2018 United States Senate election in Virginia explained

The 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who had been his party's unsuccessful nominee for vice president two years earlier, was re-elected to a second term in office, winning this seat by the largest margin since 1988. This was the first election since 1994 that anyone had been re-elected to this seat.

The Republican Party of Virginia central committee voted to select the Republican nominee for Senate by a primary rather than a convention. Corey Stewart, chair of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, won the Republican nomination on June 12, 2018, after defeating Delegate Nick Freitas and Christian minister E. W. Jackson.^[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Tim Kaine, incumbent U.S. Senator, former governor, and Democratic nominee for vice president in 2016^[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Corey Stewart, chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013 and candidate for governor in 2017^[3]

Eliminated in primary

• Nick Freitas, state delegate^[4]
• E. W. Jackson, pastor, attorney, veteran, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2013^[5]

Failed to qualify

• Minerva Diaz, veteran, businesswoman, and Christian minister^{[6] [7]}
• Bert Mizusawa, former Deputy Undersecretary of the Army, retired U.S. Army Major General and candidate for VA-02 in 2010^[8]
• Ivan Raiklin, veteran and businessman^[9]

Declined

• Dave Brat, U.S. Representative^{[10] [11]}
• Eric Cantor, former Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives^[10]
• Barbara Comstock, U.S. Representative^{[10] [11]}
• Ken Cuccinelli, former attorney general and nominee for governor in 2013^{[10] [12]}
• Tom Davis, former U.S. Representative^{[10] [12]}
• Jim Gilmore, former governor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008 and candidate for president in 2008 and 2016^{[13] [11] [14]}
• Jimmie Massie, former state delegate^{[12] [13] [11]}
• Pete Snyder, technology entrepreneur and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2013^{[10] [13] [11]}
• Scott Taylor, U.S. Representative^[11]
• Rob Wittman, U.S. Representative^{[10] [15]}
• Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, nominee for the U.S. Senate from California in 2010 and candidate for president in 2016^[16]
• Ed Gillespie, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014,^[12] and nominee for governor in 2017
• Shak Hill, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for VA-10)^[17]
• Laura Ingraham, talk radio host, author, and conservative political commentator (endorsed Corey Stewart)^[18]
• Bob McDonnell, former governor of Virginia (endorsed Nick Freitas)^{[19] [20]}
• John Moore, University of Virginia law professor and former diplomat^{[21] [22]}
• Frank Wagner, state senator and candidate for governor in 2017^[12]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nick Freitas	E. W. Jackson	Corey Stewart	Other	Undecided
Atlantic Media & Research (R-Stewart)[23]	May 14–18, 2018	355	± 5.2%	9%	5%	align=center	32%	–	–
Christopher Newport University[24]	February 5–28, 2018	422	± 2.5%	6%	7%	align=center	16%	5%[25]	align=center	66%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dave Brat	Corey Stewart	Scott Taylor	Other	Undecided
University of Mary Washington[26]	align=center rowspan=2	September 5–12, 2017	562 LV	± 5.2%	11%	15%	align=center	20%	12%	align=center	38%
	867 RV	± 4.1%	9%	12%	align=center	20%	9%	align=center	45%

Results

Third party candidates

• Matt Waters, director of development at Students For Liberty,^[27] received the Libertarian Party nomination on March 10, 2018.^{[28] [29]} On June 28, 2018, he also received the endorsement of the Constitution Party of Virginia.^[30]
• Winsome Sears, a Republican former state delegate, ran as a write-in candidate.^[31]

General election

The election featured a match-up of two Minnesota-born Virginians: Republican Corey Stewart was born in Duluth, Minnesota, and Democrat Tim Kaine was born in Saint Paul, Minnesota.^[32] All polls leading up to the election showed Kaine defeating Stewart by a wide margin.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[33]		October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[34]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[35]		November 5, 2018
Fox News[36]		July 9, 2018
CNN[37]		July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[38]		August 14, 2018

Debates/Townhalls

Host
network/sponsors! rowspan="2"

Date	Link(s)	Participants
Tim Kaine (D)		Corey Stewart (R)	Matt Waters (L)
PBS NewsHour/Virginia Bar Association	July 21, 2018	[39]	Invited	Invited	—
Hampton University/Liberty University	September 20, 2018	[40]	Invited	Invited	—
WRC-TV	September 26, 2018	[41]	Invited	Invited	—
Liberty University	October 3, 2018	[42]	Invited	Invited	—

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	Corey Stewart (R)	Matt Waters (L)	Other	Undecided
University of Mary Washington/SSRS[43]	September 4–9, 2018	512 LV	± 5.8%	align=center	52%	36%	5%	0%	4%
	704 RV	± 5.0%	align=center	51%	33%	5%	1%	7%
	801 A	± 4.6%	align=center	49%	30%	6%	1%	9%
Cygnal/POOLHOUSE (R)[44]	August 22–24, 2018	1,119	± 2.8%	align=center	50%	46%	–	–	4%
Roanoke College[45]	August 12–19, 2018	512	± 4.3%	align=center	51%	34%	4%	–	11%
Virginia Commonwealth University[46]	July 10–30, 2018	757	± 3.6%	align=center	49%	26%	5%	–	20%
Quinnipiac University[47]	June 21–25, 2018	1,082	± 3.7%	align=center	54%	36%	–	0%	9%
Roanoke College[48]	May 20–30, 2018	555	± 4.2%	align=center	44%	33%	–	–	23%
Christopher Newport University	February 5–28, 2018	1,562	± 2.5%	align=center	56%	32%	–	1%	11%
University of Mary Washington/PSRAI[49]	align=center rowspan=2	September 5–12, 2017	562 LV	± 5.2%	align=center	53%	36%	–	–	7%
	867 RV	± 4.1%	align=center	54%	39%	–	1%	4%

with Nick Freitas

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	Nick Freitas (R)	Other	Undecided
Roanoke College	May 20–30, 2018	555	± 4.2%	align=center	45%	30%	–	25%
Christopher Newport University	February 5–28, 2018	1,562	± 2.5%	align=center	56%	33%	1%	10%

with E. W. Jackson

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	E. W. Jackson (R)	Other	Undecided
Roanoke College	May 20–30, 2018	555	± 4.2%	align=center	45%	30%	–	25%
Christopher Newport University	February 5–28, 2018	1,562	± 2.5%	align=center	56%	32%	1%	11%

with Dave Brat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	Dave Brat (R)	Undecided
University of Mary Washington	align=center rowspan=2	September 5–12, 2017	562 LV	± 5.2%	align=center	54%	36%	7%
	867 RV	± 4.1%	align=center	54%	41%	3%

with Barbara Comstock

with Carly Fiorina

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	Carly Fiorina (R)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac University[51]	April 6–10, 2017	1,115	± 2.9%	align=center	57%	33%	–	7%
Gravis Marketing	March 14–19, 2017	3,097	± 1.6%	align=center	53%	41%	–	7%
Quinnipiac University[52]	February 10–15, 2017	989	± 3.1%	align=center	57%	36%	2%	5%

with Laura Ingraham

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	Laura Ingraham (R)	Other	Undecided
Quinnipiac University	April 6–10, 2017	1,115	± 2.9%	align=center	56%	35%	–	7%
Quinnipiac University	February 10–15, 2017	989	± 3.1%	align=center	56%	36%	2%	7%

with Scott Taylor

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	Scott Taylor (R)	Undecided
University of Mary Washington	align=center rowspan=2	September 5–12, 2017	562 LV	± 5.2%	align=center	52%	37%	7%
	867 RV	± 4.1%	align=center	53%	41%	4%

Results

Kaine won the election by a wide margin.^[53]

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Chesterfield (no municipalities)
• Fluvanna (largest city: Lake Monticello)
• Lynchburg (independent city)
• James City (no municipalities)
• Stafford (no municipalities)
• Waynesboro (independent city)

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Buckingham (largest town: Dillwyn)

Results by congressional district

Kaine won 7 of 11 congressional districts.^[54]

District	Kaine	Stewart	Representative
		48%	50%		Rob Wittman
		54%	44%		Elaine Luria
		70%	28%		Bobby Scott
		64%	34%		Donald McEachin
		48%	50%
		41%	56%		Ben Cline
		52%	46%		Abigail Spanberger
		78%	19%		Don Beyer
		35%	64%		Morgan Griffith
		60%	38%		Jennifer Wexton
		73%	25%		Gerry Connolly

See also

• United States House of Representatives election in Virginia, 2018

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Tim Kaine (D) for Senate
• Corey Stewart (R) for Senate
• Matt Waters (L) for Senate

Notes and References

1. Web site: Divided Virginia GOP committee chooses primary to decide Kaine challenger for 2018 U.S. Senate race. Graham. Moomaw. Richmond Times-Dispatch. December 10, 2017.
2. Web site: Tim Kaine kicks off Senate re-election bid, says he plans to win 'the economic argument' . April 2, 2018. Richmond.com. April 2, 2018.
3. News: Wilson . Patrick . July 12, 2017 . Corey Stewart to announce run for U.S. Senate on Thursday, sources say . July 12, 2017 . Richmond Times-Dispatch.
4. News: Del. Nick Freitas jumps into GOP field to challenge Sen. Tim Kaine in 2018. The Washington Post. December 9, 2017. December 10, 2017. Jenna. Portnoy.
5. News: E.W. Jackson announces U.S. Senate campaign, attacks Corey Stewart. The Washington Post. December 11, 2017. December 11, 2017. Jenna. Portnoy.
6. Web site: Fifth Republican files for Senate–Updated. Jeanine. Martin. February 14, 2018.
7. Web site: Committee/Candidate Search. classic.fec.gov.
8. News: Adviser to Trump campaign files to run as a Republican against Sen. Kaine. The Washington Post. February 13, 2018. February 13, 2018. Jenna. Portnoy.
9. Web site: Veteran of 20 years, Ivan Raiklin, announces U.S. Senate run. November 16, 2017. SalemTimes-register.com. December 10, 2017.
10. News: An Early Look at 2017. Bearing Drift. Spiker. DJ. October 7, 2016. October 20, 2016.
11. News: Fiorina tops GOP list for potential Virginia Senate contest. Politico. Severns. Maggie. November 6, 2016. November 17, 2016.
12. News: GOP Starts to Eye Race to Replace Kaine in Senate. Real Clear Politics. Arkin. James. October 4, 2016. October 4, 2016.
13. News: Kaine VP bid fully nationalizes Va. politics. Richmond Times-Dispatch. Schapiro. Jeff E.. July 30, 2016. October 4, 2016.
14. News: Gilmore Considering Senate Run if Clinton, Kaine Elected. The Loudoun Tribune. Butler. Ryan. October 25, 2016. November 17, 2016.
15. News: Forbes a candidate for Trump's Navy secretary, Wittman considers his options. Richmond Times-Dispatch. Cain. Andrew. November 11, 2016. November 17, 2016.
16. Web site: Virginia Senate race: Carly Fiorina rules out run, Jim Gilmore 'considering' candidacy. CNN. September 8, 2017. September 8, 2017. Andrew. Kaczynski.
17. News: Shak Hill Announces Candidacy for VA 10th District Congressman. Fairfax Free Citizen. August 2, 2016. August 9, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20170810053231/https://fairfaxfreecitizen.com/2017/08/02/shak-hill-announces-candidacy-va-10th-district-congressman/. August 10, 2017. dead.
18. Web site: I'm totally helping Corey, this'll be fun.. July 14, 2017.
19. Web site: Bob McDonnell, Former Governor of Virginia: I'm Not Running For U.S. Senate In '18. JohnFredericksShow. April 27, 2017. YouTube.
20. Web site: Trower: 2018 U.S. Senate GOP Top 10 Potential Candidates to Win Against Kaine - Bearing Drift. June 23, 2017.
21. Web site: More Republicans to join Stewart in '18 Senate primary. Alex. Koma.
22. Web site: x.com. August 18, 2024.
23. https://www.scribd.com/document/379979998/VA-Sen-Atlantic-Media-Research-R-for-Corey-Stewart-May-2018 Atlantic Media & Research (R-Stewart)
24. https://web.archive.org/web/20180306204321/http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/March-5-Report-Final-2.pdf Christopher Newport University
25. Ivan Raiklin* 1%, Other 4%. *Failed to qualify.
26. http://www.umw.edu/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2017/09/UMW-VA-Survey-2017_Third-Topline-0920.pdf University of Mary Washington
27. Web site: Waters to Seek Nomination for US Senate. Standard News Wire. February 21, 2018. March 10, 2018.
28. Web site: Virginia Libertarians Nominate Candidate for U.S. Senate. Bearing Drift. March 11, 2018.
29. Waters for US Senate Turns in Over 14,000 Signatures. Matt Waters Campaign.
30. Constitution Party of Virginia Endorses Matt Waters for US Senate. September 25, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180831123123/http://constitutionpartyofva.org/cpv20180628pressrelease.pdf. August 31, 2018. dead.
31. Web site: Former GOP state delegate wants Republicans to write in her name for US Senate instead of voting for Corey Stewart. PATRICK WILSON Richmond. Times-Dispatch. Roanoke Times.
32. News: The Minnesota Matchup: Tim Kaine v. Corey Stewart? . June 13, 2018 . Richmond Times-Dispatch.
33. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
34. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
35. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Ratings Changes. centerforpolitics.org.
36. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
37. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
38. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
39. https://www.c-span.org/video/?448771-2/virginia-senate-debate
40. https://www.c-span.org/video/?451686-1/senator-tim-kaine-corey-stewart-face-virginia-senate-town-hall
41. https://www.c-span.org/video/?451980-1/virginia-senate-debate
42. https://www.c-span.org/video/?452367-1/virginia-senate-town-hall
43. http://www.umw.edu/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2018/09/UMW-VA-Survey-2018_Topline1.pdf University of Mary Washington/SSRS
44. https://mailchi.mp/d742aca54d43/poolhouse-and-cygnal-release-virginia-statewide-poll?e=06a69c7d62 Cygnal/POOLHOUSE (R)
45. https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_news_politics_aug_2018 Roanoke College
46. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KdZosFKBCMeKuYO-bdYSoRrqfegsgg_h/view Virginia Commonwealth University
47. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/va/va06262018_vwlc17.pdf Quinnipiac University
48. https://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/2018%20May%20politics%20Topline.pdf Roanoke College
49. http://www.umw.edu/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2017/09/UMW-VA-Survey-2017_Third-Topline-0920.pdf University of Mary Washington/PSRAI
50. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-virginia-polling-2017-gravis-marketing/ Gravis Marketing
51. https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2450 Quinnipiac University
52. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/va/va02172017_Vj25mkbx.pdf/ Quinnipiac University
53. Web site: Tim Kaine Wins Virginia Senate Race Against Corey Stewart. November 5, 2018 . NBC Washington.
54. Web site: DRA 2020. Daves Redistricting. August 18, 2024.