19-21 Apr 20241,0001731765332250Hung–131
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 22–23 Mar 1,0671821506330350Hung–1828
Pollster / "SE.pl"data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 18–19 Apr 1,0741821654528400Hung–2116
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-01-08" 8–11 Apr 1,000139204445680Hung1746
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 8–9 Apr 1,0001561915619380Hung1972
OGBdata-sort-value="2024-04-05" 3–5 Apr 20241,000189175530421Hung–2–2
IBRiS / Onetdata-sort-value="2024-04-04" 4 Apr 20241,0681651755238300Hung–335
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 2-3 Apr 1501826423410Hung1578
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 22–23 Mar 1,0671751674537360Hung–1938
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-01-08" 18–22 Mar 1,0001471694432680Hung–1830
Pollster / "SE.pl"data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 16–17 Mar 1,0721781536029400Hung–1824
IBSP / Stan Politykidata-sort-value="2024-03-11" 11 Mar 20241,000166 1667517360Hung1128
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-03-11" 8–11 Mar 20241,088180 1704235330Hung–1817
Opinia24 data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 6–7 Mar1,0001411746736430Hung1094
CBOS data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 4–7 Mar1,0001411686137530Hung–172
CBM Indicator / DoRzeczy.pl data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 1–6 Mar1,0011461627140410Hung386
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FMdata-sort-value="2024-02-26" 22–26 Feb 20241,000176 1576312520Hung–102
United Surveys / WP.pl data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 23–25 Feb 1,0001531727325370Hung1480
IBRiS / "Rz" data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 23–24 Feb 1,0711691657128270Hung568
CBOS data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 19–22 Feb 1,0001351668123550Hung1080
Pollster / TVPdata-sort-value="2024-02-16" 15–16 Feb 20241,0341691568026290Hung632
IBSP / Stan Politykidata-sort-value="2024-02-15" 12–15 Feb 20241,000178173690391Hung12 12
CBOS data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 12–15 Feb 1,0001491725529550Hung–452
Research Partner data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 9–12 Feb 1,0001761606636220Hung–564
Pollster / "SE.pl"data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 11 Feb1,0001651616831350Hung–260
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-01-08" 10–11 Feb1,0001571617241290Hung388
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 6–7 Feb1,0011361688534370Hung22114
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-01-08" 22–26 Jan 1,0001401617136520Hung276
United Surveys / WP.pldata-sort-value="2024-01-08" 26–28 Jan 1,0001571449637260Hung994
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-02-12" 9–12 Feb 20241,0811761596640191Hung–535
United Surveys / "WP.pl"data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 12–14 Jan 1,0021671518044180Hung190
IBRiS / "Rz"data-sort-value="2024-01-13" 12–13 Jan 20241,0001771557834160Hung337
CBOSdata-sort-value="2024-01-08" 8–12 Jan1,0021821674522440Hung–198
Opinia24data-sort-value="2024-01-08" 8–9 Jan1,0021481299538500Hung–764
IBRiS / Onetdata-sort-value="2024-01-08" 5–8 Jan 20241,000194166672940Hung332
Parliamentary electiondata-sort-value="2023-10-15" 15 Oct 202321,596,674 1941576526180Hung–818

Senate Seat projection

51 seats are needed for a Senate majority, while 374 seats are needed for a two-thirds National Assembly (Senate + Sejm) supermajority to impeach the president. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/LinkFieldwork
Period
Sample SizeSenate PactUnited RightConfederationMajority
Civic CoalitionPolish CoalitionPoland 2050The LeftSP Ind
data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;" data-sort-type="number" style="height:1px; background:;"
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-07-22" 19–22 Jul 20241,0407030020
Research Partnerdata-sort-value="2024-02-12" 9–12 Feb 20241,0817426024
Parliamentary electiondata-sort-value="2023-10-15" 15 Oct 202321,402,998 66 34016

Government approval ratings

President Andrzej Duda

Date(s)
conducted
Polling firm/LinkSample sizeApproveDisapproveDon't know/NeutralNet approval
data-sort-value="2024-09-25" 24-25 Jul 2024IBRiS / Onet1,10040.310.5–8.8
data-sort-value="2024-07-14" 4–14 Jul 2024CBOS1,0766Tie
data-sort-value="2024-06-02" 20 May–2 Jun 2024CBOS1,038429–7
data-sort-value="2024-04-23" 22–23 Apr 2024IBRiS / Onet44.59.8–0.8
data-sort-value="2024-04-18" 8–18 Apr 2024CBOS1,079447–5
data-sort-value="2024-03-23" 22–23 Mar 2024IBRiS / Onet39.78.9–11.7
data-sort-value="2024-03-17" 7–17 Mar 2024CBOS1,089391111
data-sort-value="2024-02-18" 8–18 Feb 2024CBOS9944411–1
data-sort-value="2024-02-24" 23–24 Feb 2024IBRiS / Onet1,10040.98.5–9.7
data-sort-value="2024-02-18" 8–18 Feb 2024CBOS99440–12
data-sort-value="2024-01-21" 11–21 Jan 2024CBOS1,015424
data-sort-value="2024-01-21" 11–21 Jan 2024CBOS1,015438–6

Prime Minister Donald Tusk

Date(s)
conducted
Polling firm/LinkSample sizeApproveDisapproveNeitherDon't know/NeutralNet approval
data-sort-value="2024-06-29" 24-25 Jul 2024IBRiS / Onet1,10042.414.60.5
data-sort-value="2024-06-09" 7–9 Jun 2024United Surveys / DGP, RMF1,00032.532.20.92.0
data-sort-value="2024-04-23" 22–23 Apr 2024IBRiS / Onet45.05.7–4.0
data-sort-value="2024-04-18" 8–18 Apr 2024CBOS1,0794111–7
data-sort-value="2024-03-23" 22–23 Mar 2024IBRiS / Onet39.29.3–12.2
data-sort-value="2024-03-17" 7–17 Mar 2024CBOS1,08943131
data-sort-value="2024-02-18" 8–18 Feb 2024CBOS99441135
data-sort-value="2024-02-24" 23–24 Feb 2024IBRiS / Onet1,10037.616.4–8.4
30 Jan –5 Feb 2024CBOS9944310–4
Morning Consult3814

Government

Date(s)
conducted
Polling firm/LinkSample sizeApproveDisapproveNeitherDon't knowNet approvalNotes
data-sort-value="2024-05-12" 10–12 May 2024United Surveys / WP.pl1,00046.23.73.9Tusk's government
data-sort-value="2024-04-18" 8–18 Apr 2024CBOS1,07935253–2Tusk's government
data-sort-value="2024-03-17" 7–17 Mar 2024CBOS1,08937223–1Tusk's government
data-sort-value="2024-02-18" 8–18 Feb 2024CBOS994342237Tusk's government
data-sort-value="2024-01-14" 12–14 Jan 2024United Surveys / WP.pl1,00040.35.214.2Tusk's government
data-sort-value="2024-01-13" 12–13 Jan 2024IBRIS / RZ1,06736.96.819.4Tusk's government

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Sejm of the Republic of Poland . 2023-10-25 . www.sejm.gov.pl.
  2. Web site: Test .
  3. Web site: Test .
  4. https://niepewnesondaze.blogspot.com/
  5. Web site: Test .
  6. Web site: Wybory do Sejmu i Senatu Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w 2023 r. . 2023-10-25 . wybory.gov.pl . pl.
  7. Web site: Wybory do Sejmu i Senatu Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w 2023 r. . 2023-10-25 . wybory.gov.pl . pl.