2016 United States Senate election in Missouri explained

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections.

The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri. It was held concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.

Incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander.^{[1] [2]} Despite losing, Kander's margin of defeat was 15.7 percentage points closer than that of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in the concurrent presidential election in the state. This is also the closest a Democrat has come to winning this seat since 1980.

Republican primary

Despite being considered an "establishment" Republican, Blunt did not face serious Tea Party opposition due to his efforts to cultivate relationships with activists in Missouri, his effectiveness at "threading the needle" by keeping conservative and establishment Republicans fairly satisfied, and the open gubernatorial election, which attracted the most attention from Republicans.^[3]

Candidates

Declared

• Roy Blunt, incumbent senator since 2011^{[1] [4]}
• Ryan Luethy, financial services worker^[5]
• Bernie Mowinski, retired army sergeant and perennial candidate^[6]
• Kristi Nichols, sales manager, Tea Party activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[6]

Withdrew

• Christopher Batsche, businessman (running for MO-07)^{[6] [7] [8]}

Declined

• Todd Akin, former U.S. Representative from 2001 to 2013 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012^{[9] [10]}
• John Brunner, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (running for Governor)^[11]
• John Lamping, former state senator^[12]

Polling

Poll source				Roy Blunt	John Brunner	Other	Undecided
align=left	Remington Research Group[14]	January 2015	1,355	± ?		60%	40%	—	—
align=left	Remington Research Group[15]	February 2–3, 2015	747	3.6%		50%	19%	—	32%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Cori Bush, pastor, nurse and co-director of the Truth Telling Project^{[16] [17]}
• Jason Kander, Secretary of State of Missouri since 2013^{[18] [19]}
• Robert Mack, military veteran^[20]
• Chief Wana Dubie, marijuana activist^{[21] [22]}

Declined

• Jay Nixon, Governor of Missouri since 2009^[23]
• Mike Sanders, Jackson County Executive, former Jackson County prosecuting attorney and former chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party^{[24] [25]}
• Clint Zweifel, State Treasurer of Missouri since 2009^{[26] [27]}

Results

Third party and independent candidates

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

• Jonathan Dine, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012^[6]
• Herschel Young^{[28] [29]}

Results

Constitution primary

Candidates

Declared

• Fred Ryman^[6]

Results

Green Party

Candidates

Declared

• Johnathan McFarland^{[30] [31]}

Write-in

• Gina Bufe^[32]
• Patrick Lee^{[33] [34] [35]}

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report[37]		November 2, 2016
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball[38]		November 7, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report[39]		November 3, 2016
align=left	Daily Kos[40]		November 8, 2016
align=left	Real Clear Politics[41]		November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt (R)	Jason Kander (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey[42]	November 1–7, 2016	1,368	± 4.6%	44%	align=center	51%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey[43]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	1,119	± 4.6%	43%	align=center	51%	—	6%
Emerson College[44]	November 4–5, 2016	750	± 3.5%	45%	align=center	46%	5%	4%
SurveyMonkey[45]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	879	± 4.6%	45%	align=center	51%	—	4%
Clarity Campaign Labs[46]	November 1–2, 2016	1,036	± 3.1%	align=center	47%	45%	—	8%
SurveyMonkey[47]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	774	± 4.6%	45%	align=center	51%	—	4%
Public Policy Polling[48]	October 31 – November 1, 2016	1,083	± 3.0%	align=center	46%	44%	—	9%
Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)[49]	October 31 – November 1, 2016	1,722	± 2.4%	align=center	48%	44%	3%[50]	5%
DFM Research[51]	October 27 – November 1, 2016	508	± 4.4%	41%	41%	9%	9%
SurveyMonkey[52]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	649	± 4.6%	46%	align=center	50%	—	4%
Emerson College[53]	October 28–31, 2016	650	± 3.8%	45%	45%	6%	4%
Monmouth University[54]	October 28–31, 2016	405	± 4.9%	align=center	47%	46%	3%	5%
SurveyMonkey[55]	October 25–31, 2016	671	± 4.6%	45%	align=center	51%	—	4%
Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R)[56]	October 27–28, 2016	1,698	± 2.4%	align=center	47%	44%	4%[57]	5%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[58]	October 24–26, 2016	625	± 4.0%	align=center	47%	46%	2%	5%
Emerson College[59]	October 17–19, 2016	600	± 3.9%	44%	44%	4%	8%
Google Consumer Surveys[60]	October 12–14, 2016	521	± 4.2%	45%	align=center	52%	—	3%
Monmouth University[61]	October 9–11, 2016	406	± 4.9%	align=center	46%	44%	3%[62]	7%
Emerson College[63]	September 9–13, 2016	600	± 3.6%	40%	align=center	42%	10%	8%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[64]	September 1–2, 2016	1,275	± 3.0%	align=center	47%	40%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling[65]	August 26–27, 2016	1,055	± 3.0%	align=center	47%	43%	—	10%
Monmouth University[66]	August 19–22, 2016	401	± 4.9%	align=center	48%	43%	3%	7%
Remington Research Group (R)[67]	August 5–6, 2016	1,280	± 3.0%	align=center	47%	40%	6%[68]	7%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon[69]	July 23–24, 2016	625	± 4.0%	align=center	47%	43%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling[70]	July 11–12, 2016	959	± 3.2%	align=center	41%	38%	—	21%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[71]	March 25–26, 2016	927	± 3.2%	align=center	44%	37%	—	19%
DFM Research[72]	March 17–24, 2016	674	± 3.8%	align=center	49%	35%	2%	14%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)[73]	October 30–31, 2015	783	± 3.5%	align=center	43%	33%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling[74]	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	align=center	40%	35%	—	25%
Remington Research Group (R)[75]	February 19, 2015	957	± 3.2%	align=center	49%	36%	—	14%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Boone (Largest city: Columbia)
• Clay (Largest city: Kansas City)
• Platte (Largest city: Kansas City)

By congressional district

Blunt won 6 of 8 congressional districts.^[76]

District	Blunt	Kander	Representative
		17%	79%		Lacy Clay
		48.3%	48.2%		Ann Wagner
		55%	40%		Blaine Luetkemeyer
		56%	39%		Vicky Hartzler
		34%	61%		Emanuel Cleaver
		54%	41%		Sam Graves
		64%	32%		Billy Long
		63%	33%		Jason Smith

See also

• United States Senate elections, 2016

External links

Official campaign websites

• Roy Blunt (R) for Senate
• Jason Kander (D) for Senate
• Fred Ryman (C) for Senate

Notes and References

1. News: Ahead of the 2016 curve: Roy Blunt has a fundraiser on election night 2014 . The Washington Examiner . November 4, 2014 . November 13, 2014.
2. News: Missouri U.S. Senate Results: Roy Blunt Wins . 2017-08-01 . The New York Times . 2018-02-12 . en-US . 0362-4331.
3. News: Blunt had a clear primary path, despite some tea party gripes . Springfield News-Leader . Deirdre Shesgreen . February 17, 2015 . February 18, 2015.
4. News: Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016 . . Levinson . Alexis . January 28, 2015 . February 17, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150129222855/http://atr.rollcall.com/senate-races-2016-retirement-guide/ . January 29, 2015 . dead .
5. News: Blunt, Kander easily win their Senate nominations Politics stltoday.com . August 12, 2021 . St. Louis Post-Dispatch . August 3, 2016.
6. News: Three file for sheriff's race . . Horvath . Dave . February 23, 2016 . February 29, 2016 . February 28, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160228060402/http://www.neoshodailynews.com/news/20160223/three-file-for-sheriffs-race . dead .
7. News: Missouri Secretary of State shares plans for 2016 U.S. Senate run . KTVO.com . Hoak . Ashley . October 23, 2015 . January 10, 2016.
8. News: Flanigan joins field for Commissioner . . Hacker . John . February 29, 2016 . February 29, 2016 . March 7, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160307144259/http://www.carthagepress.com/article/20160229/NEWS/160228981/?Start=2 . dead .
9. News: Akin won't rule out 2016 run against Blunt . Jim Stinson . Springfield News-Leader . July 15, 2014 . November 13, 2014.
10. News: Akin: I'm not running for Senate . Kendall Breitman . Politico . February 26, 2015 . February 26, 2015.
11. News: Blunt has clear primary path, despite some tea party gripes . . Shesgreen . Deirdre . February 17, 2015 . February 17, 2015.
12. News: July 2016 Tip Sheet . The Missouri Times . July 15, 2015 . August 12, 2015.
13. http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/8/39/83953d0c-ee40-515f-b2ed-09b4628d0b8f/579bfeeb3b680.pdf.pdf St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon
14. http://politicmo.com/2015/01/26/roy-blunt-polling Remington Research Group
15. https://www.scribd.com/doc/254712240/MO-Gov-MO-Sen-Remington-Research-for-Missouri-Alliance-for-Freedom-Feb-2015 Remington Research Group
16. News: Rivas . Rebecca . February 11, 2016 . Black Challengers of Democrat incumbents fight with party over access . February 16, 2016.
17. Web site: Cori Bush for U.S. Senate . February 16, 2016 . February 13, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160213144159/http://coribush.com/ . dead .
18. News: Kraske . Steve . Secretary of State Kander pondering U.S. Senate run in Missouri . January 30, 2015 . . January 30, 2015.
19. News: PRESS RELEASE: Jason Kander Announces He Will Run for United States Senate . February 19, 2015 . The Missouri Times . February 19, 2015.
20. Web site: Blunt, Kander looking ahead to November in Senate race. Columbia Missouran. Salter. Jim. July 23, 2016. October 31, 2021.
21. Web site: "Chief Wana Dubie" announces bid for U.S. Senate from Missouri. July 16, 2015.
22. News: Wana Dubie officially first US Senate candidate from Salem . February 25, 2016.
23. News: Cillizza . Chris . Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon steps forward, but toward what? . April 8, 2014 . The Washington Post . September 19, 2013.
24. News: Faughn . Scott . 2016 Outlook . The Missouri Times . October 20, 2014 . November 14, 2014.
25. News: Sanders says he won't run for state office . . Fox . Jeff . February 27, 2015 . March 1, 2015.
26. News: Bologna . Giacoma . Show Me Nothing: Missouri Members Entrenched . October 2, 2013 . Roll Call . October 2, 2013.
27. News: Missouri Treasurer Zweifel won't run for office . Kansas City Star . November 18, 2013 . November 19, 2013.
28. Web site: Herschel L. Young – Biographical Profile and Positions on the Issues . Vote-MO . August 2, 2016 . July 15, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160715032034/http://vote-mo.org/Intro.aspx?State=MO&Id=MOYoungHerschelL . dead .
29. Web site: Herschel Young Candidate for the People . Facebook . August 2, 2016.
30. Web site: Johnathan McFarland- Candidate for United States Senator . Missouri Green Party . September 1, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160912001927/http://missourigreenparty.org/jonathanmcfarland/ . September 12, 2016 . dead .
31. Web site: Kander Certifies Green Party for November Ballot . Missouri Secretary of State . September 1, 2016.
32. Web site: First-time competitor brings passion for race walking, politics to Senior Games . Blatchford . Taylor . Columbia Missourian . June 10, 2016 . June 12, 2016.
33. Web site: A unique campaign . May 25, 2016 . August 31, 2016.
34. Web site: Missouri Senate campaign swims against popular political current, but can it have an impact? . Dundon . Eric . July 7, 2016 . August 31, 2016.
35. Web site: Lee: No kicking the can . August 31, 2016.
36. https://www.c-span.org/video/?416111-1/candidates-face-missouri-senate-debate Video
37. Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
38. Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
39. Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
40. Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
41. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
42. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey
43. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey
44. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_4c95f9bb0b874960a67b0cb7c019efd8.pdf Emerson College
45. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey
46. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/11072016_sen.pdf Clarity Campaign Labs
47. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey
48. https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143859/MOResults113-Final.pdf Public Policy Polling
49. http://themissouritimes.com/35272/less-one-week-new-poll-shows-greitens-first-time/ Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)
50. Jonathan Dine (L), Fred Ryman (C), and "Others" each with 1%
51. http://www.smartmoslb.org/Missouri%20Rail%20Survey%20November%202016%20(002).pdf DFM Research
52. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey
53. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_6ee2070379ba4a88bff29b1fa5aae9e0.pdf Emerson College
54. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_110116/ Monmouth University
55. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey
56. http://themissouritimes.com/35134/blunt-opens-lead-kander-new-poll/ Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R)
57. "Others" with 3% and Fred Ryman (C) with 1%
58. http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-leads-clinton-blunt-kander-a-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_a4a48a47-485f-5e9a-b6f6-1dba7c7deb48.html St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon
59. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_98fe8b3559f64960a573ecad7dc22ec9.pdf Emerson College
60. https://medium.com/@alexanderpower/new-senate-polls-in-iowa-missouri-and-wisconsin-336c7224c30d#.iv3n77xn8 Google Consumer Surveys
61. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_101216/ Monmouth University
62. Jonathan Dine (L) with 3%
63. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b53ca6b673c14cdab9d68832bd7e74cb.pdf Emerson College
64. http://themissouritimes.com/33365/poll-shows-republicans-koster-well/ Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)
65. http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MOResults1.pdf Public Policy Polling
66. http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_082316/ Monmouth University
67. https://www.stlmag.com/news/in-missouri-voter-polls-president-governor/ Remington Research Group (R)
68. Jonathan Dine (L) with 4% and Fred Ryman (C) with 2%
69. http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/blunt-kander-locked-in-close-senate-race/article_6a3d3ad3-612d-510e-9ca4-fc41059fddaf.html St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon
70. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf Public Policy Polling
71. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/MO_Scout_March_2016.pdf Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)
72. http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article69418112.html DFM Research
73. http://moscout.com/blunt-leads-kander/ Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)
74. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MO_81115.pdf Public Policy Polling
75. http://fox4kc.com/2015/02/20/blunt-beats-kander-in-early-political-poll/ Remington Research Group (R)
76. https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e39cf7d4-f655-4f39-a7ff-178ca55673fa