2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election
Country:Kentucky
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2003 Kentucky gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2003
Next Election:2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election
Next Year:2011
Election Date:November 6, 2007
Turnout:37.1% 2.9 pp
Image1:File:Steve Beshear by Gage Skidmore (1).jpg
Nominee1:Steve Beshear
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:619,552
Percentage1:58.71%
Running Mate1:Daniel Mongiardo
Nominee2:Ernie Fletcher
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:435,773
Percentage2:41.29%
Running Mate2:Robbie Rudolph
Governor
Before Election:Ernie Fletcher
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Steve Beshear
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2007. In this election, incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher ran for reelection to a second term, but was soundly defeated by Democratic challenger Steve Beshear. A primary election to determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor was held on May 22, 2007, in which Fletcher and Beshear won their respective primaries.[1] Steve Beshear's son Andy was elected Kentucky's State Attorney General in 2015 [2] and Kentucky's Governor in 2019 and 2023.

Background

Fletcher came under increasing criticism from both parties after his involvement in a state employee hiring controversy, in which he was accused of illegally hiring merit system (civil service) employees for their political affiliations and loyalties. An investigation by Greg Stumbo, the Attorney General of Kentucky, and a special grand jury led to the indictment of 13 Fletcher administration officials. Fletcher issued a blanket pardon for anyone in his administration (other than himself) who was or may have been involved in the scandal. Fletcher himself was later indicted by a grand jury for three misdemeanors: conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination. All were related to the merit-system investigation. On August 24, 2006, Fletcher reached a deal with Stumbo that led to the dismissal of the charges in exchange for Fletcher's acknowledgment that "the evidence strongly indicates wrongdoing by his administration with regard to personnel actions within the merit system. Further, the governor hereby states that these actions were inappropriate and that he regrets their occurrence and accepts responsibility for them as head of the executive branch of state government." (See Ernie Fletcher: Merit system investigation) Fletcher's approval rating as of May 11, 2007 was at 38%,[3] putting him among the lowest governors in the nation.

Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, who had lost reelection in 2006, and Paducah businessman Billy Harper challenged Fletcher in the Republican primary. Both had supported and worked for Fletcher's 2003 campaign. Despite his troubles, Fletcher was able to fend off the primary challenge, winning just over a majority of the vote (see below).

On the Democratic side, an increasingly competitive primary campaign developed. Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford spent over five million dollars, most of it being his own money, in the campaign, and picked Stumbo as his running mate for lieutenant governor. On May 7, Kentucky State Treasurer Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race and endorsed former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford, Beshear, state House Speaker Jody Richards, and former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry consistently polled significantly ahead of the other candidates. Given the crowded field, many believed a runoff election was likely between the top two finishers — which polls suggested would be Beshear and Lunsford — if no candidate was able to obtain at least 40% of the vote. Beshear, however, was able to avoid a runoff with 41% (see below).

Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

SourceDate Steve
Beshear
Gatewood
Galbraith
Steve
Henry
Otis
Hensley
Bruce
Lunsford
Jody
Richards
Jonathan
Miller
align=left Survey USAMay 18–20, 200732%7%17%1%23%12%N/A
align=left Penn, Schoen and BerlandMay 16–17, 200726%N/A13%N/A22%12%N/A
align=left GarinHartYang Research May 14–15, 200735%N/A13%N/A23%12%N/A
align=left Survey USAMay 12–14, 200732%5%18%1%23%12%N/A
align=left Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollMay 10–14, 200727%4%13%1%21%7%N/A
align=left Survey USAApril 28–30, 200723%6%18%1%29%9%7%
align=left Mellman GroupApril 19–22, 200715%N/A24%N/A16%9%20%
align=left Survey USAMarch 31 – April 2, 200715%8%20%1%20%12%8%
align=left Survey USAMarch 3–5, 200715%6%26%2%7%13%8%
align=left GarinHartYang ResearchFebruary 20–22, 200721%N/A21%N/A8%16%8%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

SourceDate Ernie
Fletcher
Billy
Harper
Anne
Northup
align=left Survey USAMay 18–20, 200744%17%34%
align=left Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollMay 10–15, 200741%10%26%
align=left Survey USAMay 12–14, 200744%14%34%
align=left Survey USAApril 28–30, 200746%14%34%
align=left Survey USAMarch 31 – April 2, 200740%16%31%
align=left Survey USAMarch 3–5, 200733%13%31%
align=left Public Opinion Strategies[4] January 28–29, 200739%10%39%

Results

General election

Polling

SourceDate Steve
Beshear (D)
Ernie
Fletcher (R)
align=left Survey USANovember 2–4, 200759%39%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsNovember 1, 200754%39%
align=left Survey USAOctober 27–29, 200760%36%
align=left Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollOctober 26–29, 200756%33%
align=left Research 2000October 22–24, 200755%40%
align=left Survey USAOctober 19–21, 200758%38%
align=left Survey USAOctober 8–9, 200756%40%
align=left Insider AdvantageSeptember 24–25, 200745%35%
align=left Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollSeptember 13–18, 200755%35%
align=left Preston-OsborneSeptember 13–17, 200751%36%
align=left Research 2000September 10–13, 200756%39%
align=left Survey USASeptember 8–10, 200758%39%
align=left Survey USAAugust 4–6, 200758%37%
align=left Preston-OsborneJuly 25 – August 2, 200749%31%
align=left Survey USAJuly 14–16, 200759%36%
align=left Insider AdvantageJuly 8–9, 200741%38%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsMay 24–25, 200751%35%
align=left Survey USAMay 23–24, 200762%34%

Results

Fletcher conceded to Beshear at 9:00 PM on November 6.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

External links

Candidates
Information

Notes and References

  1. http://www.lex18.com/Global/story.asp?S=6554860&nav=EQlp LEX18 - Lexington, KY - News, Weather, Sports - Fletcher, Beshear To Face Off In Nov
  2. Web site: 2015-11-10 . Democratic Attorney General-elect Andy Beshear pledges cooperation with Republican Governor . 2024-01-07 . WDRB . en.
  3. Web site: SurveyUSA News Poll #12133 . Surveyusa.com . 2012-08-18.
  4. News: Northup: Survey shows her tied with Fletcher. Stephenie. Steitzer. The Kentucky Post. Covington, Kentucky . 2007-02-02. A2.
  5. Web site: 22007 Gubernatorial Contests and Virginia General Assembly Update. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.