2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma explained

Election Name:2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma
Country:Oklahoma
Type:legislative
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma
Next Year:2020
Seats For Election:All 5 Oklahoma seats to the United States House of Representatives
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Last Election1:5
Seats1:4
Seat Change1: 1
Popular Vote1:730,531
Percentage1:61.97%
Swing1: 7.01%
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Last Election2:0
Seats2:1
Seat Change2: 1
Popular Vote2:428,452
Percentage2:36.35%
Swing2: 9.42%

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the five U.S. representatives from the state of Oklahoma, one from each of the state's five congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held on June 26 and runoff elections were held two months later on August 28.[1] The state's U.S. House delegation Republican majority changed from 5–0 to 4–1. As of 2023 this is the only time since 2010 that Democrats won any house race in Oklahoma.

Results summary

District

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma by district:[2]

scope=col rowspan=3Districtscope=col colspan=2Republicanscope=col colspan=2Democraticscope=col colspan=2Othersscope=col colspan=2Totalscope=col rowspan=3Result
scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"!scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"!scope=col colspan=2!scope=col colspan=2
scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"%
150,129 59.30% 103,042 40.70% 0 0.00% 253,171 100.00% Republican hold
140,451 65.02% 65,021 30.10% 10,530 4.87% 216,002 100.00% Republican hold
172,913 73.87% 61,152 26.13% 0 0.00% 234,065 100.00% Republican hold
149,227 63.06% 78,088 33.00% 9,323 3.94% 236,638 100.00% Republican hold
District 5 117,811 49.30% 121,149 50.70% 0 0.00% 238,960 100.00% Democratic gain
Total 730,531 61.97% 428,452 36.35% 19,853 1.68% 1,178,836 100.00%

District 1

Election Name:2018 Oklahoma's 1st congressional district election
Country:Oklahoma
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma#District 1
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma#District 1
Next Year:2020
Image1:File:Rep. Kevin Hern official photo, 116th congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Kevin Hern
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:150,129
Percentage1:59.3%
Nominee2:Tim Gilpin
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:103,042
Percentage2:40.7%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Vacant
After Election:Kevin Hern
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Map Size:225x225px

See also: Oklahoma's 1st congressional district. The 1st district is located in the Tulsa metropolitan area and includes Creek, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner and Washington counties. Incumbent Republican Jim Bridenstine, who had represented the district since 2013, resigned on April 23 to become NASA Administrator. He was re-elected unopposed in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+17.

Republican primary

During his initial election in 2012, Bridenstine self-imposed a three term limit. Bridenstine confirmed that he will honor his term-limit pledge.[3]

Bridenstine became Administrator of NASA in the Donald Trump administration, and resigned on April 23.[4]

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Runoff

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Runoff results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[11] November 5, 2018
align=left Inside Elections[12] November 5, 2018
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] November 5, 2018
RCP[14] November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[15] November 5, 2018
538[16] November 7, 2018
CNN[17] October 31, 2018
Politico[18] November 2, 2018

Results

District 2

Election Name:2018 Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district election
Country:Oklahoma
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma#District 2
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma#District 2
Next Year:2020
Image1:File:Markwayne Mullin official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Markwayne Mullin
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:140,451
Percentage1:65.0%
Nominee2:Jason Nichols
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:65,021
Percentage2:30.1%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Markwayne Mullin
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Markwayne Mullin
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Map Size:225x225px

See also: Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district. The 2nd district is located in the regions of Green Country and Kiamichi Country and includes the city of Muskogee and numerous sparsely populated counties. The incumbent is Republican Markwayne Mullin, who has represented the district since 2013. He was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2016.

Republican primary

Mullin had pledged to serve only three terms when he was first elected in 2012. During the 2016 campaign, Mullin stated he was reassessing his pledge, and refused to rule out running again in 2018.[19]

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Runoff results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018
align=left Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018
RCPNovember 5, 2018
Daily KosNovember 5, 2018
538November 7, 2018
CNNOctober 31, 2018
PoliticoNovember 2, 2018

Results

District 3

Election Name:2018 Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district election
Country:Oklahoma
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma#District 3
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma#District 3
Next Year:2020
Image1:File:Frank Lucas (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Frank Lucas
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:172,913
Percentage1:73.9%
Nominee2:Frankie Robbins
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:61,152
Percentage2:26.1%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Frank Lucas
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Frank Lucas
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Map Size:225x225px

See also: Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district. The 3rd district is located in Western Oklahoma. The largest district in Oklahoma and one of the largest in the country, it includes the Oklahoma Panhandle, Ponca City and the city of Stillwater as well as the Osage Nation. Incumbent Republican Frank Lucas, who had represented the district since 2003 and previously represented the 6th district from 1994 to 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 78% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+27.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018
align=left Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018
RCPNovember 5, 2018
Daily KosNovember 5, 2018
538November 7, 2018
CNNOctober 31, 2018
PoliticoNovember 2, 2018

Results

District 4

Election Name:2018 Oklahoma's 4th congressional district election
Country:Oklahoma
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma#District 4
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma#District 4
Next Year:2020
Image1:File:Tom Cole official congressional photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Tom Cole
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:149,227
Percentage1:63.1%
Nominee2:Mary Brannon
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:78,088
Percentage2:33.0%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Tom Cole
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Tom Cole
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Map Size:225x225px

See also: Oklahoma's 4th congressional district. The 4th district is located in South Central Oklahoma and includes the suburbs of Oklahoma City, such as the counties of Canadian, Comanche and Cleveland and numerous other sparsely populated counties. Incumbent Republican Tom Cole, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 70% of the vote in 20. The district had a PVI of R+20.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn

Runoff results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018
align=left Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018
RCPNovember 5, 2018
Daily KosNovember 5, 2018
538November 7, 2018
CNNOctober 31, 2018
PoliticoNovember 2, 2018

Results

District 5

Election Name:2018 Oklahoma's 5th congressional district election
Country:Oklahoma
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma#District 5
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma#District 5
Next Year:2020
Image1:File:Kendra Horn official portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Kendra Horn
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:121,149
Percentage1:50.7%
Nominee2:Steve Russell
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:117,811
Percentage2:49.3%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Steve Russell
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Kendra Horn
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)
Map Size:225x225px

See also: Oklahoma's 5th congressional district. The 5th district is located in Central Oklahoma and centered around the state capital, Oklahoma City, and the surrounding areas such as Edmond and Shawnee. Incumbent Republican Steve Russell, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of R+10. Democrat Kendra Horn won by a margin of under 1% in what was considered an upset.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Runoff results

General election

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Russell (R)
Kendra
Horn (D)
Undecided
SoonerPoll[24] October 29, 2018440± 4.66% align=center49%37%14%
VCreek/AMG (R-Russell)[25] October 14–15, 2018974± 3.14% align=center51%35%14%
VCreek/AMG (R-Russell)[26] September 24–25, 20181,407± 2.61% align=center50%37%13%
SoonerPollSeptember 15–25, 2018303± 5.63% align=center47%37%16%
VCreek/AMG (R-Russell)[27] September 4–6, 20181,182± 2.85% align=center49%35%16%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018
align=left Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018
RCPNovember 5, 2018
Daily KosNovember 5, 2018
538November 7, 2018
CNNOctober 31, 2018
PoliticoNovember 2, 2018

Results

External links

Official campaign websites for first district candidates

Official campaign websites for second district candidates

Official campaign websites for third district candidates

Official campaign websites for fourth district candidates

Official campaign websites for fifth district candidates

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Oklahoma Elections — 2018 . Oklahoma State Election Board . The State of Oklahoma . 20 August 2018.
  2. Web site: Johnson. Cheryl L.. Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018. Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. 2019-04-27. 2019-02-28. mdy-all.
  3. Web site: Congressman Jim Bridenstine says third term would be his last. Tulsa World. Krehbiel. Randy. November 10, 2015. November 22, 2016.
  4. News: GOP congressman being considered for NASA administrator in Trump administration. The Washington Post. Davenport. Christian. November 11, 2016. November 22, 2016.
  5. Web site: After ho-hum year for state political contests, 2018 will be 'transformational'. The Oklahoman. Casteel. Chris. October 17, 2016. November 4, 2016.
  6. Web site: Oklahoma AG Pruitt not considering run for Congress. Bartlesville Examiner-Enterprise. Thompson. Nathan. October 18, 2016. November 4, 2016.
  7. https://soonerpoll.com/wpcontent/uploads/2018/07/News9_CD1_Runoff.pdf SoonerPoll
  8. Web site: TIM. 12 September 2018.
  9. Web site: Amanda Douglas is the latest candidate for Native Vote18 in Oklahoma - IndianCountryToday.com. 12 September 2018.
  10. https://soonerpoll.com/newcomer-kevin-hern-has-advantage-in-first-congressional-district-open-seat/ SoonerPoll
  11. Web site: 2018 House Race Ratings . Cook Political Report . October 30, 2018.
  12. Web site: 2018 House Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 5, 2018.
  13. Web site: 2018 House . . November 5, 2018.
  14. News: Battle for the House 2018 . RCP . November 5, 2018.
  15. Web site: Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings . . November 5, 2018 .
  16. Web site: Silver . Nate . 2018 House Forecast . . November 6, 2018 . August 16, 2018.
  17. Web site: CNN's 2018 Race Ratings . cnn.com . Turner Broadcasting System . 30 July 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181031235918/https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/key-races . 31 October 2018.
  18. News: Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election. POLITICO. 2018-09-07.
  19. Web site: Oklahoma Congressman Mullin may reassess term limits pledge. The Oklahoman. Casteel. Chris. March 30, 2016. November 22, 2016.
  20. Web site: JACKSON, JARRIN DALE - Candidate overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. 12 September 2018.
  21. https://soonerpoll.com/mullin-nears-50-percent-in-four-man-race-for-re-election-to-congress/ SoonerPoll
  22. http://www.news9.com/story/39208380/exclusive-news9-poll-oklahomas-congressional-incumbents-drawing-strong-support SoonerPoll
  23. Web site: McGuigan . Patrick B. . At Oklahoma City event, Kendra Horn launches campaign for Democratic nomination in the Fifth Congressional District . Capitol Beat OK . August 6, 2018 . April 8, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200408135631/https://capitolbeatok.worldsecuresystems.com/reports/at-oklahoma-city-event-kendra-horn-launches-campaign-for-democratic-nomination-in-the-fifth-congress . dead .
  24. http://www.news9.com/story/39394781/exclusive-news-9-poll-shows-congressman-steve-russell-has-strong-lead SoonerPoll
  25. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20181022_OK5.pdf VCreek/AMG (R-Russell)
  26. http://www.steverussellforcongress.com/assets/VCreekAMG_Sept%202018-General-Brushfire-Sept%2024-25-Russell-Poll-Memo.pdf VCreek/AMG (R-Russell)
  27. http://www.steverussellforcongress.com/assets/VCreekAMG_Sept2018-General-Benchmark-Russell-Poll.pdf VCreek/AMG (R-Russell)